Strategic Vision

"Presence of mind . . . is nothing but an increased capacity of dealing with the unexpected."- Clausewitz

The attack on the Anuradhapura Airbase once again brings us back to the stark realities of war. Unforeseen events in war will surprise even the most season generals and policy makers. Hence, this attack should be a wakeup call to both military thinkers and policy makers and an opportune time to reflect on a strategic vision.

Sun Tzu one of the greatest military strategists warned his political masters “ know your enemy and know your self” Even centuries after Sun Tzu this maxim is still the primary principal for all who go to war. The combined air and ground offensive by the “black tigers” has several tactical purposes and warrants a careful study before policy makers embark on any rash moves.

This attack by the LTTE invites the GOSL to make several tactical and strategic blunders, which could be detrimental to the overall strategic military thinking that has produced significant results. This attack is essentially an attack behind enemy lines for the LTTE and is a deep penetration attack that is aimed at destabilizing the current offensive mindset of the military to readjust the current military positions and deployment. After three decades of vacillating between different conventional warfare tactics the armed forces have now adjusted to mobile Special Forces warfare tactics with close air support. This strategy produced exceptional results during the last few years for the military and the LTTE wants a reversal to semi-conventional warfare so that they have better access to information and fixed targets to take aim at. Therefore, this attack should not be a catalyst to change the way we have been conducting the war. It would be utterly irresponsible for the policy makers to change course and fight a semi conventional war based on a political agenda right now. The lesson is “ Stay the Course”

The second tactical blunder that the LTTE has invited the GOSL to make is the needless propaganda bombing raids in LTTE controlled areas. Arial bombing undoubtedly has its pros and cons. However, insight of the LTTE using human shields it becomes impossible to distinguish between civilian and military targets and civilians will be targeted. The implication of this is far reaching in terms of the current pressure that is mounting on the GOSL about humanitarian concerns in the North and the East. Last week UN issued a strongly worded confidential note to the government and warned that the humanitarian situation in Sri Lanka continues to deteriorate with possible devastating consequences." Any offensive against the LTTE in northern Sri Lanka would have major humanitarian consequences, including displacement of up to 400,000 civilians," This comes in the backdrop of the US ambassador and the EU raising humanitarian concerns of the civilian population in the North and the East. GOSL does not operate in a vacuum and we cannot defy the international community this is the reality of this war for all developing countries. It is better that the GOSL realizes this now whether they like it or not and play within these constraints. The aim of a secessionist insurgency is to show that the government cannot govern and protect its people but the government has the herculean task of governing and protecting the population with internal and external constraints. This is the reality and GOSL must deal with it.

The third strategic blunder that the LTTE wants the GOSL to make is relying on statistics and figures of success that has been circulating in policy circles last week. Measuring success is important but it should not be the deciding factor in guiding policy in counterinsurgency efforts. Success in counterinsurgency efforts should not be measured by the amount of physical infrastructure destroyed but by the number of hearts and minds won. This is essentially a political effort. Moreover, it is a HUMIT effort. All military policy makers should take this seriously, in their policy planning. The attack on the Anuradhapura base was carried out with small arms and light weapons. It is impossible to destroy such weapons through offensive military action. The only way to neutralize this is to gather information through the population and through informants on the ground. GOSL’s current emphasis on territory captured and physical infrastructure destroyed should not be allowed to distract the overall strategic planning and throw away the strategic advantage that the military possess.

In war, more than anywhere else things do not turn out as we expect. In times of war when unforeseen events take place it takes courage, determination and a strategic vision to stay the course and not to succumb to the tactical ploys of the enemy.

SDS

LTTE Destroy 08 Aircrafts Damage Several at Anuradhapura - 3rd Lead

At least 08 air crafts have been destroyed and several were damaged in a combined land and air attack by the Black Tiger suicide squad in the Air Force Base camp in Anuradhapura.
American built Beech Super King (CT5748) craft,and 2 Russian built MI24 gunships, a Bell 212 helicopter, a Chinese built K8 trainer air craft and 3 more small crafts have been destroyed by the Tigers,informed sources said.

Several other air crafts including MI17 transport helicopters and Un-manned Air Vehicles sustained severe damages and possibly out of operation. Two ZLIN Z 143LSi air crafts bombed over the sky of Anuradhapura, while specially trained tiger guerrilla infiltrated from two different locations in to the camp and attacked the hangers. At least two bombs fell inside the camp.

Military fired by anti air craft guns,but air tigers managed to escape over Vauniya officials said.American built Bell 212 helicopter air borne from Vauniya,came under friendly fire and crashed in to Mihinthale killing all 04 on the board.An anti air craft missile hit by the air force fell in to a nearby school premises and killing at least 15 Buffaloes, a resident said.

LTTE spokesman Rasiah Illanthirian said 21 Black Tigers were taken part the attack.Soon after the LTTE planes left from Anuradhapura Kfir and MiG jets bombed locations near Kilinochchi using para lights,LTTE said. Sri Lankan Air Force Three officers and four men from the Air Force have been killed during this mornings attack. Three were killed during the initial confrontation and another four killed at the Bell-212 crash-site. Eight more have been injured.

Members of the Air Force Regimental Special Forces are still hunting for the LTTE unit that launched the attack on the Anuradhapura Airbase. They are being assisted by the Sri Lanka Army. Several sectors have now been cleared inside the base, but several more uncleared areas still remain. The group is thought to be trapped in these sectors. The exact number of fighters in the small unit is unknown but is estimated to be around eight.

The most valuable aircraft lost in the attack is the Beechcraft which was provided by the United States government. The craft was used for reconnaissance missions on LTTE targets, including the recent attack on the Vishwamadu LTTE Research and Development Headquarters.

Defence analysts observe that the Air Force's security breach may have reversed the psychological advantage achieved by the Army and the Navy over the LTTE in recent months.

1st Lead

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam launched a devastating combined air and ground attack on the Anuradhapura Airbase at 3.10am destroying four aircraft. Fighting still continues. Tiger units that entered the airbase have so far destroyed two MI-24 Helicopter Gunships, Sri Lanka's only Beechcraft and one K-8 Trainer Jet. Another Bell-212 Helicopter transporting reinforcements crashed at Mihintale. The airbase is situated in Anuradhapura Town. Two Tamil Ealam aircraft dropped three bombs on the base and left unharmed.

The attack was a Commando style raid involving a small unit of fighters that had entered the base from Nurawa Wewa area, according to sources. Sri Lanka Air Firce's Number 10 Fighter Squadron made a circling of Kilinochchi around 5am.