The Budget

Sri Lanka Government under President Mahinda Rajapakse won the 3rd reading of the 2008 Budget today (14) by 47 votes. 38 MPs abstained from voting. The victory is a relief for the state engaged in a deadly duel of skirmishes with the LTTE in the Vanni.

Several observations can be made of the victory today;

1. A lack of political intelligence on the part of the Opposition and the JVP- The opposition expected the Ceylon Workers Congress to vote against the budget. The JVP expected the government to lose and once a new government is formed after elections, to agree to support President Rajapakse conditionally. However, a meeting between the CWC and Minister Basil Rajapakse seem to have changed the CWC's mind. Until the very last moment, neither the UNP nor the JVP knew of the change in the minds of the CWC MPs.

2. No change to the policy of war or shape of economy- No matter who won or lost, the current state of affairs cannot easily be changed. The impression in the minds of the south is that a victory in the Vanni is imminent. Therefore any policy decisions by a new regime to change the present status quo of limited or all-out war against the LTTE would be political suicide. The other issue is the state of the economy with significant borrowings from commercial sources.

3. The third observation, which applies to the propaganda in general is the overemphasis on the war to win the 2008 Budget. The war has been used to veil economic and political mismanagement and a breakdown in law and order by many administrations since 1983. It is true that the Security Forces have delivered some success. But that success was delivered under less political and economic pressures. This trend is potentially dangerous and may place an added burden on the Armed Forces to deliver more and fast. The government must find alternative success stories other than the war and lift the current overemphasis on the war allowing greater flexibility for the Security Forces to do what they do best.