Thursday, January 10, 2008

Too Little, Too Late....

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The Head of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Major General Lars Johan Solvberg and the LTTE’s Political Wing Head B. Nadesan had met in Kilinochchi today (10) where the LTTE had shed crocodile tears for the abrogation of the CFA.

Nadesan had said that the LTTE was ‘shocked and disappointed that the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) has unilaterally abrogated the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA)’. He claims that ‘The CFA was signed with the expectation that it will form the basis for bringing normalcy to the Tamil homeland that was devastated by the GoSL military offensives and for creating permanent peace.’

Nadesan maybe quite oblivious, or rather, purposefully negligent of the fact that a Cease-fire is never about expectations but facts, procedures and binding agreement. It is an agreement reached between two parties to end hostilities, which is a voluntary undertaking by the parties themselves. It is not externally imposed, but self-imposed. Unfortunately, this was not the case with the LTTE. They refused to be bound by its own voluntary undertaking. The above graph is a measure of that lie in quantified terms compiled by a prominent peace NGO in Colombo.

From February 2002, the LTTE attempted to escalate the conflict by killing intelligence operatives of the government, indiscriminate bombings, assassination of political opponents etc. The following is an analysis of the figures released by SLMM at the very early stages of the CFA from February 2002 to August 2005.

• Total number of violations was 1514 out of which 1436 were committed by the LTTE and 78 by the GoSL. The percentage being LTTE- 95% and GoSL- 5%

• 58% of LTTE violations were comprised of child recruitment violations

• Total number of Offensive military operations related violations were 28 out of which 25 were committed by the LTTE whereas 3 were by the GoSL.

• The total percentage of Offensive military operations comprised of 89% LTTE 11% by the government

• 95% of the Restore to Normalcy related violations were committed by the LTTE whilst the GoSL was accountable for 5% of such violations

The LTTE is proposing its continued adherence to a CFA to which it had never adhered to in the first place. Why did the organization, which has violated the CFA over 10,000 times over a period of seven years claiming that it will adhere to it in future? What evidence is there to suggest that it will do so? The move is nothing but a complete bluff to outmaneuver the Government politically. Will the International Community or the facilitators have the stomach to call this a bluff remains to be seen.

Why is the LTTE revisiting a CFA which it so blatantly violated? The following are some possible scenarios. (This analysis is not exhaustive).

1. To regain international recognition to its continued use of violence based on a grievance of harassment of Tamils by Sinhalese (The Tamil homeland concept is beyond any recognition internationally).

2. To buy time like it did since the 1987 Indo-Lanka Peace Accord to recuperate, rearm, retrain, re-strengthen its cadre and re-strategize for war. For example, Pirapaharan said he supported the Indo Lanka Peace Accord in July 1987, but a few months later on October 10th 1987, Pirapaharan himself said LTTE will withdraw from the Accord.

3. Take-away the peace initiative from the Government and appear to bargain from a moral high-ground over the Government.

4. To rebuild its political image under Nadesan since the demise of Balasingham and Thamilselvan.

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