A Tigers' promise

Military Intelligence has warned that the LTTE will soon make an all-out effort to launch a Ceaseless-Wave-type of operation in the Wanni. A small indication of its intent was witnessed this morning when Sea Tigers from Veduthalthivu attacked a combined Army-Navy post at Pallimunai in Mannar Island. Only one soldier was injured and another went missing in the attack. The point was manned by 6 men at the time.

The Tigers have been promising its supporters that it will allow the troops to come deeper into their areas and then drive them out swiftly like in Operation Jayasikurui. Operation Jayasikurui was challenged by six waves of LTTE attacks whereas only one such wave, though much limited in nature, was launched against the troops in Mannar sector in this ongoing unnamed operation.

There is undoubtedly some parallels between Operation Jauasikurui and the current operation, particularly in the time consumed in the battlefield. The troops engaged in the ongoing operation have already spent nearly a year, since July 2nd 2006 in the front lines. Jayasikurui was abandoned within 18 months of its start in May 1997. But this is where the commonalities usually end.

Although some fatigue would have settled in by now among the infantry, the Army seems to be maintaining the same momentum still. The Tigers todate, have not counter attacked as successfully as before in 1997. No significant reversals have been witnessed either.

The guerrillas maybe under some pressure to pull-out a breath-taker. The next 6-8 months will be crucial for them in demonstrating to their people that they are still capable of not only terrorism, but also fully conventional warfare.