For the sake of future operations

The Indian Navy is in Sri Lanka with a strong force that includes the elite Black Cat Commandos for the SAARC Summit. Indian PM Manmohan Singh is to arrive in the island in two days. Indian spy satellites hover over the Vanni, observing the progresses made by the Army for unknown reasons.

As speculated by some sources, the Sri Lankan Army is under no pressure to stop the war abruptly. This is false information. India will certainly not pressure the government of Sri Lanka to end the war because Sri Lanka can continue, with or without India, with help from China and Pakistan. China is currently the largest supplier of weapons and armaments and has replaced Japan as the largest single donor to Sri Lanka.

The Tigers, through the political offices of Norway had officially requested the government to enter into a temporary cease-fire, which the government has now rejected. This is while intelligence sources have warned of a Tiger plan to launch a make-or-break grand attack against advancing troops. It is not so much a case of if, but when they would launch such an attack.

If the Tigers fail to do this within the next month or two, the Army will definitely capture Kilinochchi. From there, they will surround Mullaithivu and Pooneryn. As always, the Tigers will use deception and wait for an opportune moment to cause maximum damage. But they must do this before the Army reaches Kilinochchi. Any time after that would be too late for the guerrillas.

An opportunity may arise, if one is given. Otherwise, tigers would have to create their own (opportunity). This might very well happen in the East if the STF and the police do not step up to the task. Tigers have started avoiding direct confrontations and are trying to preserve their remaining cadres, especially those with experience.

Meanwhile troops in the Vanni front have begun to thin out, having advanced 40-50 kilometers in places. Elite units have been deployed early. Some have died, others have received injuries. But the morale is high. The addition of the 62 Division, in a semi-offensive role, is crucial for this advance to continue further.

The other potential debacle is the political deadline issue by the government for the military operations. The focus is again shifting from the battlefield to the North Central Provincial Council Elections. This is an all too familiar road, one that has led us to more bad things than good things in the past.

dA and DW