Monday, August 18, 2008

Signs of the 'Last Battle'?

The LTTE is showing signs of defending Kilinochchi. Several units deployed in Jaffna and Weli Oya have been recalled to an unknown location in Kilinochchi. Sources speaking to this site confirmed that the objective maybe to launch a cease-less-wave-type attack on the 57 Division.

The Tigers, in their last attempt, realized that forcing the Army into a temporary withdrawal is insufficient. Out of the many Divisions attacking it from all directions, the 57 is the most lethal as it is aiming at the Tiger's heart.

According to the latest information pieced together, small units have been recalled to Kilinochchi, including mortar units from Weli Oya, which is significant. Contrary to expectations, LTTE has not abandoned its fight in Tunukkai and Mallavi, although the former is virtually surrounded.

It is estimated that the Tigers are cable of organizing around 500 hardcore cadres for a fight at this point in time. Strategically however, they must perform a herculean task of launching one or a series of attacks capable of completely upsetting the Army's strategy, tactics, morale and leadership. There will be no half measures.

In doing so, LTTE too must face the risk of losing a good many of its hardcore fighters in the attack. The Army sees this as an opportunity to get at hardcore LTTE fighters while losing only regular troops and not the Special Forces like in some previous Ceaseless Waves once being called in at the eleventh hour.

If an attack of this magnitude is executed, the LTTE must ensure that it reaches the rear of the 57 Division and then box-in the troops. This was formally an LTTE tactic now being used predominantly by the Army. The last such attack was beaten back by heavy artillery and MBRL fire.

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