Prepare for the end!

DefenceWire wishes to announce with great authority that we are now approaching the last days of the LTTE in its known form. We wish to answer some of the key questions on people's minds today.

Prabhakaran

The last confirmed sighting of the LTTE Leader came on the 26th of March. This was when a mid-level cadre, an eye witness, surrendered to the Army. There are 'indications' of Prabha's presence still. This is how we 'know' he is there.

For example, when monitoring LTTE transmissions in code, LTTE field 'commanders' may request to talk to Banu or Poddu, at which point, the answer given in code states that "They have been called for a meeting". Another indicator is the "do-or-die" mentality of the remaining hardcore cadres. They will not fight so hard unless it is to protect their leader.

Prabhakaran is still believed to be in Mullaivaikkaal. Mullaivaikkaal is divided into Mullaivaikkaal proper, Vellamullaivaikkaal and Karayarmullaivaikkaal. The Army is in both Karayarmullaivaikkaal and Vellamullaivaikkaal.

LTTE fighting stength and morale

Based on our estimates, we can reasonably assume a cadre strength of around 200 hardcore fighters and un unknown number of soft core cadres. Their morale is low, as they have realized the end is near. But our readers must understand that any soldier fights well when they face imminent death.

Although the main reason behind these cadres' willingness to fight to their death is that they have no other alternative, the Army still has a healthy respect for their bravery, commitment and capability.

The ground reality is that the Tigers are fighting hard. Recent fighting in Karayarmullaivaikkaal saw the Tigers even recapturing lost bunkers and holding them for 8 hours until being driven-out or killed by the Army. The game will continue only till the hard core reserve is burnt-out. Burnt-out hard core reserves will be easy picking for the elite soldiers of the Army.

Military Intelligence, which has been gradually cultivating a 'relationship' with senior LTTE leaders indicate that the remaining Tiger strength will fight to its death. Although some of the LTTE leaders earlier indicated a willingness to defect, they soon realized their fate at the hands of the Army. Knowing there is nowhere to go, the only option these senior leaders and their cadres have is to fight to their death.

The nature of the operation

Even in this very last phase, the Army has not altered its winning formula, which we at DefenceWire revealed to the world for the first-time back in 2007-8. The formula is the two doctrines "Kill 10 a day" and "Don't die for our land, let them die for theirs".

Even the hardest stone starts to crack when beaten continuously. The Tigers are no exception. Although there are casualties to regular troops, it minimizes overall risks like exhaustion and fatigue, dependency and risk of undue danger to elite units etc.

DefenceWire has received credible information that either today or tomorrow, both the 58 and 59 Divisions will cross into the NFZ. An area, roughly 2 miles long and 2 miles wide, roughly half the size of the NFZ has been declared a CSZ.

The final scenario

As the Army moves into the areas surrounding the NFZ, Tigers and their hostages will move into the CSZ. It is the Sri Lanka Army that is dictating terms to the LTTE and deciding when, where, how and by whom the LTTE leader and his associates are killed. There is nothing anyone can do to prevent this. There will not be any high-profile prisoners lingering in state prisons in two weeks.