Ripe for Regime Change?

With the recent shift in political alignment of two members of parliament and the renewed anti-government rallies, there is speculation of a regime change. This sentiment is expressed by some of the international think tanks, sources close to the government, the opposition and most notably in the inner circles of the Indian Congress Party. These speculations may or may not come true but is it ripe for regime change?

In the recent political history of Sri Lanka, we have seen many attempts that have succeeded in toppling the governments. These movements have a singular motive to topple the government and to herald a new political culture. However, recent experiences have shown us that “the day after plan” of the reformists do not produce anything new. Once the discontent sets in the time is ripe for another regime change. This is the cycle of regime change in Sri Lanka

The real hard truth is that reformists in Sri Lanka have run out of options. There is no reason to believe that a new regime and a new political culture will bring new hope. The current political situation in Sri Lanka is quite volatile and internally or externally driven regime change will not work for Sri Lanka

The current military victories of the armed forces have given a renewed sense of pride to the people in the south and people do see the military in a more credible light than they see their politicians. There is popular support for the military in Sri Lanka. This creates a conducive situation for the military take over if the military victories are devalued and any attempt is made to overthrow this present regime. While India has an abiding interest in Sri Lanka, India will not pave the way for a military take over. Therefore India will do some hard calculations before making any strong commitments to the opposition parties in Sri Lanka supporting a regime change.

The present government in Sri Lanka does not have a favorable standing with the international community. There will be a tremendous amount of pressure on the government in the future from the international community. India had a very frustrating time dealing with Sri Lanka in the past few months and would work towards a regime change in collaboration with the Sri Lankan opposition. These efforts will be closely watched by some of the major players that have assisted Sri Lanka in its military sphere. Especially the renewed ties with China for both the government and the JVP will be decisive factors that prevent regime change. Reliable sources reveal that the Congress Party is willing to pump in colossal amounts of money for a regime change. However, the success of such a move will depend on political mobilization in the South and a reversal of military victories none of which seems to be in the distance horizon.

Contributed to DefenceWire by SDS who identifies himself as a researcher on International Security