Attrition, Maneuvers and Phrrhic War

The Sri Lanka Military has significantly altered its tactics of conventional war against the LTTE. The Army seems to have changed its decision to march large columns of men into Kilinochchi, Mullaithivu, Mannar (LTTE controlled) and Pooneryn. The LTTE’s strength was defence in depth. This strategy is to yield space, buy time, attack logistics, weaken by forcing Army to spread-out and to ensure that the longer the advance, the more the resistance. In the past several months and maybe due to a long Cease-fire, the LTTE seem to have entered a bunker-war defensive-mentality. However, the LTTE’s defence in depth ability still stands.

The Military is avoiding what is termed a Pyrrhic War where victory is assured at tremendous cost to the victor. For example, the Battle of Vukovar, which was an 87-day siege of a village in Croatia by the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA), assisted the Croatians from obtaining independence even though the JNA won the battle. The Military seems apprehensive of this fact and instead have resorted to a type of war which is a cross between Attrition Warfare, Manoeuvre Warfare, Force Concentration and Ambush.

The objective of Attrition Warfare is to wear down the enemy’s men and materials over a period of time until the party with the greatest manpower and materials win. The concentrated attacks on LTTE assets at sea and land demonstrate this strategy. The LTTE too struck back by destroying some Air Force assets. In Attrition Warfare, Victory is usually decided on the capacity of the victor to sustain the replacement of lost assets and manpower. In Manoeuvre Warfare, the objective is to incapacitate an enemy in a shocking series of attacks and through disruptive movements. The strike on Thamilselvan and the continuous movement of troops in Vanni FDLs by the Army is an indication of this. LTTE is also using the same strategy in attacks in the south and elsewhere. Force concentration is an old habit of the Military with large bases and numbers of troops stationed in areas close to enemy territory. Ambush or the element of surprise has been a vital strategy for both sides (particularly LTTE).

In the coming months, there will be considerable strain on both sides to replace their losses over a long period of time. The patience, maneuvers, strategies and tactics of both sides will be tested to the maximum. At the doorsteps to Kilinochchi, Pyrrhic War or not, the Military would not abandon the concept of defeating the LTTE anytime soon. With much of its Deep Sea weapons smuggling operations disrupted, the LTTE would have to work harder at replenishing its men and material losses. The Military would have to demonstrate results to ruling politicians who, in turn must demonstrate the success of their policy to the people. Currently the Military is riding high on a series of victories but have suffered a setback in Anuradhapura. The targeting of civilians is another lateral expansion of the war, which has already claimed a large number of civilian lives. Whatever the result maybe, the signs are that the fighting is to escalate further and would last longer than many assume it would.