Friday, December 14, 2007

The Budget

Sri Lanka Government under President Mahinda Rajapakse won the 3rd reading of the 2008 Budget today (14) by 47 votes. 38 MPs abstained from voting. The victory is a relief for the state engaged in a deadly duel of skirmishes with the LTTE in the Vanni.

Several observations can be made of the victory today;

1. A lack of political intelligence on the part of the Opposition and the JVP- The opposition expected the Ceylon Workers Congress to vote against the budget. The JVP expected the government to lose and once a new government is formed after elections, to agree to support President Rajapakse conditionally. However, a meeting between the CWC and Minister Basil Rajapakse seem to have changed the CWC's mind. Until the very last moment, neither the UNP nor the JVP knew of the change in the minds of the CWC MPs.

2. No change to the policy of war or shape of economy- No matter who won or lost, the current state of affairs cannot easily be changed. The impression in the minds of the south is that a victory in the Vanni is imminent. Therefore any policy decisions by a new regime to change the present status quo of limited or all-out war against the LTTE would be political suicide. The other issue is the state of the economy with significant borrowings from commercial sources.

3. The third observation, which applies to the propaganda in general is the overemphasis on the war to win the 2008 Budget. The war has been used to veil economic and political mismanagement and a breakdown in law and order by many administrations since 1983. It is true that the Security Forces have delivered some success. But that success was delivered under less political and economic pressures. This trend is potentially dangerous and may place an added burden on the Armed Forces to deliver more and fast. The government must find alternative success stories other than the war and lift the current overemphasis on the war allowing greater flexibility for the Security Forces to do what they do best.

11 comments:

tangara said...

Third point in this article is the most important fact..Thank you defencenet..

TropicalStorm said...

Well balanced article. Even times of war there is a burden on the incumbent government to provide adequate support for economic activity to flourish. In many ways the present govt has shown remarkable versatility in opening up economic opportunities, which however have failed to yield quantifiable results due to the fall out from the escalated war. This makes a strong argument for further liberalization of the economy and privatization of state held white elephants that contribute a burden which eventually passes down to the tax payer. But then, with retarded bed fellows such as the JVP who have been supporting the govt until now, that was not an option. But the new and emerging alliances that marginalize the leftist lunatic fringe provides the govt a valuable opportunity to pursue this path of economic activity.

tangara said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
GoldenEagle said...

Defencewire

I e-mailed you guys a week or so ago, did you receive the e-mail?

tangara said...

Rajarata I left you a comment in the previous posting.

defencewire, I replied to your email few days ago.

Ranil said...

Rajarata
Machang i'm not a RW fan...also not a big fan of MR due to pretty obvious reasons. The only thing that's going for them IMHO is the way they tackle the war. But i guess that's good enough considering the long term benefits although the present shocking levels of corruptions and mismanagement.
My real name is what i use as my screen name here so don't really have a choice when it's associated to a person like RW :(
On your question on naval experts? There are lotsa reasons...for starters my pops is ex-navy and i'm a recreational sailor and have a huge interest in naval affairs.
And for some reason info about the sea tigers is very limited and SLN get very little "exposure" for the hugely difficult job they do.
If we can protect our seas and have full control over it...ltte will easily starve itself to death and because of that SLN can play a huge role to end this war.
My online excursions on many blogs have revealed that there are quite a few "experts" on SLA and SLAF matters but very few on SLN...
Especially when it comes to details, specs on sea tigers...

And for those who were talking about HP ratings on sea tiger boats etc... as we all know SLN has banned anything over 25hp for civilians use but having being on light craft with a 25hp motor, especially 2 stroke ones... this motor can propel 19foot displacement hull quite fast...If one can hook a 25hp motor to a rather smaller craft with a planing hull design and a narrower beam...i'm quite sure it'll be pretty fast... Hook about 4 motors and you're in business...
Seatigers don't need lotsa HP or a major attack to make things bad for us...

MathaMathica said...

In our history, most of the time, we have subcontracted to foreigners such ‘dirty’ professions such as military, commerce/navigation, foreign relations etc. South Indians and Arabs used to do these things for us.

Might be because we were a very hard working and rich agricultural nation. But look at the end result – our sisters have become Arabian house maids and a small time smuggler thug in the North is challenging our very existence.

Enough complacency. We must encourage our kids to venture into all professions specially where intelligence and technicality matters.

MR’s son has set a very good example by joining the navy. Our island nation must become a major actor in the Indian ocean in the coming centuries.

We must stop the Chulavamsa chapter now and begin a Nava Mahavamsa. We have lived as Chuulas for too long a time.

If there is a will, there is a way.

tangara said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tangara said...

Mathematica,

Very good points...

However,
With one strike every three days, JVP is taking the country to Stone age...

For an example, Uni students these days does only one thing..Keep striking at a drop of a hat thanks to JVP student unions..That is the only thing they learned after 4 years of "studies"..After that they go to Lipton Circus to demand jobs from the GOVERNMENT..

That is what the JVP called revolution..

JVP has not given up the idea of distroying higher education of thosands of students in this country..Their failed revolutions cost the country thousands of lives(99.99% percent of them were Sinhalese and most of them were uni students") and billions of ruppees in collateral damages.

Yet, Sri Lankans love JVP...

I would say we have to demand reforms from the JVP to get rid of their culture of STRIKES...

Better still NEVER vote For that party...

MathaMathica said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MathaMathica said...

Tangara,

Marx, Lenin and the lot who laid the rotten egg called Communism, considered themselves to be so illuminated as to think in behalf of the proletariat while non of them had ever handled a sickle or a hammer . The central committee of the JVP is made up of such people. Students/workers follow JVP because they are fed up of the Brown Sahibes of the UNP and AnUura type idiots of the SLFP.

Marx & Co is dead and gone together with their books. No communist party in Europe refers to their outdated text any more. China is not at all Marxist, CPI is the return of the Mandarinat.

JVP central committee idiots are responsible for setting brother against brother in SL, students/army... all poor people – Wonder why the big guns of the Vimukthi Peramuna hide in Great Great Britain when things become sour in SL!!

JVP can be reformed with few mottoes like “Api okkome, Rajavaru, Okkome Vasiyo …”

If we dont raise the general level of intellect, and leave others to think in our place (Ex. Ranil’s consultants at 200K$/month), we will have no future.

SL is the land of Buddhi. In this epoch of knowledge/IT revolution, it is not too late to remind us this unique heritage handed to us by our forefathers and strive for our rightful place.

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