Thursday, January 10, 2008

Too Little, Too Late....

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The Head of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Major General Lars Johan Solvberg and the LTTE’s Political Wing Head B. Nadesan had met in Kilinochchi today (10) where the LTTE had shed crocodile tears for the abrogation of the CFA.

Nadesan had said that the LTTE was ‘shocked and disappointed that the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) has unilaterally abrogated the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA)’. He claims that ‘The CFA was signed with the expectation that it will form the basis for bringing normalcy to the Tamil homeland that was devastated by the GoSL military offensives and for creating permanent peace.’

Nadesan maybe quite oblivious, or rather, purposefully negligent of the fact that a Cease-fire is never about expectations but facts, procedures and binding agreement. It is an agreement reached between two parties to end hostilities, which is a voluntary undertaking by the parties themselves. It is not externally imposed, but self-imposed. Unfortunately, this was not the case with the LTTE. They refused to be bound by its own voluntary undertaking. The above graph is a measure of that lie in quantified terms compiled by a prominent peace NGO in Colombo.

From February 2002, the LTTE attempted to escalate the conflict by killing intelligence operatives of the government, indiscriminate bombings, assassination of political opponents etc. The following is an analysis of the figures released by SLMM at the very early stages of the CFA from February 2002 to August 2005.

• Total number of violations was 1514 out of which 1436 were committed by the LTTE and 78 by the GoSL. The percentage being LTTE- 95% and GoSL- 5%

• 58% of LTTE violations were comprised of child recruitment violations

• Total number of Offensive military operations related violations were 28 out of which 25 were committed by the LTTE whereas 3 were by the GoSL.

• The total percentage of Offensive military operations comprised of 89% LTTE 11% by the government

• 95% of the Restore to Normalcy related violations were committed by the LTTE whilst the GoSL was accountable for 5% of such violations

The LTTE is proposing its continued adherence to a CFA to which it had never adhered to in the first place. Why did the organization, which has violated the CFA over 10,000 times over a period of seven years claiming that it will adhere to it in future? What evidence is there to suggest that it will do so? The move is nothing but a complete bluff to outmaneuver the Government politically. Will the International Community or the facilitators have the stomach to call this a bluff remains to be seen.

Why is the LTTE revisiting a CFA which it so blatantly violated? The following are some possible scenarios. (This analysis is not exhaustive).

1. To regain international recognition to its continued use of violence based on a grievance of harassment of Tamils by Sinhalese (The Tamil homeland concept is beyond any recognition internationally).

2. To buy time like it did since the 1987 Indo-Lanka Peace Accord to recuperate, rearm, retrain, re-strengthen its cadre and re-strategize for war. For example, Pirapaharan said he supported the Indo Lanka Peace Accord in July 1987, but a few months later on October 10th 1987, Pirapaharan himself said LTTE will withdraw from the Accord.

3. Take-away the peace initiative from the Government and appear to bargain from a moral high-ground over the Government.

4. To rebuild its political image under Nadesan since the demise of Balasingham and Thamilselvan.

52 comments:

hemantha said...

Very good article. Excellent graphical presentation. It tells more than million words would be able to. From now on this graph would be used by many. Don't be angry at them but be proud of your work.

ga said...

Great analysis,

look at the height of that worm.

I think the best quote I can give for this is:

"the Tigers, even at this juncture, stood ready to implement every 'clause of the agreement'"

defenceAnalyst said...

hemantha,
Point well taken. Thank you.

ga,
Interesting quote.

onecountry said...

Very good info.

onecountry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
onecountry said...

This is the kind of data our ministers like Rambukwella must have when facing international media. Just verbal diarhea without facts doesnt work.

Ninja Bandara said...

This data is no secret and accesible to all responsible people. It is said that it is not possible to wake up one who is pretending sleeping. IC and LTTE both sleep on the same bed.

boyphp said...

The CFA came into vogue in Apr 2002which is 67 months back. The graph shows figures upto Aug 2005. What about the remaining 30 months which have been conveniently chopped off from the chart? :)

defenceAnalyst said...

boyphp,
Give me the data and I will do the analysis. But the point is, by this time the trust was broken. By the way, these data sets are taken from SLMM. They were used by a powerful Pro-LTTE NGO at Javelock Road, Colombo.

Panhinda said...

This graph should be pasted front page on defence.lk nationalsecurity.lk. TamilNet has started writing articles appealing to Indians and the IC. Its quite shocking to know LTTE was shocked the CFA was abrogated. These tricks and deceptions are now well known by people who know LTTE track record. However there are stupid and new comer policy makers around the world who may think LTTE is honest. There should be no room for errors and become complacent at this stage. Counter propaganda by the govt has always been unprofessional yet some would say effective. The time is high to take this a notch or two higher or give it to a professional PR firm.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Indeed this is a big stick to beat the LTTE with, and the LTTE have no answer for it. Good analysis.

However 2 things need to be said too:

1.The LTTE 'violations'are mostly of a type of nature which is of a minor type,and, which should not lead to a CFA breakdown e.g. Child recruitment in their own territory, and flag raising in contested ones.Of course assassinations are serious ones.

2.The period after the graph would show SL Govt violations which are of a serious nature, even if fewer, which could(and did) lead to a CFA breakdown--e.g. Massive military offensives into clearly demarcated territory and assassinations.

3.SLMM: My respect for SLMM is at an all-time high.This analysis is the biggest proof of their impartiality.

Moral of this analysis: It would be best to place International Peacekeepers on the ground to ensure actual implementation of any new CFA and prevent such recurrences.

Attack is the Best Defence said...

boyphp... u idiot...
have a look here if u have any doubts...

CFA VIOLATIONS

and
CFA all violations

by the way.. don't insult that wonderful language php by behaving like an idiot tiger cub here

Sam Perera said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sam Perera said...

Sun Tzu's disciple,

Can you please tell us the source of information to support your assertion that LTTE ceasefire violations less significant? As you think, at what level LTTE's acts/attempts to kill MI personnel, Army personnel in Jaffna, politicians, army commander; closure of Mavil Aru anicut; major assault in Jaffna and Trinco stand?

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Sam,


I have no independent access to original SLMM document, so I presume the list by AITBD will do?

If the above list is any indication I would suggest the Sri Lankan Govt should shower the SLMM with rewards for being impartial, or, in my view , very light on the Govt? Why?

To give examples of being light on Govt:
1.Child Recruitment=0 . We all have read reports of UN and even SLMM, mentioning Govt forces rounding up kids for paramilitary use; So how can it be zero?

2.Assassinations(Govt 36 vs LTTE 119): How did they determine this number? What about the numerous assassinations of Tamils blamed on Govt and its paramilitaries with good reason, even by SLMM, AI, AHRC?

3.Torture=0. Can we really believe this??

4.Denied access to military areas=0. Again I remember instances where SLMM was cribbing of denial of access?

5.Abductions military related=0? Then who is doing all the thousands of abductions??

6.Deployment of weapons=0? ha ha

These are just illustrations of lacunae in this list.So again my reiteration--SLMM cannot be accused of partiality to Tigers. Quite the opposite .

***
Re the second part of your query, I 'll just subvert it to show that it is just rhetoric which applies to other side too:

""Can you please tell us the source of information to support your assertion that Govt ceasefire violations? As you think, at what level GoSL's acts/attempts to kill LTTE personnel, political LTTE workers in Jaffna, Tamil politicians, LTTE commanders; closure of A9 road; major assault in Jaffna ,Batticaloa and Trinco stand?""


Both sides in this conflict needs to be blamed ;there is no use playing number games.The LTTE have indeed provoked GoSL badly,but it is apparent the present Govt also egged it on to do so ,and in fact appear relieved to get an excuse to bring back the Military Option.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Real good analysis..

Where would the killing of Security Personnel by LTTE before Chandrika dissolved the government fall into.

That was the period where GOSL did nothing to protect themselves on the advice of PWP Ranil.

After Mahinda came to power also LTTE started violating the CFA in wholesale doing the same killing spree eliminating PLOTE, TELO, EPDP members and Security Forces members. Then MR took the matters into hand when Mavil-Aru was blocked (this is even after the assassination attempt on the Army Chief).

That was the period where we saw the true colours of CFA. If that kind of PWP Ranil's time, today half of our security people and innocent Sinhalese would have been dead.

Navindran said...

David Blacker has some good points on the benifits of the CFA to the Sri Lankan Military on defencenet. Good to have a read.

Now the LTTE wants to have the CFA reinstated is not because they are weak or not because they really want it back. They attacked Fonsenka and Gota to start the process for its removal. They wanted the Sri Lankan goverment to withdraw it. The great mahindha has done that for them.

He needs to stay in ower so he does what he needs to do so. As far as the LTTE is concerend, they do not need to attack at all. All the need to do is to hold out till the end of the year even if it a morsel of land.

This is because in all the times they withdrew from the peace accords. Hence after the intial sympathy for their cause the international community was pissed with them. Now the Sri Lanka government does not want peace and thats how the international community see it.

With all the battles fought after the CFA, the international community was relatively silent due to the CFA. Now they are against Sri lanka. Hence Mahindha needs to win the war and by the end of the year.

The economy is not doing well. Well if he left things like Sri Lankan airlines alone, it would have been fine but...

Commodity and food prices are going up. LTTE will only need to carry on their bombing offensive. Hence if he does not win the war by year end, Sri Lanka will be forced into another peace agreement.

The problem with many is that they often cherish strong leaders. They seem to get things done immediately and fast. However in the long run they wash out.

Sri Lankan military is under a good leadership. By luck they have a non interferring president as his brother is there to manage the affairs. However MR has not had a long term plan and its starting to show. A rigrous military operation needs long term financial as well as well as populus support. Neither I see will be available if the war is not won by end of 2008.

jiffy said...

whatever said and done sri lanka always prevails. historically and again today she will rise above this tamil problem. we have had problems from tamils in the past, and again today. and although it all seems so dire right now, the fate of our nation cant be decided by a bunch of thookodi bastards from jaffna.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Dear Jiffy,
""whatever said and done sri lanka always prevails. historically and again today she will rise above this tamil problem. we have had problems from tamils in the past, and again today. and although it all seems so dire right now, the fate of our nation cant be decided by a bunch of thookodi bastards from jaffna.""

That is a gung-ho statement. It may make one feel comfortable but may turn out to be self-deluding. The Arabs started out with similar views on the 'inferior'Jews--and got their butt kicked hightime.Even today many Arabs continue with this view.
The times have changed. You cannot use the logic of 12th century politics now.Racism is showing through clearly in your post, same for the Govt actions. Racism is dead(Internationally) today,and any state practising it is bound to suffer sooner or later. If you dont believe, ask the incredulous Serbs, as even the 'lowly'Kosovars are now on the brink of declaring independence.

It is high time to solve your country's problem--so both sides need to climb down from their high horses first.
***
I am waiting till June to see if the Govt military forces really achieve their boastful prediction of wiping out both LTTE and Mr Pirabhakaran. If it does, I will be truly amazed by the achievement( even though Govt military dwarfs LTTE maybe 15-20:1).
If not, most bloggers here would have to eat a humble pie.

Navindran said...

Defencewire I hope Jiffy's latest post gets removed. Jiffy I do not know if you are on which side of the coin. Whatever your feeling maybe, remember its your words that the LTTE supporters will use to justify the war and an independent homeland.

Moshe Dyan said...

LTTE want the CFA back because they are weak; this is the reality. They cannot win the confidence of the IC after killing MPs and civilians DELIBERATELY.

CFA saved the LTTE against the war on terror and the LRRP in 2002. The thermobaric weapons the LRRP had in 2001 and their explosives passed their used by date due to the CFA without use.

CFA recognised a state that was not really existant.

However, the true colours of the CFA is yet to be seen. Tigers brought very large haul of explosives to Colombo directly thanks to the CFA. Army is capturing weapons from Thoppigala every week, but, have they recovered any in Colombo? No. When these start exploding, the true "goodness" of the ceasefire will be felt.

None other than Laxman Kadir critisised the CFA in strongest terms. Only the likes of ranil and CBK were supportive of this stupid ceasefire. BTW it was not a ceasefire as firing never stopped.

If anyone followed defence news it is undeniable that the army that was only fighting an attrition war has started to move inwards to Vanni starting this week from Mannar and Vavuniya fronts. True enough muhamalai and weli oya fronts are maintained by the tigers.

The IC recognise SL in its complete boundaries as a member country of the UN; it also OKs SL's war effort with the tigers. The sticking point is not the war, but deliberate civilian casualties. Steps must be taken by the govt. to reduce these or to avoid deliberate attempts. Accidental or incidental attacks are still OK.

Observer said...

Guys,
Today FBI has exposed LTTE terrorists in an unprecedented manner today. Needless to say Hilary Clinton's comments about LTTE would be utterly humiliated by this.

GOSL should take the maximum advantage of this.

Please read,

From Express India site

From FBI site

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

This is called Rhetoric:

""GoSL want the CFA broken because they are politically weak; this is the reality. They cannot win the confidence of the IC after killing MPs and civilians DELIBERATELY.

CFA saved the SL military against total defeat in 2002. The captured weapons the LTTE had in 2001 and their explosives passed their used by date due to the CFA without use.

CFA recognised a state that was already existant on the ground if not on map.

However, the true colours of the CFA is yet to be seen. SL military brought very large haul of sophisticated aircrafts, Tanks, MBRLS, Surveillance equipments,warships ,UAVs,bombs etc thanks to the CFA. SL Army is firing weapons from Vavuniya every week, but, have they started cluster bombing Kilinochi? No. When these start exploding, the true "goodness" of the ceasefire will be felt.

None other than EU,India and USA supported the CFA in strongest terms. Only the likes of Mahinda and Gotabaya were against this great ceasefire. BTW it was not a complete ceasefire as firing never stopped fully ,but saved maybe 10,000 lives anyway.

If anyone followed defence news it is undeniable that the LTTE that was only fighting an defensive war has started to take the war to Colombo and the seas . True enough muhamalai and weli oya fronts are maintained by the SL army ,unable to penetrate.

The IC recognise LTTE in its complete boundaries of CFA as an equal party in the Island ; it also condemns SL's war effort with the tigers. The sticking point is not the war, but deliberate civilian casualties. Steps must be taken by the LTTE to reduce these or to avoid deliberate attempts. Accidental or incidental attacks are still OK.

Chaminda said...

LTTE wants to revisit the CFA because it makes imminent political sense. Why wouldn’t you? It makes no difference on the ground; they can carry out business as usual and still harp about the CFA. After much brain racking the only reason I can conceptualize for the abrogation of the ceasefire by the government is pressure from the JVP and arrogance of the government. I for the life of me cannot imagine why the government didn’t just continue the status quo.

As usual the government is again on the media defensive and as usual the LTTE on the offensive. We seem to be getting the military tactics right, but not the media.

What if the government pays a few hundred thousand to same high-end PR firm in the west to drive the media face of the government?

Chaminda said...

Jiffy

Unfortunately the fate of our nation HAS been decided by a bunch of “thookody bastards from Jaffna” and by a bunch of megalomaniac ass kissers from Kandy and Colombo. If not for the complete lack of foresight by Sinhala leaders such as SWRD and JR and the ruthlessness of the LTTE every single of us in Sri Lanka would be in an amazing place. We would be living in a miracle of development.

In short WE ALL FUCKED UP!! The leaders from all sides failed to compromise and isolate extremism from all sides. Point in case? 1983!!!

Renegade! said...

Defwire,

pls remove all comments that show racial hatred.we are here to discuss MILITARY matters,after all, not point out "you hutu,me tutsi-clean the toilet,i'm superior,etc.."(in rwanda)..

Renegade! said...

Defnet

Is it possible to have a section for videos/pictures uploading on the blog?..that would be useful..

Renegade! said...

Our forces should go for the kill-their current strategy of small-group operations has shown positive results,beginin all the way from sampur,ending with toppigala..however,certain reports point out,that the SLA is planning on launching a larger-scale offensive,which i feel can be disastrous eg:jaya no sikuru(victory not assured)..

The current small-group tactics of small-team assaults,raids & hits by LRRP units must continue..of course,when the SLA is faced by a big group of tigers,then we have to call in tanks & IFV's for fire-support..along wit the customary "HINDS"!!..

Renegade! said...

Our forces should go for the kill-their current strategy of small-group operations has shown positive results,beginin all the way from sampur,ending with toppigala..however,certain reports point out,that the SLA is planning on launching a larger-scale offensive,which i feel can be disastrous eg:jaya no sikuru(victory not assured)..

The current small-group tactics of small-team assaults,raids & hits by LRRP units must continue..of course,when the SLA is faced by a big group of tigers,then we have to call in tanks & IFV's for fire-support..along wit the customary "HINDS"!!..

Moshe Dyan said...

someone's diciple or henchman is talking nonsense. Can't he think for himself without following another?

CFA didn't save any lives; saving 10,000 lives is uttur absurd; only lunatics will belive that.

This war is far from over; the true colours of the illegal CFA can be seen in time to come when Ranil opened checkpoints like parting his mther's legs for the LTTE.

Any effective ceasefire with a terror group must be supported by an undertaking to at least decommission weapons.

CFA did not save the army; it saved the LTTE in 2002.

Had there been proper leadership in SL in 2002 we counld have finished the tigers. At that time tigers did not have the political power like today.

The globalisations of little lanka's problem after the CFA was highly disadvantageous. It brough such crap like luise arbour, allan rock,etc., etc.

If not of the CFA, tigers would be just a bunch of terrorists without any political power. CFA gave them everything.

It is no surprise that those who praise the CFA have supported tigers in their other posts.

Indeed tigers want the CFA back; it saved them once!!

THEY also want the Norwegians!!! Why not?

perein said...

Defencewire;
Is there a way we can get Monitoring comity members names and country of origin. I'm sure some of the guys living in with higher Sri Lankan supporters than the LTTE.
We could possibly get local Sri Lankan supporters to approach those guys and open the eyes.
We Can discuss the possible links out of this forum via a mail if/when needed.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Yin and Yang,
The Boss and Moshe Dyan? :))

No offense meant. Just coudn't resist it.

Moshe Dyan said...

Also please read in detail what Kadirgamar, Anadasangaree, Devananda had to say about the CFA. They are the political giants who would not let down the Tamils and the nation both.

They were the most against the CFA; why? please think?

Why Anandasanagree won the madanajith peace prize for being vehemantly against the CFA?

Why did he supported the abbrogation?

Ridiculous how political nobodies trying to beat Kadir/sangaree/devananda.

Panhinda said...

Hey Sun Tzu
/*
CFA saved the SL military against total defeat in 2002. The captured weapons the LTTE had in 2001 and their explosives passed their used by date due to the CFA without use.
*/

CFA did not save the military. What stopped the onslaught in Jaffna was a combination of newly acquired MBRL sand Gen. Janaka Perera's leadership. That was Jaffna only. Battilcoa, Mannar and Trinco was still strongly in the hands of the military. LTTE will never be able to capture and hold on to these areas with the available strength.

/*
I am waiting till June to see if the Govt military forces really achieve their boastful prediction of wiping out both LTTE and Mr Pirabhakaran.
*/

Pirbarakan is as good as gone. The govt 'boasted' they get the leadership and they delivered. Within a few months, Thamilselvam, Charles and Velu has been hit. This is not in the incompetent army you saw during Chandrika's regime. They promised the East and that was delivered. The LTTE logistics have been crippled after 11th ship was sunk off the southern coast. That wasn't even a promise but just happened. Internationally, the LTTE cannot raise money as they used to, USA' gradual dismantlement of LTTE arms network in progress. The LTTE's 'smoke and mirrors' and psyops gave the impression it cannot be beaten all these years and I must admit an incompetent and corrupt military did not help much either. But that was only before the military got its act together.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Pan Hinda,

Re first part of your post, I did preface it with 'rhetoric'for MDs sake.

Re second part--I will wait till the eggs are hatched. Instead of chickens ,if the eggs turn rotten?

We will find out by the military's deadline: June 2008.

jiffy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jiffy said...

navindan you are typical of a certain group of ppl in sri lanka. always appealing to the 'boss' and dobbing in co-workers

lol. and he accuses me of being a racial stereotype!

Sam Perera said...

Sun Tzu's disciple,

In response to your response to my question, I believe that LTTE committed so many such violations with impunity to the extent that the biased (in favor of LTTE) SLMM had no option other than adding just foot notes to the already existing long list of LTTE CFA violations. There are wiretaps floating around how SLMM instructing LTTE to blame a fictitious third party for CFA violations. In essence, I think that your hypothesis is on thin ice. Any way, thanks for bringing sanity and civility to the blog.

Panhinda said...

Sun Tzu,

/*
Re first part of your post, I did preface it with 'rhetoric'for MDs sake.
*/

It's commonly known as the 'scorched earth policy'. The charred remains of Chavakacheri would attest to this.

/*
We will find out by the military's deadline: June 2008.
*/

Yes why not wait and see? The I hope they have something left to build on in case they scrape a 'win'. Assuming a victory for LTTE, a small window will emerge for some R&R until the military takes a break and does it again in a few more years time. This pattern will go on until LTTE is beaten. So that is why I see the govt winning whatever the outcome. Does the words 'hollow victory' ring a bell with you?

Attack is the Best Defence said...

What FBI says about LTTE

GREAT NEWS this is!!!

jiffy said...

the pro-CFA lobby are really coming out of the woodwork now! if you liked the CFA you clearly have the delusion that the west will now stop supporting the gosl's war. this i doubt very much. the west talks a lot but in the end what matters is INDIA. we need INDIA behind us. the west will tag along so long as india is not openly hostile to colombo. this is the challenge facing sri lanka...not some CFA that's passed it's use by date.

my two cents.

Renegade! said...

Can someone tell me what are the model/make of artllery guns/mortars/RCL's that we currently use?..Thankx

Skywalker said...

A bomb explosion in fort ?
probably in railway station.

Defencewire said...

jiffy,
Please be careful of the language buddy.

jiffy said...

me? racist?? never! :P

point taken comrade defencewire. thanks for the heads up.

SnakeVI said...

Its a good article indeed. Ironic how the CFA became such an important topic to the rest of the world after it was abolished... Sometimes I wonder where the same international community was during the 7 years of blatent violations by both sides of the conflict.
In my opinion, the abolishen of the CFA was indeed long overdue. But I reject the arguement which implies that GOSL is the 'good' party and LTTE is the 'Bad'party in the CFA process. many comments seem to overlook the governments violations of the agreement. Even though they number a fraction of what the LTTE have done, we have to realise that GOSL is not a petty terrorist organisation and I'm insulted by the fact that some would measure its worth in comparisson to the tigers! surely we are less bad, but is less bad any good??? I understand that it would have been impossible not to have any infaractions on the part of the GOSL but I sincerely believe that government policy should be inline with their actions. otherwise we are as bad as the LTTE. Finally the CFA is abolished and government can be consistant with what they say and do (hopefully).. A legitimate military assault can be launched to save the nation from the threat of terrorism. I am glad i wont have to see government press releases claiming that they have had more success with 'humanitarian operations' in the north and south. that was quite shamefull in my opinion... cuz no where in the world are humanitarian operations launched with Russian heavy Tanks, Chinese artillary, isreally fighter bombers and crack special forces troops... (not to my kowledge anyway)
my point again is GOSL must hold ourselves to a much higher standard than the LTTE to hold credibility on a world stage. when someone points finger at us we shouldnt turn around and point it at the LTTE and say "look at them, thay are worse".... of course they are.... they are TERRORISTS!!!!

Moshe Dyan said...

A list of evils of the CFA. Not exhaustive.

CFA created lawlessness
1. CFA violated the constitution and many other laws that were put in place after extensive thought by mainly JRJ and his team to defend the country and its people from terrorists, et al. Checks and balances were also put in place to force adherence to lawfulness. This was completely destroyed by the CFA which never had any legal standing in SL. Major rifts were created between the 3 branches of the govt. The dispute in little lanka was converted to a conflict between two nations (one de jure and the other de facto). International conflicts are much worse than internal conflicts.
2. CFA recognized LTTE controlled areas as a separate de facto state. This stopped all law enforcement beyond govt. controlled areas as long as the CFA was to be adhered to. Police stations returned complainants of child soldiers in places like Batti where previously the police and army could exert law and order.
3. This international conflict became unsolvable as there was no legitimacy for one party and it started acting up irresponsibly. It is like North Korea where there was nothing the IC could do to handle it until it voluntarily (supported by carrots and sticks) gave up nuke tests. Without a CFA the IC would never had to worry about the wishes of the LTTE’s de facto state
4. All foreign VIPs visited the LTTE unless stopped by the govt (to the dismay of the IC). This reinforced the notion of a separate state further.
5. CFA created GOSL area, LTTE area and a no-man’s land (NL); this NL became the breeding ground of other terror groups. TMVP was one such product; the CFA multiplied the number of terror groups. Another Muslim group was also present when the govt. could not do anything to stop the serial killing of Muslims during CFA.
6. CFA made NGOs in N-E uncontrollable as many started to report to LTTE and not the GOSL. They brought war material, telecom equip. for tigers and the govt. was tied to the CFA that for the sake of ‘peace’ had to ignore such acts.
7. CFA took away all checkpoints that were a part of the City’s law enforcement (not only against terrorists) without any security assessment. A large number of bombs and sleepers crept to areas outside war zones. Their true strength is undeniably yet to be seen.
8. The CFA contained a section demanding the govt. to dismantle the LRRP. The elitist security force in the country was thus dismantled; national security went to dogs.
9. CFA allowed the LTTE to collect ransom along main highways and elsewhere from visitors and there was nothing the govt could do to stop that. Billions were collected and went into terror acts.
10. CFA imposed a ban on the govt. from carrying out development work through its agencies functioning in LTTE controlled areas (including the RDA, etc.). Under development was a root cause of this war and it further strengthened the LTTE position
11. Foreign donors had to give the TRO indirect funding as they recognized a de facto separate state. By the time they realized that TRO money went into buying 32,000 mortars, etc. etc. it was too late. TRO got money from 2002 to 2007 November from the US until its assets were frozen.
12. CFA became the criteria for foreign aid to SL. This was the most powerful tool the IC used to force SL to comply. Also the CFA caused a split in aids SL would get as the de facto state also got some.
13. CFA created an environment of impunity where any group could do anything especially in the no-man’s land (this was created by the CFA although not recognized by the CFA) and in each other’s territory. Of course acts in one’s own territory were out of the question.
14. The CFA created a major regional rift between Northerners and Easterners. A large number of Jaffna intellectuals (and others) were killed in the East and in Colombo. This problem is set to escalate in time to come making it impossible to find an amicable solution for N-E even when the war is over as infighting has already broken out among the two main tamil communities in the N-E with historical under-the -carpet grudges.
15. A toothless SLMM replaced the armed police force as the point of making grievances. Many deaths were not even recorded by SLMM (some brought coffins to SLMM) and police also redirected people to SLMM. Today it has become more difficult than in 2001 to bring Tamils to police stations to handle their grievances for which they pay a tax to the govt. The CFA created distance is taking a heavy toll. TMVP should not be allowed to exploit this.

CFA destroyed the Tamil democratic movement
16. CFA recognized the LTTE as the SOLE REPRESENTATIVE of the Tamils. All tamil democratic forces were made irrelevant. In finding a political solution, it is these Tamil democrats who would become vital. The IC was forced to recognize Tamil and LTTE as same.
17. Almost all moderate tamil legislators were killed during the CFA - UNP tamil candidates for Batti in 2004; Kadir, Joseph, Raviraj, Maheswaran, etc. This further enforced the LTTE as the SR and caused any future attempts for political solutions impossible.
18. CFA forced the UNP not to field Tamils for Jaffna, etc. going by the SR claim. This directly resulted in returning ultra extremist Tamil MPs to parliament. The vote base for Mahes, etc. were destroyed and replace by a TNA one.
19. Extremism crept into parliament first from the Tamil side (TNA took all UNP, SLFP, TULF and some EPDP seats). This was also reflected in the Sinhala and Muslim camps. Almost one third of today’s parliament comprise of extremists making it impossible to find political solutions.
20. The SR claim and its respect mainly from the UNP (a MoU was signed) helped tigers to block voters from voting for the UNP in 2005 which was seen as a moderate party then. The IC criticized this but had to accept this as a result of contracting with a terror group. The UNP, CWC, UPF, WPF, TNA, SLMC all had MoUs with the LTTE as the CFA recognized them as the SR and rulers of the de facto state.
21. Ask any LTTE supporter and he will tell you that LTTE and Tamil people are one and the same. But factually it is not so. The CFA legitimized this LTTE claim. Sections of the IC started to increasingly refer to the LTTE as Tamils and vice versa as they were the de facto rulers of the Tamil mono-ethnic de facto state recognized by the CFA.
22. Tamil democratic movements (TULF UK, etc.) abroad were the most harmed. They became just offices without any recognition both by the IC and the Tamil Diaspora.

CFA strengthened the LTTE militarily as never before
23. The govt was deterred from carrying out military operations by the CFA. Although the 2005 elect ‘hardline’ govt was an exception, both previous administrations strictly honored this as SLMM’s recommendations were like God’s say for donors. LTTE brought shiploads of weapons (only a few were destroyed). The present Navy commander was warned by Ranil not to engage the tigers at sea! Tigers assembled an air force thanks directly and solely for the CFA. LTTE’s mortar and arti capabilities increased by many fold.
24. The CFA paved the way for Manirasakulam, Muttur, etc. new LTTE camps
25. CFA allowed more than enough time to regroup and recruit its cadres. A mad rush for recruiting children was undertaken and there was nothing the govt. could do to maintain peace and goodwill at the same time until a hardliner took office. Also the LTTE bought enough time for many of its children to become adults as thee CFA held for almost 6 years; even a twelve year old could have turned 18 by then!!
26. LTTE engaged in direct arms import and negotiations with foreign arms suppliers. Part govt. owned arms producers like NORINCO - China had no hesitation in providing arms to representatives of a de facto state.
27. LTTE delegations were sent on foreign trips at public expense with no return. They visited arms suppliers in Norway, South Africa, Croatia, etc.
28. LTTE dismantled not only the Colombo based LRRP but also many other mainly tamil anti-LTTE militant groups.
29. Ships that did not fly the TE flag were plundered by the LTTE with impunity and stole their valuables including radars and there was nothing the GOSL could do.
30. CFA violations by the GOSL (mainly in offensive operations) were overly highlighted to the IC by the SLMM. Other HR violations by the GOSL were also overly emphasized thanks to SLMM’s first hand accounts.
31. SLAF bombings on LTTE areas were promptly visited by the SLMM and recorded. This heavily deterred the GOSL from carrying out some planned air strikes especially in important locations obviously located among civilian settlements. At times tigers sent SLMM officers to potential air attack locations to actively stop the SLAF.
32. Sencholai terror camp was converted to an orphanage by the SLMM. If not for the injured children who escaped and hospitalized, the IC would have believed this and SL would face a heavy war crime charge.
33. Army had to scale down their operations to give an impression of ‘retaliation’ or ‘neutralisation’ than an offensive operation as offensive operations stood out most noticeably in SLMM’s record to the account of GOSL. The IC placed heavy reliance on ‘independent’ SLMM as other journalists were bared from Vanni by both groups.
34. From 2002 to early 2004, the GOSL did not contract for major military purchases to sustain the CFA goodwill. It took a long time to rectify the situation in 2006. It also took a long waiting time to get firefinders, etc. Had there been a proper war plan from 2002, this would never have happened. The govt. by taking on the easy east first minimized this planning disaster.

Lost opportunities thanks to the CFA
35. All ceasefires must be bargained from a position of strength. In 2002 SL was in a position of strength vis-à-vis the LTTE. After the july 2001 attack, the LTTE didn’t launch any major attacks but the army was continuing small scale operations. LTTE leaders were dead scared of the LRRP and refused to comeout of their foxholes (refer. Wikipedia - LRRP). However, the political leadership was at its weakest partly due to Ranil (a weak leader) and partly due to infighting between the executive and the legislature. A war on terror had started and the LTTE was desperately seeking shelter. SL could have bargained adequately for a pole position. Whenever Israel goes to a ceasefire it actively CAPITALISE on military gains and the world order. There by each ceasefire with Palestine strengthens Israel’s position, not undermine it.
36. After the CFA, the clam that existed from July 2001 to Feb 2002 on the LTTE front shattered as tigers could do whatever they wanted. A CFA breakdown would have been a deadly blow to the UNP govt and it did EVERYTHING to keep it going by pleasing the LTTE in EVERY WAY imaginable.
37. By 2001 the LRRP was closing in on LTTE leaders; they successfully took the life of Shankar the TAF guy. Had that operation delayed by just 4 months he would be saved by the CFA and SL would have completely lost its air superiority to this innovative tiger. Russian Shmels were procured at great effort and were left to decay without use. These cannot be purchased in the open market and SL needs diplomatic efforts to get them again.
38. The war on terror provided SL an ideal opportunity to crush the tigers. But the CFA saved them. Indonesia, Philippines, Congo, India, Pakistan used the war on terror to crush terrorists in their countries. As usual SL lagged behind. Good thinking by the LTTE and no thinking by the GOSL.
39. The tsunami brought hope again. Aceh in Indonesia used the tsunami to disarms Aceh terrorists and many hoped the same will happen in SL. But there was the CFA and the govt. was committed to honour it. GOSL didn’t even move in to CFA’s de facto TE let alone disarm the LTTE or get them to talks.
40. The JVP that talk nonsense now were actually backing the CFA from 2004 May to March 2005. CFA violations by the GOSL became minimum during that time!! The extremist politics that resulted from the lawlessness brought about by the CFA strengthened the likes of JVP/JHU/TNA. They will ensure that no political solution will be passed in SL. Had there been no CFA, TNA would not be so strong, moderate Tamil MPs would come from N-E, JVP would have run out of ammunitions (at least part of it), JHU would never be there.

Continuation of the CFA
41. CFA made the internal conflict an international conflict. According to international war laws, no country can colonies another country’s captured area. However this does not apply to internal conflicts. (refer warcrimes Geneve and wikipedia - warcrimes). Today colonization of the east is a major agitation run by pro-LTTE groups abroad. If the CFA did not recognize a separate territory within SL, this claim could never be made. However, the GOSL is continuing with its ‘settlements’. It can continue regardless, but this creates a lot of confusion in IC. The IC’s apprehension of SL’s conflict has always been highly inadequate. This always helped the LTTE. Unless officially invalidated, the colonization of the East and the North become warcrimes in the eyes of an outsider who considers (going by the CFA) that there IS a de facto LTTE area with separate jurisdictions and civil administrations.
42. Misusing a “flag” of truce is a warcrime. “Flag” is not per se a flag only and can be any instrument by which a party signals to the other warring party it is not going to attack and seek reciprocal action. The CFA was a tool of truce that actually stopped the army from carrying out large scale operations. Now the attrition warfare stage is changing and large scale military operations are needed to get into deep Vanni. The govt. must officially annul the CFA to avoid all confusion that can go against it in the event of a large scale offensive. Some Serbian officers were charged for unleashing violence during ceasefires. Although this is not at all practical in SL as violence was part of the CFA from day one, large scale military offensives will certainly take the GOSL beyond the line in the sand. Arguably, they may be committing a warcrime if tools of a truce was held out while waging large scale open warfare.
43. The SLMM in Vanni is a big disadvantage to war games in Vanni. They are not only witnesses to a bloody war that is yet to unfold, but also ‘adjudicators’ of methods and tools used by the SLDFs. They cannot be ‘eliminated’ as the LTTE (and others!) eliminated aid workers, Catholic priests, etc. Hence only an official ending of the CFA can send them. LTTE understand this too well. It made two separate pleadings. One - continue the CFA and they will 100% adhere to it this time. Two - Norwegians to continue.
44. CFA continues to recognize a separate de facto state controlled by the LTTE. CFA also recognizes the fact that LTTE has a right to rule its territory just as GOSL has a right to rule its territory. The IC has placed faith in the CFA although it was illegal as per SL law. The SL territorial law became immaterial for the IC after the CFA. Therefore, attacking the heartland of LTTE controlled area will never be accepted by the IC as long as the CFA is in place and the government purports to adhere to it as it declared from time to time.
45. The LTTE was planning to declare a UDI on the 18th January 2008. The CFA officially ends on 16th January, narrowly escaping the LTTE attempt to continue from one platform to another. An UDI from a status of a de facto state as officially recognized by the GOSL is an easier jump than a leap by a political non-entity. As the GOSL knew the LTTE’s plan of a pre-planned UDI on 18 January, some late planning seems to have gone in annulling the CFA before hand.
46. Norway came to the CFA with its own agenda. It had Tamil voters back home heavily aligned to LTTE. It is like asking Ricky Ponting whether his team mate took the catch cleanly!! Therefore Norway always had a protectionist approach towards the LTTE. Cognizant of this fact, in 2006 LTTE sent off all other Scandinavian monitors but not Norway!!
47. Norway had other interests in SL like oil. Two Norwegian oil companies were charged by the US for providing material support for terrorists (not LTTE). But this justifies their overall alignment to the de facto rulers of where oil is. Australia followed a similar strategy in East Timor but it was like a SLMM with teeth where they mediated in ET in 2001. Now Australia companies are drilling oil in ET seas! But ET citizens are the poorest in the world.

Contrary to some predictors of diplomatic events, Sri Lanka did well in managing foreign relations in its favour. When Tamil Chelvam was killed no one thought the US will freeze TRO funds. How the IC especially the US works is different to popular belief. They seek a solution to conflicts and support any movement that gathers strength (unless it is against their interests of course). But SL must up its HR record.
FBI tries to reiterate the ruthlessness of tigers. Does this show the failure of our diplomats? I think so.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Pan Hinda,

""Yes why not wait and see?""

Exactly thats what I have been suggesting too:) .I am not saying the Govt cannot win, but if the bombastic predictions turns out like past ones, then?

""Assuming a victory for LTTE, a small window will emerge for some R&R until the military takes a break and does it again in a few more years time. This pattern will go on until LTTE is beaten""

You don't sound so sure anymore, do you :)? Anyway, the military does it again,and the LTTE does it again, and your country goes to the drain again? If your country had solved this issue with wisdom @independence, workers from surrounding countries would have been flocking to your country for jobs by now ,you know.

""Does the words 'hollow victory' ring a bell with you?""

It does, loud and clear.And again and again--for a country who needs to 'defeat'its own people, practice 'scorched earth policy'on its own, bomb and shell its own people and then exults in anticipation of such a ''victory''.
Hollow indeed.

Sam,
Thank you. We agree to disagree then.

Navindran said...

Defencewire I assumed that all racist comments will be removed. If you just warned Jiffy and did not remove his post that shows you are biased. All evil needs to succeed is for good people to do nothing.

jiffy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jiffy said...

navindran do you seriously believe comments like mine (above) can influence moderate tamils? can it give 'ideological justification' to a hardened ltte cadre? will it incite a sinhalese hardliner? comrade, rhetoric espoused on an internet forum cannot change basic ground 'realities' unless communal animosity is already woven into the fabric of sri lankan society. i can neither incite the hardened extremist nor change the peace loving citizen. and thanks to the moral purity of colourblind internet activists such as yourself history will anyway consign the likes of me to the dustbin (correct?) so have some faith! take heart!

:P

Defencewire said...

Navindran,
Jiffy got the first warning, just like 'the boss' and 'upul'. Jiffy corrected his stance. Others did not. So leave it at that.

By the way, your quote is as follows;
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. (Edmund Burke)"

I assure you, We WILL implement this policy across the board and will not be blinded by peoples' race to do what's right.

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