Friday, January 4, 2008

War Drums Beat and 'Final Battles' in the Horizon

A significant LTTE build-up is reported in Weli Oya sector in recent weeks. Recce parties have observed the construction of bunkers in the area and heavy traffic of LTTE vehicles. The defensive fortifications and beef-up comes in anticipation of the possible deployment of the Army's newly formed 59 Division. This division is currently undergoing intensive training in small batches.

It is likely that the LTTE is attempting to safeguard its hinterlands north of Weli Oya. The area beyond Weli Oya is Mullaithivu. If Mullaithivu is lost, Kilinochchi could be surrounded from three different fronts.

In another development, small units of SLA took control of another bunker-line comprising 5 bunkers in the Northern Mannar region as part of a series of continuous assaults in that area. Clusters of LTTE bunkers are targeted in each of these offensives. In many confrontations, inexperienced LTTE cadres take to their heels despite threats from senior cadres to shoot deserters.

Meanwhile the Sri Lanka government has officially withdrawn from the CFA. DefenceWire is happy to inform you that we were again the first site on the World Wide Web to announce this. The move comes in the wake of military estimates of a possible takeover of all LTTE areas by August this year. This was made public in a speech delivered by Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka last year. Other senior military planners in the SLA also confirmed this estimate.

The abrogation of the CFA is also an indication of the government's confidence in the military strategy. However, between now and August, much planning and dedication will be required from the Military, the people and the politicians in order to meet this new deadline.

36 comments:

Ram said...

This is going to be realy intresting in the next few weeks. Both sides are very confident that they will win the war, but its going to be the innocent civilians dying at the end. Let's hope that the Sri Lankans and Tamils come to a resolution soon. It's do or die. Best of luck to both of you!

Rutherfed said...

God bless SL forces...It's time to finish the LTTE once and forever...

We cannot pass this cancer to next generation...

Thanks

The Writer said...

this is it boys!
go sla go!
now no truce to cover ltte asses

Moshe Dyan said...

Seven months of war seems too long.

In the first few months as many LTTE cadres must be killed and LTTE weapons dumps must bombed from the air.

So it is going to be the Manel Aru front that will fire the first shot.

Fall of both Manar and Mulaitivu means LTTE can have no links with the rest of the world.

As regards Clinton, tigers are anyway screwed. If tigers target civilians in this war and manage to escape, Clintin will surely change her soft corner for them. On the other hand if they lose the battle, they are history.

Did anyone notice, although tigers boasted of the 'final war' during the cease fire time, now they do NOT talk of a final war. There is only one reason. They are sure they cannot win this and do not want this to be their final war.

Navindran said...

Its obivious that the war will not end. I guess MR needs to stay in power. Hence he needed to dismember the CFA. He is a weak leader because he wants to stay in power and will do anything to do so.

SLA on the other hand has much better leadership. However there are the Pro UNP and Pro SLFP elements and others factions in powerful positions. Defencenet and Defencewire are both good blogs who weed out the facts and present it to the people with internet acess.

If people wish to comment on the blog, whichever side you are, be civil. If you think your side will fair betterargure it out logically and without emotions attached.

Poltical solutions or other theories not militarily related can be disussed in many other forums. The war will not bring a poltical solutions. Its always been and always will be a political tool for both sides.

Navindran said...

The Tigers are not talking about the final war because they are already in the process of enacting it. As far as they wanted, they have achived a sucess by getting the CFA annuled by the government. They will probabily want to be banned also.

The CFA could have existed on paper till the LTTE was weakened considerabily before it was revoked. However MR wants to be in power and without the JVP/JHU and doing something populist, it will be impossible.

The military should actually take over the government and run the show. It will save Sri Lanka billions of rupees. Unfortunately in the long run and looking at Pakistan, this just leads to more instability.

Moshe Dyan said...

A pre-emptive strike on tiger build ups must be considered. There is no need to wait till 16 january to fire the first shot. Sri Lanka must follow Israel as in 1967.

The war will definetely end this time. Simply the LTTE do not have the numbers.

Numerically MR is the strongest leader after JRJ. His war budget was passed by 126 votes with 141 voting for it which is the highest after JRJ.

His direct and indirect support in parliament is 114+38=152 seats, the highest ever in SL. Political leadership is an essential part in a war. However, whether MR is good or bad is not the subject of this forum.

Navindran said...

This was LNP user Ariyalai_SB to Dewey. I believe its relevant to the debate here.


Who said LTTE has to exist for peace? What do you really want? Peace for everyone or peace for LTTE?


I said that you would not understand as to what I was on about! Whether you and I like it or not, the LTTE phenomenon would continue to exist. They can be militarily weakened at times, but they would always resurrect themselves, the history is judge of this. The point I have been making for a long period is that, LTTE can only be weakened, in a true sense, when they feel they are irrelevant. If GOSL engage them at war, the LTTE is very much relevant, but if a peace proposal is advanced and viably accommodated by the international community and the Tamils in general, the LTTE would feel the pinch. This would mean, no longer unitary sate, but a united Sri Lanka.


LTTE never compromised on anything. They did not even compromise on the agenda for peace talks. They did not want to discuss the final solution. They insisted on a ISGA. Nothing but ISGA.


Evidently, you only believe what you want to believe in rather blinkered manner. As I said many a times, GOSL needn?t worry about LTTE, and they can progress the envisaged solution unilaterally.

First of all, what happened to the APRC? Why it was asked to go in recess? What is stopping the Sinhala polity to obtain consensus? Please, do not take people like for idiots, the Sinhalese are not yet ready to consider a solution, and what they are doing is hoping that LTTE would be wiped out, and everyone would live happily ever after!

You need to take a deep breath and accept that, a visionary solution is required that needs to go beyond the present constitution with maximum power devolution to the provinces. The Sinhales must collectively reach consensus on the need to devolve power. Do the Sinhalese need LTTE to do this, a big no!


I agree with your comment on a 'proposal' which is lacking from the govt. As I see, MR has compromised his stance which changed from district level to provincial level. Yet, he is obliged to propose a comprehensive plan. Afterall, Velu wanted MR in power. :)


Only people like you would take MR for serious. He is a man who is still, rather foolishly, keeping Mervin Silva as a government minister even after the latest episode. He is a man who gives contradicting accounts of an event. He is a man who wants to be the modern day Dutagaimunu to champion the Sinhala Buddhists.

You still do not understand as to why VP wanted MR and not RW. Just stop for a minute and think, if RW had progressed a solution, LTTE would have been in limbo.

Just keep on supporting MR, and you mark my word, the UN would interfere at some point, and Sri Lanka would be like another Kosovo!

Moshe Dyan said...

If CFA was in place SL can never attack and take over Killinochchi which was the de facto capital of the Tamil Elam which was recognised by the CFA.

That would be a violation of a territorial right and the IC would be on our back. With the CFA SLA also could not have major operations. In fact there were no major operation during CFA time. Only small scale ops were conducted.

Another difference is the SLN respected LTTE sea movements; nothing happened unless confronted. Now it is not so. Any sighting of a LTTE craft would mean business.

CFA also allowed alot of items to be transported to Vanni including petrol and diesel. Now it is at the govt. discretion.

These are significant benefits of annuling the CFA.

It was the LTTE that drafted the CFA and got RW to sign it. In that the LTTE leader had specifically inserted a section to dismantle the LRRP.

Now the LRRP and DPU can go in full throttle.

TMVP extertise also must be obtained as they were actively involved in stopping the SLA last time. They surely know the inside story of the LTTE.

Navindran said...

LNP has some good point if you take the trouble to read the good comments to weed out the rubbish.

The Air Force Chief longer predicts any threats against Praba after they found a bomb next to his house. If you feel you are indistructible then you will go on challenging people. TamilChelvan ended up dead because of this.

If you believe the lankan economy and war can go hand in hand, my kudos to you. If Obama wins it will be better for the LTTE than Hillary. I do not beleive she will be as tolerant to the the LTTE as he will be.

Moshe Dyan said...

Why LNP stuff in defencewire?

Confused?

It is like confusing sri Lanka as tamil homeland whereas tamil nadu is the real tamil homeland.

some tamils are obviously confused.

If the LTTE gets so confused, that would be the end of them on the fisrt day.

Navindran said...

Moshe Dyan you are contradicting yourself.

Navindran said...

Moshe Dyan you are very immature and its reflected in your posting. Neither do you understand the defence situation well nor hide your racist feelings. The LNP blogger has brought out some points on how the LTTE can really be weakned. No rebellion works without peoples support period.

Moshe Dyan said...

So the tiger supporter is breaking down!!

No one is immature here nor racist.

The army will show who is mature and who is not pretty soon in jungle style!!

Moshe Dyan said...

Don't forget that the SLA is 100% men and LTTE is 80% women.

A flare up is possible.

After all these have happened in Serbia-Bosnia, etc. war!!

Moshe Dyan said...

From strategy page; this may well be relevant to SL as well.


A Pinpoint Success

January 3, 2008: Israel managed to kill 40 terrorists in Gaza in December, all from the air, and in the process not causing any civilian casualties. This is the end result of a five year trend. Back in 2003, one civilian was killed or wounded for each terrorist casualty. That has come down every year, until for this year, only three percent of the casualties from these missile attacks were civilians. This was a combination of better training for the helicopter and F-16 pilots, extra attention paid to the preparation of the missiles or smart bombs to be used for the attacks, and better intelligence on exactly where the terrorists are.



The principal weapon for these attacks has been the Hellfire II missiles, which weighs 106 pounds, carries a 20 pound warhead (containing only a few pounds of explosives) and has a range of 8,000 meters. The missile is most commonly used by the AH-64 helicopter gunship (which can carry up to sixteen Hellfires at once), while larger weapons are fired from F-16 fighters. Over the years, Hellfires intended for anti-terrorist work have been gone over very carefully by the maintenance personnel. That's because the slightest deviation by the missile can cause lots of civilian casualties. Usually, the Hellfire is being used against a car, truck or SUV carrying the terrorists. The bad guys know the Israelis go out of their way to avoid hurting civilians, so the terrorists try to stay among civilians as much as possible. In other words, the terrorists use civilians as human shields. But the Israelis know what is going on, and have improved their spy network in Gaza, and use of high flying UAVs, so they can track the terrorist vehicles and nail them during those few moments when they are away from civilians.

GoldenEagle said...

Moshe

Navindran makes some interesting points. I have read his posts for months and I can say that he maybe Tamil but he is not an LTTE supporter.

I do agree with him that in addition to a military solution, we also need a political solution. This is a must to win the hearts and minds of the Tamil civilians in those areas.

Thats why I always say that developing the East is a must.

GoldenEagle said...

If we developed(jobs, infrastructure, power etc) the East then we will win the hearts and minds of the Tamils living there. Cause they will be able to see how much better they have it under our rule than under the LTTE's rule.

This is what VP fears the most cause it will begin to erode his support base.

GoldenEagle said...

Navindran

I disagree with you on the fact that the UN will interfere in our conflict. They have to first take care of Sudan.

Besides our death toll in this conflict is about 80,000 there are other ongoing conflicts around the world that have far more horrendous casaulties rates.

Another often overlooked fact is that India actually does not want Tamil Eelam to be formed. Cause if that happened then Tamil Nadu will be looking to seperate.

The RAW created the LTTE to teach us a lesson because we were leaning too much towards the West in the 1970's, India did not like that.

Moshe Dyan said...

GE,

I do not agree for a race based political solution.

True we have to win hearts and minds of ALL PEOPLE not Tamils in particular. Everybody has same problems.

I agree N-E was neglected by ACTA, ITAK,TULF,and LTTE not to mention UNP and SLFP. But the point is having a content people there not necesarily making "tamils" happy.

N-E has alot of unused resources. These MUST be used by everyone especially the Sinhalese - only because they are greater in number.

A race based solution will only further seperate the races.

If the N-E gets developed after a racist solution it is worse. Then the tamil politicians will go and tell the people now you have foods, jobs, etc. why not Tamil elam.

GE please remember that Jaffna was only next to Colombo, Galle and kandy when seperatism rose its ugly head even before 1948.

Why? why? why?

Not becuase of any "discrimination" or other nonsense.

Because of ETHNIC ISOLATION.

This is a very critical topic and we must continue to seek the RIGHT solution never the GOOD solution. Hope you understand.

Srilankan said...

moshe i agree with you.the other problem is when solutions are based on races the concept of race can be exploited by anyone wishing to further their own selfish gains

Moshe Dyan said...

srilankan,

exactly.

who has the problem - Sri Lanka
what is the problem - terrorism, lack of national integration
where is the problem - everywhere in SL
why is the problem - lack of national unity
how to solve it - improve national unity

Look at Great Britain, a unitary state. It devolved power to scotland, wales and ireland in 1990 within a unitary state. (obviosuly along racial lines)
What happened?

Today Scotland is trying to break away; ireland is trying to break away and soon wales will follow.

Instead look at US (though a bad example as each federation joined to to form the US) - no ethnic based divisions and no attempts to break free.

Look at canada. Quebec (not only thr name) is a ethnic division. What is happening? it is trying to seperate from canada (peacefully).

Look at malaysia. it has a few (7 if i remember right?) provinces not based on race and no attempt to leave malaysia. Same with china, japan, germany, france.

Iraq on the other hand divided along ethnic lines in territory BUT the shiites and sunnis do NOT want seperation. Kurds want it; why?

Kurdistan as a seperate province was racially divided.

India is another iraq. MOST of its boundaries are race based and they want independance. Other states do NOT want any independance.

Australia is another good example of how non-racial units function happily (except for few water disputes amoung the states; no violence as no race is involved!).

When will our racist federalists learn?

Ever heard of the song ' this land belongs to you, this land belongs to me, this land belongs to all of us to live in harmony' ?

That should be the guiding principle of Sri Lanka.

the boss said...

"DefenceWire is happy to inform you that we were again the first site on the World Wide Web to announce this."

-LOL u trying to be funny? rofl

Sam Perera said...

scum boss the social cancer,

When there is some kind of sanity and order to something, you just want to spread you excrements all over. Is this how LTTE Terrorists are raised to act?

jiffy said...

who says this war is for peace??..on the contrary i and a lot of other sri lankans just want to see the ltte bleed. this is first a war of revenge. if peace is the outcome so be it...but first revenge.

jiffy said...

tamil pride needs to be blunted. may the malaysians and indians thank us for it!

The Writer said...

Everybody,

when gov in trouble unp jump around and take every chance criple
the gov but not with the CFA!? Why?

dont you think that the unp also think the same way gov thinks

"take kilinocchi"

Srilankan said...

Sam this is all our fault ..we are the people who indulge them...

Navindran said...

Jiffy, you staement also borders on racism when you say tamil pride might be blunted.First in India alot of problem is due to Congress corruption and leaders like indra ghandhi. The tamils there felt threatened and so they became anti hindi/anti north but not anti india. Even the DMK broke away from DK and won because it abandoned an indepedent tamilnadu concept.However in all the federal elections the tamils vote in parties allied with national parties. Congress has 10 out of the 40 seats tamil seats presently. Today both the DMK and ADMK do not hold as much sway as before. People have realised being anti hindi is of no use. Secondly economic opportunities have opened up independent of indian goverment control. The money now comes from the US for IT,callback services and engineering.

DMK realised after the last poll that they need to stir some dravidian issues. Hence the Malaysian, Sri lankan and Sethusumudram issues. However although the tamils may be sypathetic to the tamils in Sri lanka, they generally do not support the LTTE.

Secondly the still feel bitter over Rajiv Ghandhi. Lastly may it be tamils if they are not you direct kin and kith, the feeling is lesser. This further reinforces that Sri Lankan tamils and Indian tamils are different. Sri lankan tamil refugees are not treated very well in India.

Navindran said...

Next as far as Malaysian Indians are concerened, the estate Indians as they are known are made up of majority tamil and a good number of telegu (they speak tamil now). they are no different from the indentured labour brought to work in Kandy. their lifes are miserable.

Their leader Samy Velu like Thondaman is highly corrupt and they do not do anything to help the people in any real sense. The problems started when plantation land was used by the Malaysian goverment to build their new airport etc. This is because plantation land is least hassle free to accquire. The tamils there were kicked out without any respect and they also had no skills. hence their plight worsened. Alchoism,gangesterism are many of the problems that mushroomed.

The other indians including the sikhs,malaylees, Sri lankan tamils and sinhalese(both are considered indians generally in Malaysia) do not mix or care about their plight. Thats why they took to the streets. The poor people are not banking on tamil pride but are protesting out of desperation. One of the stikers arrested was a MR RAO. That is not a tamil but a telegu.

Hence do not jump to conclusions because the DMK wants to capatlise on the situation. The Malaysian Plantation workers are not asking for a seperate state but the same privliges afforded to other Malaysians. There are many other contributing factors which again this blog is not the place.

LKDOOD said...

Source: Human Rights Watch

Sri Lanka: Truce End Shows Need for UN Monitors

(New York, January 4, 2008) �
The imminent departure of Norwegian-led monitors from Sri Lanka highlights the need for a UN human rights monitoring mission, Human Rights Watch said today. The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission is leaving because of the Sri Lankan government's decision to end the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). "The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission was deeply flawed, but its monitors helped to minimize abuses against civilians," said Elaine Pearson, deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "Now the need for a UN monitoring mission is greater than ever."

The Sri Lankan government announced its withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement on January 2, 2008, hours after a bomb attack on an army bus in the capital, Colombo, killed one soldier and three civilians, and wounded 28 others, mostly civilians. The ceasefire had largely been ignored by both the government and the armed secessionist LTTE since major new fighting broke out in mid-2006.

The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission was created under the ceasefire agreement to monitor truce violations, including killings of civilians, by the government and the LTTE. Originally consisting of about 60 monitors from five Nordic countries, the mission was scaled down to 20 monitors from Norway and 10 from Iceland in 2005 after the European Union proscribed the LTTE, which then demanded that Nordic EU members leave the mission. But even at full strength, the mission never had the appropriate mandate or capacity to play a strong protection role. Both the government and the LTTE frequently ignored its recommendations, and its monitors were often denied access to areas where serious incidents had occurred (including, for instance, to Mutur in Trincomalee district, after 17 humanitarian workers were murdered in August 2006.) Nonetheless, individual monitors often showed initiative at the local level that provided some measure of protection for those at risk.

"Civilians caught up in the fighting will have a harder time finding safety once the monitors have withdrawn," said Pearson.

Human Rights Watch called on both the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE to immediately implement practical measures to protect civilians from continuing armed hostilities. The government and the LTTE should:

* Agree to the establishment of a United Nations human rights monitoring mission in Sri Lanka;
* Designate demilitarized zones as sanctuaries in conflict areas and pre-position humanitarian relief in known places of refuge;
* Improve humanitarian access to populations at risk, including by ending unnecessary restrictions on humanitarian agencies;
* Whenever possible, provide effective advance warning of military operations, both broadly � through loudspeakers, radio announcements or leaflets � and directly through messages to community leaders; and
* Appoint local civilian liaison officers who are known and accessible to local communities and have sufficient rank to ensure that community concerns are heeded.

HRW thinks they own Sri lanka
LOL !

i have a request :

please ignore some people here
they are crazy

TropicalStorm said...

SLG needs to establish a Human Rights watch group that directly answers to the Parliament, with Supreme Court oversight.

It must come with administrative authority to prosecute and enforce punishment on those found guilty of violations.

It must be comprised of Sri Lankan s from all political spectrums and with independent financial means. My personal choice to lead such a body would be Justice Weeramanthri.

As a nation, Sri Lanka must gain its self-respect first. That is the only way to stop outside interference effectively.

Moshe Dyan said...

Tamils everywhere are Tamils.

If Malaysia treats them in a particular way SL MUST treat them the same way.

Otherwise Malaysian Tamils will try to emulate SL Tamils causing trouble for Malaysia.

I Than Badawi for taking a bold action against Tamil trouble makers.

I encourage SL to followsuit.

In Canada Tamils know how to behave. Although there are 500,000 tamils they never ask for ANYTHING; English only or frech only is OK, no demand for universities, jobs, army, etc.

why?

Because if they do they jaffna kolam, they are dead meat.

SL must follow them.

Tamil Naadu is the only Tamil homeland, nothing else.

navindran, boss, upul and other seperatists, you have a choise.

You are either TAMIL NAADU or TAMIL MAADU.

Choose for yourselves!

Else we will choose it for you!

GoldenEagle said...

Moshe

"I do not agree for a race based political solution."

I never advocated a race based political solution.

Moshe Dyan said...

GE,

Sorry; i misread you. But even the solution the president and the APRC is talking about is a race based solution.

That will only legalise racism.

BTW Mr. Vinayagamoorti Muralitharan aka Colonel Karuna is coming back to mince the tigers.

Navindran said...

Moshe Dyan, you should realise what i am trying to explain in my post. If you cannot comprehend then you can ask for an explanation. Did I say sepetratism. Your ignorance helps the LTTE. Do you think people like you are really helping Sri lanka. You will not stand in the front neither will you do anything constructive.

About Us

We are a Non-Political Group of Defence Experts Sharing Our Knowledge For the Good Of Our Country. This is a Voluntary Effort. We Report to No-one But You.

Contact US

You can contact us by e-mail on defencewire@gmail.com and on defence_wire@yahoo.com.

Disclaimer

DefenceWire or its editors are not responsible for the opinions expressed by the contributors to this website.