Thursday, May 29, 2008

Tigers attack small Navy observation post

A large number of Sea Tigers who came in six boats launched an attack on a very small combined Navy-Army observation post in an island about 70 to 80 meters long off the coast of the Jaffna peninsula early this morning.

The Island of Chiruththeevu has a small team of men to observe Tiger boat movements and infiltration attempts into mainland Jaffna and Jaffna City. It is this small detachment that the Tigers have largely outnumbered and attempted to taken on.

Troops have managed to retain control of the island and the Tigers have subsequently withdrawn. Defence sources told us that a few sailors have gone missing. Actual damages to troops is unverified at this time. Search operations began a while ago after reinforcements arrived from mainland Jaffna.

It is customary for the Tigers to launch such small scale attacks for purposes of glorifying itself in the face of significant withdrawals in numerous fronts. This is the second such attack on observation posts within this month, the first being on Konthapiddi on Mannar island. Almost a year ago in May 2007, Tigers attacked a larger detachment on delft Island.

136 comments:

Moshe Dyan said...

DW,

thanks for the quick update. you are doing a great service in dispelling misinformation as defence.lk is VERY slow.

an attack on an observation post set up to detect infiltrators and terror movements is a MAJOR thing.

hopefully the observation post is functioning NOW. else it will be an ideal opportunity for tigers to creep into jaffna.

destabilising jaffna means alot to them as we all know. according to TN battles have raged for 45 minutes. even if TN is not true in this regard, SLN would have resisted for some time.

1. why no reinforcements AT THAT TIME?
2. apparently there has NOT been a confrontation betweem the reinforcements and the "large number of STs". this is even more disturbing.
3. hopefully no observation equipment has not been stolen/damaged??? may be i'm hoping against hope?
4. hopefully the observation post is functioning NOW.
5. an op. should be underway BY NOW to KILL any infiltrators. i'm sure blooody terrorists have crept to jaffna by now
6. the boat movement path should be determined and these bases should be bombed/shelled.

Moshe Dyan said...

"i'm sure blooody terrorists have crept to jaffna by now"

obviously not in large numbers.

above ground observation points "on board balloons" (if possible??) would be ideal to ensure safety of "isolated" SLDF positions around the clock.
sorry, i'm still obsessed with this balloon idea.

Moshe Dyan said...

SLA and SLN have ambushed repeated (at least two) ST movements according to defence.lk. good.

but tigers have shelled jaffna killing civilians. must be an attempt to destabilise security of jaffna.

Mi-24s should be deployed to avert ANY POSSIBILITY of further circuses by tigers in this region.

someone wrote here a few days back that terrorists were planning an offensive into jaffna. they can't do that but can destabilise this peaceful region.

after the VERY popular carnival in jaffna blooody terras may have decided to remind the people that they are still there.

thiru said...

One 50 caliber machine gun, one radar equipment, one RPD LMG, one AK LMG, one 60 mm mortar, one 40 mm Rocket Launcher, four T-56 type-2 assault rifles were seized by the Sea Tigers.

Malin said...

Thiru please stop posting crap. for one you have to prove you informarion is accurate. because when defence.lk says different story DN & DW told what they got to know even if it means that SLAF lost a battle (The Truth). But All i have seen you doing is just putting crap. Prove your news is trust worthy, if you can...

LKDOOD said...

Len says 15 LTTE & 10 Army dead ??

LKDOOD said...

look at this MAP of Jaffna

LINK

Guns said...

Hi DefenceWire
have they taken a "RADAR" with them?
& i don't believe that boats destroyed crap on defence.lk
think they managed to scape un harmed

londonistan said...

When they say 'Radar' they are stretching language. It's joke. Not the whole shabang folks.Tamilnet has updated with photos.

My thoughts are with the army/navy folk who defended the islet successfully against a much larger LTTE force.

On a point of note for the future, time to upgrade ddefences as well as getting a better radar installed.

san said...

everything relating to the attack PHOTOS published at http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=25807 But defence net or government websites didn't published any photos yet.

san said...

Here photos with the radar http://www.tamilnet.com/img/publish/2008/05/29_05_08_01.jpg that's true

Saman said...

Well, this radar seems to be useless. It could not detect incoming Tigers.
So why bother, let the Tigers enjoy the catch.

Saman said...

I suggest SLDF install hidden remote control bombs inside the hardware and let the Tigers take them on board. Then blow them off later.

londonistan said...

Saman,

No offence, mate. But that last idea is not a keeper.

Saman said...

"No offence, mate. But that last idea is not a keeper."

Well, i do not know.
But it appears that SLDF withdraw to inwards everytime when there is a attack by letting Tigres to capture the hardware. So why not..

londonistan said...

I know, mate. But there's a reason that virtually all bombmakers have at least missing fingers: no mater how good they are, however cutting-edge the tech, explosives are not 100% predictable.

san said...

saman,
our forces still fights a conventional war there are no such tactics
that's the main different between them and us.we didn't even prepared for there raid at navy point.but when we are going to attack they know everything in advance.during muhamale attack they prepared earlier because southern media gave huge publicity before the muhamale attack.another thing when kfirs, migs airborn from katunayake LTTE get ready to face it.recent MI 24 attacks in mannar fronts get big success because we placed mi -24 at different places where less LTTE intelligence operatives like hingurakgoda, anuradhapura, mannar

Ranil said...

one thing for sure is that reinforcements did take their own time to get to this place although the place seems to have been pretty close to Jafna city itself...
For them to collect solar panels and batteries and stuff and get them transported back etc should've taken some time...
and also the radar equipment would been on some form of mounts...
Any idea why it took so long for reinforcements??????
these sorta attacks are very difficult to stop but not being able to provide relief to such a post is a huge shocker...
Dont we have FAC patrolling those seas... at least a few IPC's with enough firepower could've made short work of these tiger boats..
Definitely tiger boats must've been smaller crafts and not their gunboats...

Saman said...

It looks like SLDF watched the situation for a while before sending reinforcements, probably they may have thought huge infiltration about to come to other areas of Jaffna.

Ranil said...

saman
that's not acceptable mate.
you don't leave your people behind to get whacked by the enemy..
We all know tigers needed something like this to please the die-ass-pora and now they have got it...
a single Mi24 or a few IPC's would've got the job done IMHO and this was a victory we shouldn't have given to these bastards at this juncture

Gringo said...

My observation is that in many peaceful countries, air space over their cities is patrolled 24/7 by a small reconnaissance plane or two, reporting slightest security risks / issue to ground command.

Having this LTTE terrorists in our hair all the time, I wonder why we cannot do that over Vanni / Jaffna.

Ranil said...

gringo
not enough aircrafts for starters :(

Long-Ranger said...

This is with regards to the comments on the previous defencewire briefing:

With regards to the current strategy, you all are missing one important point. The strategic gain of the Armed forces. It doesn't matter if the Tamil Tigers are holding its elites in reserve, but whether it is reserves or not one thing a new recruit and an elite require are a constant line of ammunition, supplies and logistics. Sans this they can't fight no matter how well trained they are.

As I am sure you all are aware how the current strategy is concentrating on securing coastal areas as the progress is made. The success of such a campaign was seen in the Eastern province. before THOPPIGALA/TRICONAMADU/KANDUKUDICHCHIARU campaign were begun the emphasis was to secure the coastal areas and clip the Tamil Tigers' sea wing seriously affecting its logistical capabilities. Using the Beirut trail it takes days or weeks for logistics to arrive, but the same logistics takes only a matter of hours via sea. How successful the sea route was shown when surrendered Tamil Tiger cadres revealed how sparsely they've been using this 'Beirut Trail'. In the East the same attrition campaign continued with the forces concentrating on the 4-6 sector which comprised of its KATHIRAVELI sea tiger base. There were many other Sea tiger bases and homicide boat launch pads surrounding SUDAIKUDA area in SAMPUR. As I am sure you all are aware these areas were taken under GOSL control before troops began concentrating bases located inland.

I hope this clears things up with regards to the current strategy. It not only dents the Tamil Tigers' much needed logistics, but it also ensures it loses its most vital wing - the Sea Tigers.

Moshe Dyan said...

long ranger,

respect your views mate.

cutting-off LTTE's supply routes is essential to victory. but the LTTE is not going to allow that.

agree with the benefits of capturing the east which has the longest coastline.

the present strategy has achieved very little in terms of blocking LTTE's access to the sea. at this rate SLA will take many years to cover the A32 and the trinco-nagarkovil stretch. as long as tigers have their cadres (whatever their designation is) they retain the fighting capability.

also if the LTTE has its "specials" or "elites" it can reverse SLA victories.

tigers value the mulaitivu sea area very much as it is the most secret although it is further to south indian supply routes. without an attack on mulaitivu by SLDFs these cannot be blocked.

onecountry said...

defencewire:

"IN SUPPORT OF ADVANCING INFANTRY TROOPS in MANNAR, MI 24 fighter craft of the Sri Lanka Air Force conducted an aerial raid on a terrorist gathering point, about 2 km north of ADAMPAN this morning around 5.45 a.m.."

Above is from SLA website. Per your post yesterday, SLA should be in control this area. Where is the disconnect?

deborak said...

DW,
I am strongly requesting you to have a look at the ltte mothpiece, tamilnet. Please!!!!!!

Is it possible for you to verify the authenticity of the tamilnet story. The defence.lk, has published there are 3 soldiers missing, and they (tn) has pulished the photos of the dead soldiers. It is true ltte will target small camps which are easily vulnerable, to re-claim the lost glory they were enjoying with the puppet UNP and IC goons, but do you actually believe that ltte did not over-run the camp??? I am bit skeptical, otherwise how did they manage to take the bodies of the dead soldiers. I am puzzeled????

I personally think that your information lacks the full occurence of the dram what really happened. I amy be wrong, if so please correct me. BTW what was the NAVY doing???????? There is something wrong in the system???

san said...

Sea Tigers Special Commander Col. Soosai addressing the Sea Tiger marines before the mission on Wednesday http://www.tamilnet.com/img/publish/2008/05/29_05_08_13.jpg picture

san said...

deborak,
there is some strange thing happening behind this war,we have wait and see what's really going on

OneSpirit said...

This attack seems to have all the hallmarks of a diversionary attack to keep SLN looking in one direction whilst arms and supplies were off-loaded elsewhere.

DW, can you please tell us without revealing too much, how successful SLDF have been at cutting off known MSR's?

With SLAF attacking only Command-Control-Communication targets without specific intelligence otherwise, it would make sense (as someone else pointed out either here or at DN) to take out vital bridges and other LTTE infrastructure targets along MSR's, if that has not already been done by LRRP. But I'm sure this data has already been analyzed by SLDF and the critical LTTE supply routes are known, monitored, and effectively controlled.

Ranil said...

well another thing that military planners should be in touch with is that how long can we sustain this war with a weakening economy...
Apart from the BS government and their stooges are dishing out...it's a fact that the economy is in tatters...
we need to expedite things in the war front like it or not... or else find a way to sort this out without going to battle which i think is not a viable option given the history...

san said...

Ranil,
"well another thing that military planners should be in touch with is that how long can we sustain this war with a weakening economy..."
Bandula gunawardena says SL facing economic crisis.Trade Minister Bandula Gunawardena said today that Sri Lanka is facing a severe economic crisis as is the case the world over and added that President Mahinda Rajapkse will announce next week, precautions the government will take to face the crisis. daily mirror news item
LINK::http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=16143

Ranil said...

San
well sadly the terrorist problem is a bigger issue so that should get priority but at the same time folks should be in touch with reality too...
things like Mihin air has wasted millions of rupees that could've and should've been used more productively...

what i hear is that if world oil prices go beyond a certain mark we won't have enough forex to afford fuel and government will have to ration supplies..

what's sad is that those who fund and support the tigers from other countries wont get hit... only all sri lankans living in SL will have to suffer... And that won't be based on ethnicity....
stupid fools don't realize what they are doing by supporting racist terrorist ba$tards

Gini Appu said...

This episode, over the last 24 hours, has demonstrated that nobody has learned anything in the 25 years that this war has plagued us. Unfortunately, not even the "learned" amongst us, learn the most important lessons. DW's response to the breaking news was as knee jerk as the Defence Minstry has ever been. The fact si that the LTTE did what they claimed to have doen, but I suspect they have learned that the SL Defence establishment and its cheering squad would deny, deny and counter-claim. So they held back the photos (its not like they had to wait for the film to be developed at Cargills) till the initial flurry of denials were rolled out and then they come out with the evidence that deflates morale and plays havoc with credibility. Guess who is winning the propaganda war?

The first casualty of war may be the truth... in Sri Lanka, the nation bleeds a second time, everytime!

And yet, we ask for more...
http://parippuplease.blogspot.com/

Gini Appu said...

San:

That photo of Commander Soosai shows that the LTTE's leadership is more at risk of dying from cholestrol & diabetes than anything the SLA/SLN/SLAF can throw at them. Perhaps Ranil's strategy of opening it up to let them develop bad habits and relax their discipline was more effective than we'd give it credit. Old Velu also looked positively unhealthy at the Balaraj funeral. Thats of course, on the assumption that it was him. Some say a precision airstike took him out a few months back. Or was it the Tsunami a few years back? Ahh.. too difficult. Lets just ship Velu a hamper full of condensed milk, cheese and Siva Obeysekera's kalu dodol.

No doubt, Velu will accept it and eat it all, despite his Australian heart surgeon's advice. And then he'd ask for more...
http://parippuplease.blogspot.com/

londonistan said...

Guys,

Soosai's photograph 'addressing the Sea Tiger marines before the mission on Wednesday' on Tamilnet is there for the same purpose they have posted an ultra close-up photograph of the captured 'radar' (no one is this stupid, right?) - to make the operation appear more successful than it was (i.e. mislead/give false pride/encouragement to LTTE supporters).

Long-ranger,

Agree with your analysis but taking the costal belts alone and holding them under pressure will not be an easy task. I'm understating it, i know.

Defencewire said...

What you see on the tamilnet is a picture of a radar antenna and NOT a radar system. These antennas are a part of a system of marine surface scan radars mounted on vessels and not land based radar. We are not quite sure from where the Tigers got this.

As mentioned in our first report, 3 men have gone missing and their pictures are shown. One is from the SLA and the other two are from SLN. Tigers have overrun the small post and made away with the weapons and the three bodies. There were at least 13 men on that island.

chamal said...

Defencewire,

So we have not lost a radar system or any other valuable equipment (apart from the weapons) in this incident? From what I can gather from your post, the rest of our people retreated from the attack, which was when the LTTE took hold of the bodies and weapons. After that they got back before reinforcements could arrive. Is this right? BTW, it must have been pretty quick if they got away before reinforcements arrived from just about 70-80m away.

dhanushka said...

For the people who question about SL forces not posting pictures, you to know what LTTE is trying to get some propaganda going, so they have a cameraman with them at all times so they have some pics. DO they ever post pictures of the lost battles ???? on the other hand SLA or SLN cant risk a life to be a cameraman..plus as a govt army i dont think it's a practice to put photos of dead scattered bodies though they are of the terrorists..

Ranil said...

dhanushka
actually sldf has been putting quite graphic images into public domain...

I'm waiting to see the recovery of that ltte boat defence.lk is talking about... apparently 3 were attacked by our fellas and one of them had sunk half way through or something in the shallow waters surrounding the island... SLN were making attempts to recover this...
just curios to see what sorta vessels took part in this event...
can't be muraj class or anything significant like that...or is it...
DW any updates on that...
defence.lk's story seems to be a different one...

Defencewire said...

chamal,

Yes correct. they have done their recce well. They can afford to as civilians mingling with civilian fishermen. The moment you declare this a HSZ, the NGOs and all the fishing sangam's start demonstrating blah blah blah.

The only high security zones in the vicinity are the Gnanams hotel HSZ in Jaffna Town and Ariyalai East HSZ to the southeast at Nallur, as far as I can remember. Mandathivu is also a HSZ. The other zones are miles away at Vellanai and Karainagar. These are all land-based. Cheerativu was never a HSZ. Maybe now it should be made one. If you look at K-point in Pooneryn, its just a hop skip and a jumpt to Cheerativu. This attack therefore is not a big deal for either side. It can be a diversion for something else.

Defencewire said...

It could have even been an arms ship off the Jaffna Islands unloading its cargo for all we know. Once an attack like this happens, the patrolling folds in from the seams as guys go into overdrive damage control. This is usually when the Tigers do their little gimmick. Navy should really play up to standards!

Priyanka said...

The 13 may not have been vigilant enough. There is enough fire power there to ward off this scale attack defending.

E.T. Bailey said...

Long Ranger,

I agree the most important strategic areas are coastal regions. I also concur that few things are more important to the LTTE than the Sea Tigers. However, the current strategy suffers from problems on land and by sea that have reversed the siege strategy's success from its high water mark towards the end of last year.

By Sea, the LTTE was facing a supply crisis with their major blockade runners sunk. VP even ordered an end to artillery duels because they were on the verge of having guns with nothing to shoot. That's the high point of the blockade there, when the Navy's actions actually cripple the LTTE's capabilities across the Wanni.

By land, however, instead of aggressively pressing the advantage, the Army continued minor skirmishes and inch wormed their way around Mannar. They didn't even try to push the Weli Oya Front, despite it being more strategically valuable. The Army gave the LTTE the gift of time and the Tigers found a way around the blockade. There's no reliable way to stop the small ships that now filter into the Wanni.

Artillery duels have resumed months ago and I see that as a testament to the end of the golden opportunity the Naval Blockade gave the Army. The slow and steady strategy now practically guarantees greater casualties than necessary and that's ignoring all the other factors I usually harp about.

Decisive action by the Army is needed to win this war and the current strategy doesn't have it. The objective to capture the coasts is spot on, but if the Army continues to crawl forward in Mannar and not even attempt to break through Weli Oya, more opportunities will be lost and the LTTE will benefit from the Army's inaction. It will only prolong the war and ensure more casualties.

E.T. Bailey said...

Long Ranger,

I agree the most important strategic areas are coastal regions. I also concur that few things are more important to the LTTE than the Sea Tigers. However, the current strategy suffers from problems on land and by sea that have reversed the siege strategy's success from its high water mark towards the end of last year.

By Sea, the LTTE was facing a supply crisis with their major blockade runners sunk. VP even ordered an end to artillery duels because they were on the verge of having guns with nothing to shoot. That's the high point of the blockade there, when the Navy's actions actually cripple the LTTE's capabilities across the Wanni.

By land, however, instead of aggressively pressing the advantage, the Army continued minor skirmishes and inch wormed their way around Mannar. They didn't even try to push the Weli Oya Front, despite it being more strategically valuable. The Army gave the LTTE the gift of time and the Tigers found a way around the blockade. There's no reliable way to stop the small ships that now filter into the Wanni.

Artillery duels have resumed months ago and I see that as a testament to the end of the golden opportunity the Naval Blockade gave the Army. The slow and steady strategy now practically guarantees greater casualties than necessary and that's ignoring all the other factors I usually harp about.

Decisive action by the Army is needed to win this war and the current strategy doesn't have it. The objective to capture the coasts is spot on, but if the Army continues to crawl forward in Mannar and not even attempt to break through Weli Oya, more opportunities will be lost and the LTTE will benefit from the Army's inaction. It will only prolong the war and ensure more casualties.

Sam Perera said...

defencewire,

I most certainly can see the possibility of smuggling weapons elsewhere during the diversion operation. I hope that Navy and Air Force keep eye on other areas when thi shappens.

nemesis said...

DW,

The Tamilnet site has pics of what they claim to have been captured. Interesting to note sevaral (8~9) gas masks with filters and drinking tubes.

Im glad that if what TN is saying is true, it is possible that our forces have taken the possibility of a CW/BW attack seriously, and have made an attempt to equip themself.

What do you make of it?

Strategic Thinking said...

with regards to the comments about having explosives in the hardware... a better option would be to have gps trackers which will help us identify ammo dumps... i do not believe ltte has gps blocking devices yet.

Long-Ranger said...

Moshe Dyan,

“Cutting-off LTTE's supply routes is essential to victory. but the LTTE is not going to allow that.”

Of course, the Tamil tigers aren’t going to allow the armed forces to do anything as expected by any known adversary.

“the present strategy has achieved very little in terms of blocking LTTE's access to the sea.”

The whole point of my earlier brief was to point out that given the current time and objectives SLA does not feel the need to specifically hunt down Tiger elites. What I highlighted from my previous brief was that once the coastal belts were secure the inland bases would crumble automatically despite them holding hoards of elites in reserve. One way or another they have to commit their reserves, and till that happens troops will venture ahead cautiously with a firm defence in mind. What’s fascinating with the current set up is there is NO fixed FDL present. It is quite fluid with many FOs and recce teams on the prowl deep within enemy territory. Once a mass movement of Tamil Tigers is detected main force units are on the ready to engage them. The success of the defence has been proven during at least 3 serious counter attack by non-other than Tiger elites were repulsed successfully. The only breach of the defence occurred during Brig. Manawadu’s tenure as 57 commander. Unlike previous Jayasikurui operations where the moving columns had the strenuous task of defending two over stretched flanks from East and West, in securing a coastal belt the defender will defend only one flank.

“tigers value the mulaitivu sea area very much as it is the most secret although it is further to south indian supply routes. without an attack on mulaitivu by SLDFs these cannot be blocked.”

This is misconception. Over 90% of smuggled weapons off Indian safehouses land on the West coast. Few reasons for this and the main among them is NOT the short distance as you have said. The main reason is this sector presents rich fishing grounds, hence using the swarming tactic the Tamil Tigers have been smuggling in small quantities of ammo and landing them along the Western coast. As you are already aware the last LTTE weapons ship was to be intercepted just off MULATIVU was in 2003 and since then all of the vessels were intercepted South East of Mulativu. The reason being heavy patrolling of Ocean assets belonging to Sri Lankan allies. The shallow waters off the Mannar basin also means this area is a level playing field for SLN and the Sea Tigers. Some areas are only 4-5 meters in depth, making only IPCs and arrows capable of patrolling this area. However the seatigers have adapted a lighter Muraj class FACs in these seas armed with 23mm canons. Unlike the 30mm armed Dvoras which constantly patrol the MULATIVU seas, these Muraj craft only have to deal with these IPC armed mainly with twin five zeroes. Unlike the highly manoeuvrable Dvoras, the hull design is not well suited for high speed manoeuvring either.

Long-Ranger said...

Mr Bailey,

Excellent pointers.

“By Sea, the LTTE was facing a supply crisis with their major blockade runners sunk.”

True, but the then intelligence assessment was that the Tamil Tigers WERE NOT in short of ammunition even if their supplies were affected. As I am sure you are aware during peace talk times the Sea Tigers are said to have unloaded at least 12 ship loads of ammunition. This is during a 4 year span till the hostilities began in 2006. And doing the math you can see 1-2 years of war (plus add in further supplies BEFORE the logistics vessels were intercepted) would not have completely spent the Tamil Tiger ammunition stocks. How true the intelligence assessment regarding Tamil Tiger reserves was highlighted during the November Muhamale offensive.

I fully agree with what you have laid out, however one must bear in mind that pushing the line from Mannar to Welioya Northwards and holding the area captured requires at least 2 EXTRA divisions. This is a MINIMUM. Currently 61 is about to be deployed and it is to specialise as a holding division. With the eastern chapter about to close, the initial plan was to push ahead via Mannar using the then battle hardened Task force 1 (precursor to 58) under Charlie and use the newly deployed 57 as a holding division. But events played out the way it is. The lack of a proper holding division was one of the main reasons for failing the Jayasikurui operation. With the captured vast swathes of land the SLA simply ran out of men to deploy to hold its ground. Less trained men from SLAF, SLN and police were deployed to do the job of a holding division. Little surprise when years worth of gains were lost in a matter of hours.

Renegade! said...

Sea Tigers raid SLN camp close to Jaffna city-TAMILNET


The NIC photo at the bottom is a tear-jerker..

Bhairav said...

War tricker !

7 more months to finish off the LTTE.

All the world are curiously waiting for this news.

So far, SLDF killed 5,000 LTTE cadres, and only few hundred left.

Renegade! said...

MUHAMALAI Sinhala Debacle No 3. 23rd April 2008-youtube video,sickening!!

Saduni said...

Good news from www.defence.lk

Troops capture LTTE main supply base "Munnagam Base" - Mullaittivu
Troops engaged in offensive operation in Wanni front have captured LTTE main supply and administration base known as "Munnagam Base" located in general area north of Janakapura this morning, May 29.

The said LTTE base which comprising well fortified building complex is used as the centralized location to distribute war materials for terror war fronts, sources said.

More information will follow

defenceAnalyst said...

Dear Contributors,

We are so glad to see the overall improvement in the depth of our readers' analysis of the issues discussed.

Thank you

DW team

Gringo said...

[The NIC photo at the bottom is a tear-jerker..]

What's that compared to the LTTE's bus bombings of women and kids to pieces, in front of a waiting cameraman?

All our troops are proud volunteers... and are ready to die for the country, if necessary.

They are the best... dead or alive... and it's our duty remember them in fitting ways.

Moshe Dyan said...

long ranger,

thanks for the reply. much appreciated.

"once the coastal belts were secure the inland bases would crumble automatically despite them holding hoards of elites in reserve"

YES. but that is only after coastal belts fall!! this is the difficult part as tigers have their 4Ms in tact!!
men
material
machines
methods

i know this is a chicken and egg situ. we have to break this cycle. you suggest concentrating PRIMARILY on securing the costal belt whereas i suggest concentration PRIMARILY on killing tigers PARTICULARLY its "special"/"elite" units.

if you apply the 4M theory which is essential for any enterprise/project, my theory is about substantially destroying their 4Ms in priority over capturing the coastal belt.

i recon it would be almost impossible to capture AND RETAIN the coastal belt while LTTE has its 4Ms in tact. also a thin stretch of SLA guarding the coastline will become the ideal target for the LTTE not to mention the VERY LARGE number of troop commitment.

also the LTTE's weakest point is its (lack of) numbers. we should exploit this to the max.

OK mannar to poonaryn cost is important for whatever reason. but how long will it take to capture the whole stretch especially when the LTTE has its fighting capability in tact?

if one attack like the yesterday's attack is launched that would provide the LTTE enough room, time and space to smuggle in a sizable shipment.

and the LTTE has supply bases in the north-east coast too.

"Good news from www.defence.lk
Troops capture LTTE main supply base "Munnagam Base" - Mullaittivu"

Moshe Dyan said...

DW,

yep. the quality has improved. thanks for the forum.

there is another related issue with this attack. a Mi-24 could have been VERY helpful not only in attacking escaping terrorists, but also in busting where their boats stopped. another thing it would have helped to detect a weapons ship or any other suspicious movement.

but as we have seen SLAF has NOT carried out any attacks (unless it is a TAF movement) even after it showed its night-strike capability from 8:30 pm to 6:15 am.

UNFORTUNATELY for the SLDFs this is the time tigers are hyperactive in the recent past. in the recent past there were many LTTE attacks during that time.

although there is NO evidence the president reacting positively to ananda singari's request not to carryout "night strikes", it is a fact that during 8:30 pm to 6:15 LTTE is safe from the SLAF.

Moshe Dyan said...

"8:30 pm to 6:15 LTTE is safe from the SLAF"

should be corrected as,
"8:30 pm to 6:15 am LTTE has been safe from the SLAF"

Gini Appu said...

i seriously doubt Rajapakse gives a flying frijole about Anandasangaree!

Why would he? No need for A'sangaree when the country keeps looking up at the Rajapakse Reich
and asks for more...
http://parippuplease.blogspot.com/

Bhairav said...

Iqbal Athas..you are next according to Govern coolies. The chances of getting the good death are low if you look at this link.



Another journalist paid his life in Jaffna.

Moshe Dyan said...

bloodyrav,

what about the EPDP activist who was killed with him?

(answered only because this is a defence related matter)

Ranil said...

to ltte supporters
the journalist who was hacked to death in jafna was the one who covered the recent jafna carnival...
Looking at the success of that event and the failure of ltte in all fronts and judging by the way the fella was taken out... it's quite easy to figure out who was behind that murder...
btw the journalist was killed along with his EPDP supporter buddy...

Ranil said...

MD
if the whole night raid thing is true... that must be the stupidest military decision we have made without thinking about it at all...
If ltte faggots know that they have this grace period to do whatever they'll make sure we'll pay for being so stupid... and mind you i think we deserve it....

Hope DW can confirm this?
Has SLAF ceased all night time raids due to a request from one politician????
we invested time and money for nigh time attack capability not to just boast about it... those were acquired to take out as many ltte faggots as possible and that's what they should be doing...period.

Moshe Dyan said...

ranil,

"Has SLAF ceased all night time raids due to a request from one politician????"

this cannot be answered mate. only the president would know that and the topguns.

my inference was based on FACTUAL observation. since that day i noticed that there has not been any air raids from roughly 8PM to 6AM (10 hours).

the request was made around the 18th of April 2008.

the 2 TAF incidents have to be discouted (if at all they involved SLAF attacks from 8pm to 6am)

cable said...

e.t. Bailey & Long Ranger,

Thanks for your comments really appreciate the posts by you guys. Hope you contribute in the future too!
This is the kind of analysis & insight non military ppl like us need.

If there are more ppl with military background in this blog please,please contribute

Bhairav said...

[what about the EPDP activist who was killed with him? ]

Whoever the killers were, should have so much hatred against this individual to kill in a cruel way.

Few bullets would have given them a quick death instead of using machete.

The stories I heard fro SL makes me sick - Two dozen TMVP cadres gang raped tamil NGO woman then hacked her to death sometime back in East. Number of Tamil girls were abducted for sex by these TMVP shows how rouge they are. Just imagine, how would you feel if your sisters were abducted and gang raped by these animals?

This world is full of animals.

cable said...

I have to agree with Ranil about the need to keep the economic situation in mind in overall context of the war planning

Therotically at least i belive that the present military strategy will overcome the tigers given enough time and without any other factors coming into play.

But that is only theory and not the real world. For instance the state of the economey will be a very,very big factor and also i dont think the Military will get the time they need to overcome the tigers using the present strategey
The touchiness of Sarath Fonseka & Gotabaya about criticism about the War Strategy/Effort is i think evidence of it.

So the coming months will be fascinating/sad/devastating in Sri lanka as i am sure there will be a lot of ppl killed which will surely include a lot of ordinary civilians (including mediapersons) and maybe infrastructre if there are security lapses

If this goverment had even a quarter of the capability it has to conduct the war to administer the economy i would have been more optimistic but that would be asking too much from Sri Lankan politicians

cable said...

bhairav,

"This world is full of animals"

That it is even humans are animals but we are supposed to have higher brain power to control our base animal insticts. The things that happen in war situations are the fences that are built in the mind due to education,culture & social conditioning break and ppl are reduced to the something a little above a caveman with only the survival instinct prevalent.

So what can we do about this? stop the war and pursue peace did that in 2001/2004 remeber? You will never get a Sinhalese leader who will give so much leeway to the LTTE as Ranil Wickramasinghe did but what did Prabahakaran do? he took the leeway given as a sign of weakness of the "Moda Sihalayas" and thought that at last he was strong enough to have his beloved eelam. where are we now? how many ppl have died? how much has this country lost?

Malin said...

Bhairav..

"TMVP cadre’s gang raped Tamil NGO woman then hacked her to death sometime back in East. Number of Tamil girls were abducted for sex by these TMVP shows how rouge they are"

How Funny..... TMVP was former LTTE, Just because they turned on LTTE now doesn’t take that fact that this is the way that they were created by your own people. THIS is who LTTE IS. That’s why we call you all as Terrorist. Whatever TMVP does it’s because they were created like animals, at least now they have chance to come and be civilized, don’t expect that to happen in one day. Anyway Police should do something about the civilian life in the east.. It’s hard but as a government GOSL have to protect its people

Ranil said...

cable
well said mate :)
ltte supporters are blinded to facts as they stand... and thanks to them tamils are slowly becoming extinct in this island...

Sam Perera said...

Repost:

DefenceWire,

Do we have any more details of the 40-ft deep bunker? We need to study how it was constructed, i.e. concrete, steel, shapes, sizes of structural elements, access hatches, air supplies, stairs, ladders etc. Perhaps, you should run it by KDU structural engineering staff to determine the maximum forces it can stand. Also we need to figure out how to get a thermobaric to work with this type of bunkers. We should improve our odds in getting Velu out by studying this bunker.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Good discussion hmm....

1.Nobody has really asked or answered why this base had gas masks?
Is the SLDF planning to undertake chemical warfare ,or preparing against one?

2.The 'small' observation post had quite an arsenal for its size--given the quantity of weapons captured (and those that must have been expended by SLN while fighting back).Thus,If it was really ' small' it may illustrate a measure against future LTTE siege/blockade scenario.
OTOH, why such a ' small' garrison is protecting such a valuable piece of equipment(radar)?

san said...

Captuer monagan base photos http://www.nationalsecurity.lk/fullnews.php?id=12809 great!

CASC said...

Very insightful post by Long Ranger about the need for supplies and logistics. This is the life blood of any army. For the type of conventional warfare that the LTTE is fighting, they will need to keep open a supply and logistics trail.

There are stories about the LTTE agents buying aluminum pots and pans in large quantities and smuggling these into their areas. One of the reasons that this may be happening is because the sea route from TN is becoming increasing difficult to use.

Defence Analyst's comments about the 61 Division being almost ready is very heartening. I imagine that with this division the army will have a significant reserve component once the major battles take place.

Ninja said...

e.t. Bailey

SLA is not consists of supermans. SLA need time more than LTTE does. LTTE started war after getting ready very well in a 5 year CFA period. SLA need to buy whepons, recruit, train and all these need time. So Sarath Fonseka is correct in his appraoch.

On the other hand sinking 10 LTTE ships doesn't mean thier ammo stock is nil. Rather they just should not waste it until they open a new supply chanel.

Futher, its wrong to say SLA is doing nothing just becuase they don't go mass movement or don't capture land. They are on a find and kill one by one operation on 24/7.

(mu kiyana vidihata film vala vage yudda karanda puluvanda?)

CASC said...

It is interesting to note that some of the Indian military analysts have now concluded that the LTTE will be finished in a few months.

The attached article is by Col. R. Hariharan. He served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.

Sri Lanka: An analysis of military operations

kaatikuddupaan said...

This could easily happen here, in fact there was a celebration in Wanni for the shooting down of a Mig jet. It was unclear who shot it down so Prabhakaran gave a watch as a prize to all the AA batteries click this to view article

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20080530.aspx

tangara said...

Defencewire,


In your opinion, how many soldiers stand as support soldiers for every fighting soldier in Jaffna?(Answer if possible)

In the pacific during the WW2, it was 8 soldiers for the US army.

I guess it is tight in Jaffna for the SLA.

It is very important to keep the SLA supplied for the next 6 months in the event LTTE attack Jaffna.

It is equally important ask people of Jaffna to cultivate the whatever land they have their..
GOSL should supply them with essentials to do that.

I am bit worried because LTTE will go North rather than South, with its well experienced Gurrilla force.

I would say they will defend Mulathivu while attacking Jaffna.

That is going to be there strategy for the last phase of this war.

Hope the SLA will not fall to LTTE traps.

Since the economy is not going too well, I think we should expect the worst and hope for the best.

tangara said...

kaatikuddupaan,

Very good point mate..You are a Gem..Keep them coming.


SLAF should check the escape hatch for all fighter aircrafts regularly..Murphy's law they call it..

I know one thing, Russian Engines and motors rarely fails. In sub zero tempratures like -40C degrees in Far North of the country, Russian built Cars start in no time.

Until early 90 , not a single Russian passenger liner(Aeroflot) crashed overseas. After the collapse of USSR , everything went hey wire.That was when things started to fall apart..Not just the jets they built..

Moshe Dyan said...

tangara,

no offence mate. but $15 million MiG29s and $3 million MiG27s are not so reliable.

actually russian jets are notorious for technical faults, comparatively.

but agree with you that they test weapons in subzero temp.s and that is a VERY tough test to pass.

TropicalStorm said...

The SLG needs to reinforce the diplomatic corps with more capable people who can hold their positions for longer than the usual terms they now serve.

The out-going Ambassador to the US, Bernard Gunatilleke did yeoman service, bringing a touch of class that made him very acceptable to the international community. It is known fact that Sri Lanka has a shortage of high quality diplomats who can stand eye to eye with the heavy weights in international power diplomacy without flinching. Folks like Mr.Goonatilleke need to be kept in reserve and employed to continue to serve sri Lanka's interests thru the connctions he's built up in the power bases overseas.

TropicalStorm said...

SLA also needs to deploy more deep penetration strike units, possibly ones that can be heli-dropped on mission specific operations deep within enemy territory.
What role, if any, does the Air Mobole brigade perform in this regard?

Moshe Dyan said...

does anyone know whether SL has signed the dublin agreement to ban cluster bombs?

SL is a main stockpiling nation of cluster bombs. if the SL govt. has agreed to destroy cluster bombs it is the dumbest in the world.

E.T. Bailey said...

Long Ranger,

Sorry to disappear for a while. At least this isn’t like Defencenet where 300 something posts per article make it impossible to keep up a halfway decent conversation.

The intelligence may not have suggested that the LTTE was facing supply shortages, but I would imagine that changed when the LTTE was banned from firing artillery for several months. That doesn’t mean they didn’t have any rounds to fire, as I agree that they were not reduced to throwing rocks at the SLA, only that supplies were constricted. Ordering artillery not to be fired would have been pointless if there were no rounds to fire anyway. It was a move by the LTTE to conserve a greatly reduced supply. I think that could have been taken advantage of and it wasn’t.

I wouldn’t use any action on the Jaffna Front to extrapolate the LTTE’s stores of ammunition. That front has preferential treatment by the LTTE. They will be the last fighters to run out of bullets, go hungry, or have wounds left untreated. It is their strongest position and the status of LTTE soldiers on that front does not translate to the status of the LTTE on the other three fronts, least of all Mannar Front.

I don’t think you understand me in what I propose for the South. I don’t want the entire line from one coast to the next to be pushed up. I can’t even begin to guess how many troops that might require and I am sure the SLA doesn’t have that kind of force available. I agree with you that the coasts are the real strategic positions. What I am proposing is moving up each coast in force. Instead of skirmishing for years in Mannar and achieving little more than body counts that I’ve already criticized multiple times, I’ve been urging the SLA to advance up each coast in force to help seal the LTTE in and force the LTTE army into a major battle. As you’ve said, they can’t survive in the island’s interior without supplies from abroad. Sealing the coast will do more to end this war than killing 10,000 draftees. We have two very critical targets to choose from, each of which the LTTE will fight for, hard. One is the West Coast, where supply ships are plentiful and the Sea Tigers can fight on close to even odds. The other is Mullativu on the East Coast. It’s a major population center and a coastal area. It’s also the Sea Tiger’s hometown and I dare say they won’t like the idea of Sri Lankan troops patrolling their streets.

I have no desire to grab territory deep in Sri Lanka’s interior. Not that I’d ignore a target of opportunity if one presented itself, but my focus is definitely on the two coasts.

If I were king, I’d attack on both coasts with more force than has been shown for a while now. One front would serve as a feint, while the other would advance with the bulk of available offensive forces and would take the strategic areas required to control the objectives I’ve just mentioned. The LTTE can either allow a major city or critical coastal supply route to fall into Sri Lankan hands, or they can fight a major battle that they will be unlikely to win. Either way the public will see significant progress, ensuring future support past 2008, and the LTTE will have been handed a major strategic setback, possibly two.

Jayasikurui was a very broad, very ambitious plan that sought to practically win the war by the campaign’s conclusion. My plan is not nearly so grand. Even if Fonseka reads my posts himself one night, decides I’m the most brilliant man alive, does everything I’ve said, and it all works like clockwork, the war still won’t be over. The LTTE will be weaker for it though. They’ll be a lot weaker than a year or two of attrition with cheap conscripts has made them for sure. It will set the stage for further victories as well. Just as importantly, the civilians will know without any shadow of a doubt that even though Fonseka couldn’t make good on his promise, the war is being won and the LTTE are going to lose big time.

I think this strategy is between the very conservative strategy used today and the over ambitious strategy of Operation Jayasikurui and will minimize the LTTE’s chances of successfully counterattacking. It also deals with a small enough land area that the SLA should be able to occupy captured territory without relying on Air Force or Naval personnel.

E.T. Bailey said...

Moshe,

Sri Lanka did not sign the cluster bomb ban. Nor did over 70 other countries.

su said...

Moshe & bailey,
"SL is a main stockpiling nation of cluster bombs. if the SL govt. has agreed to destroy cluster bombs it is the dumbest in the world."

but do we really use Cluster bombs in the war fronts?
coz if we do we could have get more of an advantage in the fronts like muhamalai... But I dont think SL is allowed to get their hands on theses bombs..(Correct me if I am wrong)

su said...

Hey E.T.bailey, Long ranger,
please Keep on posting & people like me who are not much of military personnal, will greatly benefit from these type of conversations...
:)

Moshe Dyan said...

thanks bailey.

only 111 has signed. but i couldn't get the list.

thiru said...

well, well, well, what do we have hear, it seems that Jihadis have started attacking targets in colombo to, I guess that eastern election did more benefit to the ltte than you modhayas think. First jihadi suicide bomber was responsible for the suicide bombo against the police bus earlier this month. Music to my ears, the ltte always said that the fourth eelam war would be a different type of war than ever seen before.

The source is from Sri lanka Guardian: http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2008/05/has-first-jihadi-suicide-bomber-done.html

E.T. Bailey said...

http://www.stopclustermunitions.org/the-solution/the-treaty/?id=84

That is a list of 120 countries that now ban cluster bombs. Sri Lanka is not among them.

I don't know when they were last used by the SLAF. I also don't know how Sri Lanka procured their current supply. What I do know is that it is a very low tech device that Sri Lanka should be able to produce herself.

Observer said...

Short while ago I heard a big sound and now dailymirror reports there has been a blast in Wella watta... Any info on this guys ?

Observer said...

Dailymirror:

Three injured in explosion
At least three people were injured following a minor explosion along the Galle road in Wellawatte a short while ago. Initial reports suggest the blast was caused by a hand grenade.

perein said...

DW-
According to below article another female pig got killed.
Do you have any details about the event please.

Observer said...

perein , Read todays rivira online defence article about this. Unfortunately I do not have the link

tangara said...

Moshe,
[
but $15 million MiG29s and $3 million MiG27s are not so reliable.]

I agree.However I was specific about one thing. Only engines. Even everything else failed the Russian engines won't.The Russian Electronics were not superior..Most of the Electronic components for their aircrafts came from former baltic republics of USSR. Now Russians are increasingly using Israeli and European avionics on their aircrafts. Things are much better.

spy878 said...

now you can make donation to our army through online ,click below link and do your part for the nation..
http://www.apiwenuwenapi.co.uk/Contributions.htm

Duminda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Duminda said...

My previous post was for test purpose,i am posting for the first time.

I donated some money thru a credit card to Api Venuven Api four days back.

Still I did not get any confirmation or thank you word from them.I dont know whether my payment has gone throug.

I think they should be more professional and at least send me a thank you email.

Moshe Dyan said...

"Now Russians are increasingly using Israeli, European avionics (and Indian electronics) on their aircrafts."

yes.

Moshe Dyan said...

perein,

this tigress is exactly the pulan devi type. she seemed to have been obsessed with terror rules.

she has given up her undergraduate studies to join the LTTE!

tigers are taking a heavy beating relative to its size and i'm not surprised by nade-sun's second begging in three months for negotiations. SLA must push harder by increasing the killing rate especially in the weli oya - mlaitivu front which is the most important front for the LTTE.

Shan said...

observer and perein

here's the link to the rivira article
http://www.rivira.lk/2008/06/01/ranabima.htm

Shan said...

the LTTE Peace secretariat site http://www.ltteps.org/ confirms

Shan said...

Shalom Moshe

selvi and Phoolan Devi are two different characters and have no comparison the courage and fearlessnes may only be the similarity. This is not the forum to discuss the two so I wouldn't go in to detail...

it's good ta have the Long Ranger and ET venturing here from there hallowed domains of their own blog.it's added a lot of depth to the discussions

tangara said...

Moshe,

[and indian electronics...]

I guess its lot better than Russian electronics.

Don't u agree.?

tangara said...

Besides, 3M and 15M , Mig 27-30 are 30 year old antiques with no proper maintenance history..
What you get what you pay...

chamal said...

"Mig 27-30 are 30 year old antiques with no proper maintenance history.."

But what else can we get? If newer, better equipment are too expensive or if they won't be sold to us, we have to go for these at least. We have to choose from what we can get.... and it's not like we can get Sukhois or F-18's right?

Moshe Dyan said...

tangara,

agree 100%.

Moshe Dyan said...

chamal,

yes.

but the little discussion was about the reliability factor of russian engines compared to jet engines of others.

we got a good deal with MiG27s.

i hear south korean made F-16s are sold at $10 M a piece. still beyond our reach!!

Moshe Dyan said...

peace be with you Shan.

LKDOOD said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
LKDOOD said...



Dw/guys

Did you guys see this story ?

"...According to the Terrorism Investigation Division (TID), the recent suicide bomber’s National Identity Card number was 820244769V, his name Ibrahim Levke Mubharak and address Hospital Road, Kinnia, Trincomalee....."


LINK

kaatikuddupaan said...

Yes in my opinion once The LTTE are finished off the Islamic Jihad group will start a similar civil war because its the duty of every muslim to not live under a non muslim government. they want to carve out a seperate state in easter province and are now making their heads shown.

Also in this case, the NIC card of the bomber was probably a fake one since muslims are currently not searched much at checkpoints.

Gringo said...

Folks...

Take a look at the evidence of LTTE fund-raising on Canadian soil, prepared and presented by none other than RCMP.

[http://www.nationalpost.com/multimedia/photos/gallery/index.html?id=496541]

I request all Sri Lankan patriots living overseas to forward this link to lawmakers in their countries, demanding them to start raiding LTTE terrorists numerous front organizations, raising funds using Tamil charities, small churches, Tamil computer training, Tamil immigration support and 1001 other Tamil organizations, as
front organizations.

Some of them may be skimming the government itself!:)

Gringo said...

[http://www.nationalpost
.com/multimedia/photos/
gallery/index.html?
id=496541]

perein said...

Shan / Observer-
Thanks for the URL / details

Mosche-
It's a shame what LTTE done to a bright girl like her. Could have got her to study (rather than got her to involved with terror / getting her to recruit kids as well as killing innocent civilians) and help the society.

However my main concern is, why we are suddenly not getting enough info about LTTE leadership movements, used to target these daily / weekly basis.
Does any one has any info why we went from booming time to no info at all?

Riyaz said...

anyone has more details of selvi, the LTTE woman wing commander. Sounds like a big fish..Reason for death.. unknown.....

Its too bad the LTTE is losing its leaders too often now. Without leaders it would be like a body without a head.

Riyaz said...

I personally feel everything has a shelf life. So does LTTE!! There were so many movements like them came and went. Remember PLO and other similar Organisations..

But We have to see beyond that.. nobody loves war, strife, destruction..If we all guys can build this country like one and all, forgetting the differences that would be the real victory.

tangara said...

Chamal,

Fully agree...

What we got is more than enough and they seems to be reliable enough for our purposes too..

What we were discussing was , it is better to check the systems regularly on these aircrafts because mishaps could happen whether it is Kfirs or Migs.

Moshe Dyan said...

perein,

i think now we are going after their second tier leaders.

but immediately following baluraj's death there has been a series of attacks on those who paid last respects to him. the two "DPU" attacks reported by the LTTE are just two of those.

i'm sure there would have been many more.

remember no one will report successful "DPU" attacks.

Riyaz said...

same feeling here moshe..

Probably many middle rankers...they will never appear in news. only the top rankers might appear.

Without leadership experience SLDF is punching a body blow to LTTE. Only an outside help or political bungling could undo this.

tangara said...

http://www.island.lk/2008/06/02/news2.html


This was one of the secret deals of UNF government.

No wonder President Chandrika kicked their backs.

Shan said...

Moshe
yep that seems to be right. Rivira in the same article that mentions Selvi's death (http://www.island.lk/2008/06/02/news2.html)
mentions of a tigress named Papathri supposedly a leader of the frontline infantry killed in welioya and Capt. (sic)Yalawan in kiri ibbanwela both low level .

tangara said...

I have a feeling this could be what LTTE is thinking.


LTTE will attack Jaffna using their sea tiger units on a massive scale.They will attack Mandithivu Naval Base with their units before coming ashore in Jaffna. It is even possible they will attack from the North i.e. from Kankesanthure harbour as well as Palali coast with a seabourne landing.

LTTE will not use their ground forces until the sea-tigers inflict heavy damages..
Further it is possible, they will use their limited air assets to inflict damages with suicide missions when the seatiger attacks are in progress.




What do you think guys?

tangara said...

No doubt , seatigers are upto something BIG.

Please be ready.

B#1 said...

LTTE Peace Secretariat Chief S. Pulithevan has been kept under house arrest by the LTTE Leadership..

Wow Wow Wow....

Whats happening to the Ealam dream...?

tangara said...

I have a feeling this could be what LTTE is thinking.


LTTE will attack Jaffna using their sea tiger units on a massive scale.They will attack Mandithivu Naval Base with their units before coming ashore in Jaffna. It is even possible they will attack from the North i.e. from Kankesanthure harbour as well as Palali coast with a seabourne landing.

LTTE will not use their ground forces until the sea-tigers inflict heavy damages..
Further it is possible, they will use their limited air assets to inflict damages with suicide missions when the seatiger attacks are in progress.




What do you think guys?

CASC said...

DW has highlighted the strengths of the Super Tucano, a Brazilian made COIN aircraft, in a previous post.

Blackwater, an American private security firm which claims to be the largest private security firm in the world, is buying the Super Tucano, supposedly for training purposes.

Blackwater buys Brazilian-made fighter plane

Moshe Dyan said...

tangara,

yes. there is SOME possibility. but as far as the SLAF has the air superiority, tigers will be reluctant to commit so many STs in a suicidal mission.

a small scale attack would not work in jaffna where 50k troops are stationed. but attacking strategic locations like ports, transport systems, etc would mean SLA strength would be weakened.

i think the attack last week was mainly to make jaffna residents miserable than to make any strategic gains.

but tigers know that attack is the best defence. they know the SLA will again try a push towards EPS. so the best way to pre-empt that would be to attack the northern garrisons.

as regards LTTE pulan devi's death.....
LTTE has done VERY well in ENDURANCE which is VERY important in a prolonged war. they seem to be determined not to credit the enemy. unfortunately some media guys in the south credit the LTTE and they cannot be stopped.

Ninja said...

DW

What about the AT report - Balraj dead by clamore??

jith said...

Hey where have the editors of Defencewire gone.. haven't seen an update on the site for a few days.

Puffy said...

There have been so many LTTE leaders being targeted lately that I have a hard time keeping track of them… ;-)

Btw, can someone please tell me whether any LTTE female leader by the name of ‘Dhora’ was killed recently by our boyz?
Or is ‘Dhora’ the nom-de-guerre of ‘Selvi’…?

Ranil said...

Dhora was killed along with here body guards... Selvi is a different person but her clock is also ticking...
free migration to eelam under full support of SLDF :)

Observer said...

Dhora was said to be an explosives expert and got killed when SLA jets destroyed the ammunition storage where she working at the moment. This female terrorist was not a top level one.

On the other hand Selvi was a prize catch. This female terrorist has been one of the most extremist. By reading the descriptions i guess this one has been involved in brainwashing suicide carders as well.

Regardless of the differences both these terrorists have safely landed in elam as of today I heard..

perein said...

Mosche-
Sorry about late reply from me.

As for the DPU attacks, why would not we publish the details (does not need to say carried out by DPL). Surely by reveling who got killed from terror side will bring lot more fear towards those small members.

Moshe Dyan said...

perein,

hope you found the answer in DN's new post.

one more thing. there is no difference, as far as LTTE small timers are concerned, whether the govt. declares it or not. they have no access to news.

if DPU or whoever is killing LTTE second tier leaders, that is enough terror for LTTE small timers to give up their suicidal "liberation struggle".

apparently SL has one of the best LRRP teams in contemporary times. this is something to celebrate.

in my view, killing LTTE leaders alone cannot achieve much. it must immediately follow annihilation of LTTE cadres. grooming new leaders, although not easy, is very much do-able given enough time.

Puffy said...

Ranil & Observer,
Thanks for the clarification guyz!
It's so nice to see the passenger list to Eelam state getting longer... ;-)

MosheD,
Agree with you 100% on the LRRP comment... those boyz are the BEST!
I hear they are under the direct command of our beloved Lt.Gen.
dunno how true though... ;-)

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