Military Intelligence has warned that the LTTE will soon make an all-out effort to launch a Ceaseless-Wave-type of operation in the Wanni. A small indication of its intent was witnessed this morning when Sea Tigers from Veduthalthivu attacked a combined Army-Navy post at Pallimunai in Mannar Island. Only one soldier was injured and another went missing in the attack. The point was manned by 6 men at the time.
The Tigers have been promising its supporters that it will allow the troops to come deeper into their areas and then drive them out swiftly like in Operation Jayasikurui. Operation Jayasikurui was challenged by six waves of LTTE attacks whereas only one such wave, though much limited in nature, was launched against the troops in Mannar sector in this ongoing unnamed operation.
There is undoubtedly some parallels between Operation Jauasikurui and the current operation, particularly in the time consumed in the battlefield. The troops engaged in the ongoing operation have already spent nearly a year, since July 2nd 2006 in the front lines. Jayasikurui was abandoned within 18 months of its start in May 1997. But this is where the commonalities usually end.
Although some fatigue would have settled in by now among the infantry, the Army seems to be maintaining the same momentum still. The Tigers todate, have not counter attacked as successfully as before in 1997. No significant reversals have been witnessed either.
The guerrillas maybe under some pressure to pull-out a breath-taker. The next 6-8 months will be crucial for them in demonstrating to their people that they are still capable of not only terrorism, but also fully conventional warfare.
Monday, May 5, 2008
A Tigers' promise
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A this junction, I believe the LTTE needs to counter attack only to satisfy their supporters. Things like the cost of living, fuel prices are helping them as Sri Lankan Armed forces are saleried while they are concripts and use much lesser fuel.
From all the propoganda it can be gathered that the LTTE is telling its supporters to be patient and the next attack will be comming. However until they are ready, I believe they will try an Anuradhapura type stunt.
As long as Sri Lankan armed forces rule the skies, they are unlikely to lauch any major offensive.
Indian analysts predict that a military stalemate is already settling in.
According to Indian planners, this was considered the most acceptable situation where they (India), backed by the West, could finally dictate the absolute outcome.
Any comments?
Fully agree that next 6-8 months are very crucial, not only for Tigers but SLDF as well.
I would call this a make or break period for both--something crucial to whole of this countrys future; It will prob determine if SL stays a Unitary state(with no chance of re-emergence of LTTE) vs Federal/Confederal/Two-nation( Not necessarily by arms, but more likely due to intervention by third parties).
I however think the Tigers may wait a little longer for the SLA to exhaust themselves and also to rebuild their own reserves before attempting something big? Like say, till about August-September : This will ensure that their operation will be helped by the weather(cloudy skies+choppy seas+boggy ground) as well as expose the August deadline as hollow?
military stalemate??
that is exactly what terrorists wait for to get into their offensive mode.
the attack on mannar is significant. that shows a possible arms shipment may be on the way.
however, a stalemate does not necessarily mean no big achievements for the SLDFs.
1. AF and LRRP can be used to wreck havoc on the LTTE.
2. attrition warfare can continue. in fact a stalemate offers more opportunities for attrition.
3. a good time to hunt down LTTE leaders
4. also a stalemate is ideal for surprise attacks by the SLA.
may be the biggest negative impact of a stalemate is the drop in public support for war.
prowar-antiwar cycles
1983-87 - 3.5 years - prowar
1987-90 - 3.5 "" - antiwar
1990-93 - 2.5 "" - prowar
1993-95 - 2.5 "" - antiwar
1995-2000 - 5 "" - prowar
2000-05 - 5 "" - antiwar
2005-?? - 2.5+ "" - prowar
20??-?? - ?? "" - antiwar
govt. should have analysed these cycles in end 2005 before embarking on a strategy. if they have already ridden the most part of the wave by now, there is not much left.
the max this wave can last is another 1 year when the country will be getting ready for a general election due in late 2009.
on the other hand, the "deadline" some talk about roughly falls in line with the cycle.
so my assessment is, if we can still stick to the "deadline" we are STILL OK.
MD,
interesting analysis re pro/anti-war cycles.However ,going by your analysis the public support should last another 2.5 years ,not 1.This is esp true as support for this war is at an alltime high, and this regime sure knows how to whip-up domestic war hysteria(but fails on International arena).
Elections need not hamper such support--in the past 'war for peace'parties were re-elected.
I dont think a stalemate has been reached--the SLA still seem to be getting the upperhand overall--but the Tigers appear to be determining the pace of engagement even as they withdraw.
It would help greatly if our army can get their hands on a few 300mm MLRS units. This is the one weapon that can obliterate entire LTTE formations in mere seconds. Steel rain will crush cease-less waves on any battlefield.
Even if we have reached a stalemate, like Moshe said attrition will continue to eat into the LTTE's manpower whether they be hardcore cadres or underage rookie cannon fodder.
STD,
"2005-?? - 2.5+ "" - prowar"
i meant 2005-2008 has already 2.5 years.
as for the next one year, i just got the average of the past (3.5+2.5+5)/3 -2.5 =1.1
interstingly no general election was held in a pro-war climate so far!!
1982 ref. - no war
1989-antiwar
1994-antiwar
2000 October -cusp of prowar / antiwar
2001-antiwar
2004-antiwar
therefore i doubt the 2009 GE will be held in a pro-war climate.
but this is past info. and past is no guide to the future.
Jayasikuru was not just a military operation, it was a political operation too. CBK/ Rathwaththe had to satify their vote base. Stratergy was a boomarang. Finally it was tamil di-ass-pora got thrilled. When 100 of SLA get KIA this tamil di-ass-pora (even in these two blogs) get excited like when Thendulkar hit sixes. Whatever their mentalality and education level its their money keep running the LTTE. If MR use this weakness properly (ignoring satisfying his vote basae) SLA can capitalize on that.
AAB/ KAB type attack or sucide bombs are the best for LTTE. SLA just need to avoid mass movement and keep continuing group based attacks for next 12 months. Then ceaseless waves will be useless and when mass movement begins there won't be enough tigers for a ceaseless wave.
Its good Jayasikurui has become a topic of discussion since learning lessons is not one of our strong points. Jayasikurui failed for more than one reason. The leadership, morale, planning, tactics were all wrong.
One other key event was the stealing of a ship (Iris Mona) containing thousands of 80mm mortar rounds by LTTE. Soon after the ship was hijacked, 80mm mortar started raining down on troops. They overran Kilinochi capturing a few more artillery pieces. The troops on Jayasikuri also started to face rains of mortar rounds. The mortar rains worked for them purely because hundreds of troops were marching forward in one bunch.
Well said Ninja! well said!
I too think that LTTE will do something like ceaseless waves again!
But, if militery opearations can be finalized by taking historical events into consideration, no war should'd been started after fighting once.
These LTTE Fans try to plant fear amoung people since they know that it's the ultimate thing that's left for them to do. "Propaganda"!
DefenceWire,
At last! may god be praised!..A conventional attack!! i hope our planes are loaded and ready..The idea of this attack if i read it right is for these buffoons to capture the MBRL's,..only a guess and not territory!!
"The Tigers todate, have not counter attacked as successfully as before in 1997. No significant reversals have been witnessed either."
defencewire,
are u sufferinf from amnesia or short-term memory loss, by any chance?.have u forgotten the twin debacles suffered by the SLA in muhamlai-2006 and just last week in the nagarkovil FDL's,where over 150+ soldiers never saw the light of day??..and more than 350 injured,most of them serious cases?? atleast 4 armored vehicles put out of action,excluding a T-55??..come on, defwire, seems to me u r the new cheerleader for Rajapakse and his cronies!!!
Onna onna politic panuwek kokkaka amunala demma... oka kewoth wire ekath net ekak wei..
During Eelam War III, there were three major LTTE offensives.
Jul 1996 UC1 Mulaiteevu
Sep 1998 UC2: Kilinochchi
Sep 1999 UC3: Vanni
UC1 was a must do for the LTTE as it had lost its main bastion, Jaffna, during Dec 1995.
Does the LTTE need a UC1 now? Answer is no. All main bases in Vanni (Irainamadu, Mulaiteevu, EPS) are still under LTTE control.
UC2 was a critical part of the defence against JS1. With the SLA at Kilinochchi and near Mankulam, the distance JS1 had to advance from either side of the A9 was less than 20km. Being outsted from Kilinochchi was a step back for JS1.
Does the LTTE need a UC2 now? Answer is no. SLA is not even at either end of the A32. More than 50km of A32 is still under LTTE control. SLA wants to get to Adampan so that it can get on the road that leads to A32 in Vidathaltheevu.
UC3 was launched when SLA was at breaking-point. It was more than four years after SLA launched its offensives, and after SLA was stretched, both physically and mentally.
Does the LTTE need a UC3 now? Answer is no. SLA is not stretched enough. SLA needs to be allowed far further into Vanni, while simultaneously stretching its mental and physical capacity. UC3 can only be launched when SLA has reached breakingpoint.
DW/others
so in these 'Ceaseless-Waves' 1000's of LTTE charged ahead in to SLA areas
did SLA do any 'Ceaseless-Waves' ?
i don't think LTTE will try another Large scale operation like "Unceasing Wave" after what happed to them in 2006 when they tried to invade JAFFNA
it was the CS4
many got roasted after facing MBRL fire
good luck for them if they trying it again
sorry it was UC4
We should not take the hurried path of Jayasikuru at all. Still, the elections in east needs to be completed (hopefully Pillaiyan will be the CM). Without, taking care of the east, it is more risky to go forward in the north. How the east will function as will set the tone to how non-LTTE civilians will react to SLA in the north. We need to go slow and steady for several reasons; 1) Not to deplete our weapon stockpiles, 2) Not to over-strain our financial resources, 3) More time for SLAF, SF, and LRRP to take down significant targets. Therefore, it is wiser to expect a steady and slow progress compared to Jayasikuru. I believe that this will go on at a slower pace for another three years.
DW:
How did LTTE attach SLA/SLN post in mannar town? Was that an amphibious attack? I thought All the areas around mannar are already in SLA control.
guns,
Dont be too sure..complacency will lead to our death meaning ALL peace loving peoples of slanka.
LTTE's Balraj has apparently taken over control of Weli Oya front. Changing patterns of artillery fire is possibly connected to his appointment. This was the guy who was treated in a Colombo hospital over a heart condition. The wanker now deliberately targets Sinhala villages with his artillery.
"This was the guy who was treated in a Colombo hospital over a heart condition."
I thought that was 'daya master' the translator or something?
renegade,
Muhamale and Nagarkovil is NOT WANNI! That is JAFFNA!
panhinda,
Balraj and Daya Master are two different characters. Balraj is the head of LTTE military wing (more like the deputy, considering the head is Prabha). He was not the one who came to Colombo for treatment. That was the latter, Daya Master.
sorry for being ignorant like this...
But what kind of terrain is Weli Oya?
Defencewire, any idea what these photos on Tamil net are showing?
explosion 1
explosion 2
thanks.
Looks like an arti-pad had exploded.
Nothing to do with fuel as the smoke is neither black nor thick. I doubt that LTTE was able to carry out a precise-hostile strike.
So, most likely to be over-heating.
In most circumstances these guys do not follow the manual.
They keep a few dozen shells close by because they can not be bothered to carry them from the recommended distance each time. They also get carried away in the dual and keep firing despite overheating.
This sort of stuff was fairly common with the SLA.
thambala,
its thick jungle from Nayaru north.
jack,
White smoke. From a single source. Not an explosive dump or military vehicle burning as the smoke would be black. It looks like a HEAT shell explosion on ground impact after being fired from a howitzer.
The photos are of "a HEAT shell explosion"?
Lol!
In Tamil, we have a saying about trying to hide a pumpkin in a plate of rice.
peter,
Your defence expertise and knowledge of politics are exceptional. With your wisdom and knowledge, we surely can win this war. I beg you to join the MOD at this point. I offer you 10 times your CD$ salary if you join us. Man! you are somebody.
DefenceWire,
Please check the following link at ITN news.
An LTTE meeting place is raided
It is one thing to put a Mig-29. However, it is totally out of place to put a F-117 Stealth Bomber for the photo. I hope that ITN would stop this kind of jokes in the future.
Sam Perera,
What does it say? After Muhamalai III even ITN started to think the GoSL news is a joke!
dw,
isn't muhamalai part of killinochi district and hence part of vanni?
although it happens to be on the jaffna peninsula, it's not in jaffna..
Blogger Sam Perera said...
DefenceWire,
Please check the following link at ITN news.
An LTTE meeting place is raided
It is one thing to put a Mig-29. However, it is totally out of place to put a F-117 Stealth Bomber for the photo. I hope that ITN would stop this kind of jokes in the future.
---
ITN is a government channel
so they promote the government to the extreme
i will be not surprised if they use a picture of a super carrier and says its SL Navy
Government channels should be more responsible
government channels are supported by the tax payers
I don't think it is meaningful to compare the CBK regime's military strategy to that of the current govt. The CBK Govt's military strategy was basically driven by political considerations and implemented by her bungling uncle. However, it is reasonable to expect the LTTE to react in a similar manner when things are not going their way. All of the previous governments of Sri Lanka never put the country on a war footing to rid the country of the LTTE. (eg In WW2 the British closed the Colombo schools and had food and petrol rationing). The premise was that the war should not derail the economy in anyway. This led to a situation where the SLA and the other services were asked to basically maintain the status quo. There were no big investments in military expansion or acquisition of equipment. While this Govt has not put the country on a complete war footing they have taken a big economic gamble by allocating more resources, substantially more than what is considered to be economically sustainable. The Govt's goal is to completely defeat the LTTE. The strategy assumes that this will happen within the next two to three years. This strategy cannot be sustained economically for several years. As the olds saying goes "it is better to have some short-term pain rather than experience long-term hardship."
"It is one thing to put a Mig-29. However, it is totally out of place to put a F-117 Stealth Bomber for the photo."
Worst part is that helicopter gunships were used, not even jets, so at least it should have been an Apache :)
guys,
i get this nasty feeling that things are slowly slipping from our grip UNLESS an immediate strategic shift is made.
the rate of attrition warfare is pathetically low; this must be ramped up.
tigers as usual exploit this relative "lull" to attack the SLA.
tigers weakest point is their (lack of) numbers. it is high time we hit them where they are weak.
today's attrition war is aimed at weakening the tigers so that they can be attacked with lesser trouble. But i recon attrition to be promoted as THE WAY OF THIS WAR.
that will ensure safer relative "lulls" for the SLDFs.
clearly tigers are now concentrating their atatcks at nighttime. after ananda sangari's appeal not to carryout night air raids, night SLAF raids have ACTUALLY stopped!! what a DOOR of opportunity for the tigers?
this is regrettable.
Moshe, Sangree has no power in Sri Lanka. There are other reasons why they might not be flying at night.
Its good that the Pro LTTE guys are putting forward good points too. However it would be appreciated if both sides do not use demeaning text. Use the facts to discredit your opponents.
navindran,
sangari has A LOT of influence on the president who in turn is the commander-in-chief!!
i agree that as a politician he has VERY LITTLE OR NO following though.
Cyclone in Mynmar has wiped out Lanka's rice source.
http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailVie
I too agree with Moshe on that SLDF is loosening the grip it had on the LTTE, making them free to attack the army.
A constant shift in strategies is needed to keep the LTTE cadres on their toes. SLAF can do a lot in this regard. But we see very little SLAF activity, especially night raids, when LTTE is most active.
I am also worried that SLN is sitting on its hunches while LTTE has brought in a lot of new supplies. We hardly see any interceptions by the SLN now. War of attrition is not going to work if LTTE keeps getting all the stuff they need without a problem.
I am afraid I must say this, Sri Lankans have a great tendency to become complacent. We have paid time and time again for this (even in Cricket); but we never learn a lesson.
SF and LRRP can't carry the full weight of fighting the war. Other units also should be used strategically to perturb the LTTE.
What has happened to that catchy phrase "decapitating attacks"? I don't even see that term being used by anyone anymore. Are we just planning on killing a few foot soldiers and expecting that LTTE would implode?
I asked a couple of questions using several flir images. I never got any answers. I asked those not really to get an answer from DW team, but for someone in the SLAF to see.
I must ask another question just for this purpose. Have we at least tried half burying an arti gun and seeing if we can spot it using a UAV with flir capabilities??
What about pattern recognition systems to detect the arti guns and militarily significant objects? There is really no point in getting all the hardware and not putting them to proper use (there is no use of having an Alliya without the henduwa, to put it in plain Sinhala). Damn.
rover,
this is not the IDEAL forum to put forward our suggestions and expect them to be AT LEAST considered by some sections of the MoD.
but some seniors at the MoD MUST be reading these 2 blogs because they are the ONLY places where intelligent and informed defence analysis is possible with a LARGE section of SLs scattered worldwide.
if they are not at least doing so, god bless them.
however, suggested R&D work need to be chanelled to the right place. i have tried this many times but failed; Andare also has done so without any success. repeated e-mails to the defence secretary (and other MoD, MCNS emails) begging him to direct to responsible individuals have gone unanswered.
i tried approaching through a known military man. he was trying so hard ONLY TO GET HOLD OF SOME INFO. AS TO HOW TO PROCEED, and couldn't. He got frustrated and gave up!!!!
i asked my other contacts in SLDFs to no success. they don't know.
DW & DN suggested Mechanical Engineering div. but i couldn't reach them via phone.
if anyone knows any WORKABLE means of getting in touch with a MoD contact for AT LEAST to consider our little suggestions, PLEASE publish it here or suggest any other means of establishing contact.
Moshe Dyan, we are all arm chair critics. The commanders and planners have many more issues to grapple with then we do. Image a schoolboy running to the President and telling him what to do. He will just shoo him away. Likewise we are to military planners like school boys mucking around. Eg a schoolboy thinks the pencils should be given free. However the president needs to look if we need to subsidy all school equipment and what are the consequences. Furthermore he needs to factor the cost etc etc.
We can use this blog to better understand the military situation better in Sri Lanka. A hope will be that somebody might read this and get some ideas to do things better. If the Pro Ltters depened/trusted on their sources alone or the Pro Goslers depended/trusted on their sources alone, the defence blogs will never be so lively.
Moshe,
The Defense Secretary is a known IT buff. I think he used to work as a Unix administrator. He should be looking at blogs that give him some ideas.
Another suggestion is to leave a small advertisement on DailyNews for example, so that everyone knows about the blog and they can get involved.
The soldiers in all major installations around the country including Palalay have access to the Internet. Perhaps someone can make the blog popular among these soldiers. Their input on ideas generated here will be valuable in terms of whether its practical or not.
My idea is, we should not assume things whether it’s going to be Jaffna, Trinco etc we need to have veterans on war, counter terrorism and intelligence, I mean highly technical and skilled people,
I was screaming all the time about this, we have to have concrete logs about their movements, situation and comments and assessments over those by our skilled people (should be a panel of)
It’s better always share information among our intelligence groups and must form a counter terrorism unit directly under the Defiance Minister or Secretary
Then only we can decide and prepare gears and techniques for the future, otherwise people are guessing that this would be the next place they attacking, finally responsibly go for someone and he get punished etc, this process is risking both soldiers lives and discourage high rankers , that’s what happening now
It’s not their error but the system, basically I think “WE NEED A GOOD SYSTEM”
Most of you guys seem to think of night-time raids as a walk to the park.
Pilots have to undergo special training. Just having the jets capable of flying at night is not enough.
I think the one incident where SLAF did raid at night was using a foreign pilot to test new jet; sort of test drive.
It many be many moons before SLAF pilots are trained and sufficient number of jets are brought into to maintain high frequency night raids.
The successes or failures of a war of attrition can only be objectively analysed if you have true indications of enemy strengths and losses.
Estimates of 3000 Tigers in Jan, and 5000 Tigers in Feb (70% jump) and the killing of 3400 Tigers since Jan (100+% or 70%), may make good propaganda amongst the masses, but it is no indication of any real success in a war of attrition.
Sri Lanka may be moved down from B+ by S&P and Fitch. Inflation for last month was 30%.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLA36792820080505
The speed at which damage is inflicted on enemey should ensure that the enemy is defated while the war remains sustainable.
So speed does matter
casc,
this war also driven by political considerations...simple example give by moshe dyan,
"after ananda sangari's appeal not to carryout night air raids, night SLAF raids have ACTUALLY stopped!! what a DOOR of opportunity for the tigers? "
panhinda,
"Their input on ideas generated here will be valuable in terms of whether its practical or not."
yes. but grabing the attention of anybody is not going to do anything. it must be someone capable of making decisions.
navindran,
true we are keyboard warriors without experience. But...
1. there are brainy guys here. they can provide valuable insights
2. there have been OBVIOUS shortcomings on the part of the SLDFs. an ouitsider would have spotted them easily.
3. the SLDFs are expereinced. but they are NOT experienced in winning many battles (no insult intended). this is the truth. so A LOT of potential exists in the avenues of rethinking some strategies and "Ways of doing things"
4. SLDF personnel are not the brightest, to say the least. due to the prolonged war, low comperative salaries and high risks most smart guys DO NOT join the SLDFs. this also gives a lot of room for improvement
5. redtape, bureaucracy is strife within the defece establishment. this is a barrier to new thinking. an outsider can contribute alot.
6. there is virtually no R&D activity. in contrast tigers are the BEST in R&D among all terrorists in the world!! this is unacceptable. engineers, etc. can help revive R&D activity. this is a must to improve productivity.
7. the SL war is unique. there are no comparables. we are treading unchartered territory.
e.g. the usual target acquisition from surveillence and attacking has not worked well in SL. we need surveillence that can "wait for" the tigers. but our equipment are not suitable for that.
another e.g. recently pucara/super tucano planes were featured as COIN (counter insurgency) planes. but in the SL context they are useless. why? because although "politically" we have an "insurgency" but it is nowhere near a Latin American "insurgency". our "insurgent" are quite capable of putting down these planes!!
another e.g.
many SLA soldiers are losing limbs to landmines, APMs. but can we operate a multi-million dollar mine clearing machine? No. it will be shelled by the tigers as they shelled our bulldozers in muhamalai.
my apologies for bring up robert mcnamara again. he wanted to amass ideas from "brainy guys" in all levels of the US forces. his criteria was math skills. everybody's data were in punchcards. these were sorted and the "cream" was identified. they were asked to suggest efficiency improvements.
OMG! they came up with most amazing stuff. (the FOG OF WAR).
Tiger leader sought $3M from Canada
LINK
New fighting in Sri Lanka kills 16 rebels, 2 soldiers
LINK
More time to question Tamil three: UK
LINK
Moshe Dyan
As u have mentioned R&D is pretty important.
Can’t our university and tech guys develop a pair of boots for these antipersonnel mines(jonny), I think they can do, problem is they were not given the sort of tasks, it’s so painful getting out brothers handicapped ,
In surveillance my point is we need to have very high power rader equipment that can be bought the money that we have thermal ,optical, radio what ever possible and flight which capable of carrying all these can act as an satellite
Then we might be able to do real-time surveillance, we might be able to find and track enemy movements, concentration, artillery positions that might helpful for air force to destroy enemy structures and equipments
I think it’s not impossible to find two three guys to assemble these gadgets for bearable cost
Patriot,
What kind of boots do you have in mind?
[The Chief Minister was speaking on several pro-LTTE resolutions moved by pro-LTTE Pattali Makkal party leader Mr. Gnakoon Sudarshan. The resolution requested the Indian Central government to exert pressure on the Sri Lanka Government to stop the Wanni military operations against the Tigers forthwith. The Chief Minster explained that the military operations against the LTTE is not a war against the Tamil people. The Tamilnadu Congress leader Mr. Gnasekaran and Mr. Hasan Ali opposed the resolution and voiced their support to the Chief Ministers stance.
It was pointed out that the LTTE was a guerilla movement believing only in terrorism and a small armed group. The Chief Minister reiterated that the LTTE does not represent the Tamil community. The LTTE desperately needs Indians intervention to avert an ignoramus defeat, be stressed.
]
Hoo... hoooo... hoooo...
Well said Karunanidhi... and certainly that's a good display of how to throw out a well-used pair of dirty underpants... which you defended for long, long time time...
But... hey... be careful from now onwards... you may be a TRAITOR in the eyes of the great Tamil Diaspora... the keepers of the LTTE pigs...
Hoo... hoooh... hoooh!
Great to see them wriggling in pain...
DefWire,
A standard infantry army platoon in comparison to an equal LTTE unit seems to carry far less firepower. LTTE always seem to have .50 inch on tripods providing cover to carders moving forward. The military on the other hand typically has 7.62 GPMG. It seems this is one area where they have the upper hand unless amoured tanks are used along with infantry.
I suppose this is the vacuum where Mech-Infantry was meant to fill. The only problem is of course the cost of maintaining Mech-Infantry is very high. The other problem is soldiers are left vulnerable if tanks gets bogged down due to whether or other problems.
My theory is, it would be more efficient if the infantry is armed with higher caliber weapons rather than investing in Mech-Infantry. What are your thoughts?
[isn't muhamalai part of killinochi district and hence part of vanni? ]
Mugamalai is part of Jaffna. Anything falls after Elephant Pass considered as Wanni.
[Patriot,
What kind of boots do you have in mind?]
May be high heels with wheels on.
dear peter,
"UC1 was a must do for the LTTE as it had lost its main bastion, Jaffna, during Dec 1995.
"Does the LTTE need a UC1 now? Answer is no. All main bases in Vanni (Irainamadu, Mulaiteevu, EPS) are still under LTTE control."
But not the Eastern Province, the LTTE's manpower pool during JS. The LTTE's performance from August 06 to July 07 was fairly dismal, if you compare it with how Karuna had fought the govt. in the early 1990s before going to Pooneryn in 93. The LTTE attacked the govt's FDLs at Mukamalai with poor results. This was before the establishment of 57-59th Divisions when Mannar and Weli Oya were relatively vulnerable (DW can correct me if I'm wrong). Why didn't the LTTE attack those areas?
UC1, 2, & 3 were not necessities but rather opportunities. The LTTE would've never attacked Mullaitivu if the garrison had been prepared. What we are seeing today is that the SLA has not been giving the LTTE too many opportunities and that is why the diaspora is not being entertained with great glorious victories.
With the East, the LTTE was able to throw Batticaloa children as cannon fodder to slow down the Army's advance while preserving the LTTE's more elite units for counterattack. Without the East, that role is being played by Vanni grannies and the other auxiliaries. The former was sustainable but it remains to be clear whether the latter is.
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