Chelvan's Funeral Minus Mother and Siblings

A mysterious artillery attack on Omanthai entry-exit point north of Vavuniya closed down that gateway to LTTE controlled area last afternoon, hours before the funeral of LTTE 'Brigadier' Thamilchelvan. The closure was subsequent to the withdrawal of the ICRC and SLA sentries from the checkpoint following artillery shells that fell near the Omanthai checkpoint, which is the last checkpoint in government areas along the A-9 Highway until Muhamalai in Jaffna.

Sources indicated that Tamil mourners, including the mother of Thamilchelvan were among those who couldn't cross over to LTTE areas in time for the funeral in Kilinochchi. Chelvan's body was taken along streets in Kilinochchi followed by a motorcade. Thamilchelvan's mother and several siblings living in a developed country had arrived the same day to, ironically the Katunayake airport. Why they were not smuggled in and asked to follow normal procedure in entering LTTE controlled areas through the unsafe Omanthai checkpoint where civilians normally wait for hours long until artillery duels subside, is puzzling.

The no-man's land ahead of Omanthai, and the checkpoint itself has been a location for many bitter battles in recent days. There was also no clear indication that the SLA was informed in advance of their coming. The SLA had cooperated in other such funerals such as this, like the funeral of the Batticaloa-Amparai Political Leader Kausalyan (Arasial Poruppalar) for example. Why the much mourned leader's next of kin were treated in this manner by the LTTE when Pripaharan's loved-ones are smuggled in from India by Sea Tigers and special escorts of suicide boats, for example, is the question.

A State's Right to Assassination Against Terrorists

Michael Walzer from Princeton University, USA in his work Just and Unjust War argues that assassination of terrorist leaders is a form of extreme law-enforcement. Professor Louis Rene Beres from Perdue University USA strongly argues that though assassination is normally illegal under international law, limited support for assassination can be found in Aristotle's Politics, Plutarch's Lives and Cicero's De Offices. Prof. Beres argues that;

i. No crime without punishment is a sacred principle of international law.

ii. Where known perpetrators of crimes cannot be punished through normal judicial remedy (i.e. extradition and prosecution) the criminals have to be punished extra-judicially, and assassination may be the least injurious form of such punishment.

iii. The right of self defence as codified in article 51 of the UN Charter and customary right of anticipatory and preemptive attack could include assassination as a distinct law enforcing measure. Justification sought in such assassinations must have the two essential invariants that they must be terrorists and their crimes cannot be remedied through normal judicial process.

Beres further states that “Lacking any central institutions of global authority to interpret and enforce the rules against terrorism, the existing law of nations must continue to rely on even the most objectionable forms of self-help”.

Some International Examples of Assassinations by States against Terrorists;

• British Commando raid to assassinate German General Alfred Rommel during World War II(Charles Foley’s Legion for the Survival of Freedom. 1992, page 155)
• Phoenix Program of US Military assassinated 1800 Viet Kong Leaders per day.
• Israel Defence Force’s targeting of Hamas Leaders
• From 1991 to 2006, Russia assassinated Chechnyan leaders including Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev.
• CIA assisted assassination of Rafael Trujillo, dictator of the Dominican Republic
• 1960 Eisenhower administration ordered assassination of Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba
• Eight different attempts by the CIA to kill Fidel Castro
• Assassination of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem and Che Guevara
• Reagan administration's air strikes to kill Libya's Qaddafi killing his baby daughter instead.
  
• Assassination of Fathi Shiqaqi, leader of the terrorist group Islamic Holy War by Israeli Intelligence in Malta on October 26^th 1995.
• Assassination in March 2005 Haitham al-Yemeni of Al-Qaeda in northwestern Pakistan.
• Assassination on 3^rd December 2005 of Al Qaeda’s Abu Hamza Rabia while sleeping in a small village in Northern Pakistan.
• Assassination attempt in Damadola village Pakistan of Al Qaeda’s Number two Ayman al-Zawahiri killing 18 civilians instead.
• Assassination on 3rd November 2002 of Qaed Senyan al-Harthi, an al-Qaeda leader responsible for the USS Cole bombing in Yemen.

1. Beres, Louis. Rene. Assassination Of Terrorists May Be Law-Enforcing. Purdue University. 1995.

2. Masud Kazi, Anwarul. Assassination As a Tool of Statecraft. The Daily Star (Bangladesh), Vol.4 nu.110, Sunday 14 September 2003

Increased Security in Colombo

Security in Colombo has been beefed up following fresh intelligence warnings. Snap roadblocks, cordon and search operations and other measures have been taken by the Security Forces and Police. A police officer on duty at the Colombo Harbour allegedly gathering information for the LTTE has been gunned down by two unidentified men on a motorcycle. Security officials said they were in no way responsible for any delays caused to civilians due to the new security measures.

Meanwhile Human Rights Watch has requested the British government to try former LTTE Commander Karuna Amman (Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan) for war crimes. Human Rights Watch accused Amman of attacks on humanitarian workers and forcible recruitment of child soldiers. Karuna was arrested last Friday in a joint operation by British Immigration Officers and British Police for holding a forged passport bearing a Sinhalese name.

Former Karuna's aid and the chief Financial Officer of the Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal, Sinnathambi has been injured in a grenade attack at Navaladi Batticaloa. One of his aids traveling in the same van was killed. Altogether six cadres from the party, including Sinnathamby have been admitted to the Polonnaruwa Hospital. Two critically wounded cadres out of the six admitted were later transferred to Colombo Hospital's Emergency Ward. The body of the dead cadre has been taken away by the TMVP.

Scenario-Building for More War on the Cards

Amidst the speculation following the Thamilchelvan killing and the Army's stepped-up attacks on the Vanni FDL are several hypothetical scenarios being built by Pro-LTTE sources and others. These include the following;

1. SLA is planning a major upward thrust from Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli Oya FDL
2. Military will continue attacks on LTTE leadership
3. SLA is planning an operation to capture Pooneryn
4. LTTE will launch Kamikaze-style attack to kill The President, Secretary Defence etc.
5. LTTE will attack the Colombo Habour

Given the existing scenario, the following analysis can be made for the moment;

1. SLA has intensified confrontations with LTTE along the Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli Oya FDLs. In any of these confrontations they have not attempted to seize control of land. The attacks are aimed at maximizing LTTE casualties and minimizing own casualties. These have been backed by air-strikes on identified LTTE assets. Such aerial attacks, according to information we have received, have bewildered LTTE to some extent. In recent months SLAF has bombed newly-built LTTE camps. The significance of these attacks is the fact that LTTE builds camps in secret and in locations that cannot easily be spied at. They are masters at using the terrain to camouflage their camps. The fact that the SLA and SLAF have attacked these camps indicates information leaks in the LTTE. This is very clearly 3rd Generation war where the objective is to collapse the enemy from within.

2. The latest attack on Thamilchelvan was made following technical details of his departure from Pooneryn and arrival in an unknown location in Kilinochchi. From that point onwards, military planners seem to have narrowed down his exact domicile using a mixture of pre-gathered and real-time information. They have also developed, from the likes of this attack, a detailed map of Thamilchelvan's movements and routine while in Kilinochchi. This type of information was almost non-existent prior to the Cease-Fire Agreement, thus indicating that Military Intelligence has done some homework during the CFA to cultivate sources within the LTTE. The likelihood of similar plans existing for the LTTE leader Pirapaharan is also high. This suddenly changes the perspective of the war. It increases the number of direct threats to the lives of LTTE leaders by 100%. Previous to this, only the Long Range Reconnaissance Patrol was effective against such targets. Ironically Thamilchelvan's assassination mirrors LTTE's own detailed planning to assassinate leaders in the south.

3. Thamilchelvan was engaged in leading an assault team in Pooneryn before he returned to Kilinochchi. Pro-LTTE media has also claimed of an imminent attack by SLA to capture Pooneryn. Pooneryn is an area crucial in the battle for Jaffna. It is an area, if captured by SLA, could increase the safety of areas like the Palaly Military Base Complex housing men and assets of significant military value. It is also the existing 'guaranteed' transport route available to troops in the case the sea route is made unavailable. What is not clear is whether the Army is willing to open two front-lines, one in Vanni, the other in Jaffna preemptively. This could be a significant burden on troops as the area would have to be held. This comes at a time when large numbers of troops, including elite troops have been deployed elsewhere on defensive roles. Our estimate is that it could be a defensive preparation to proactively diffuse any LTTE attempt to capture the area along the Kilali Lagoon and northwards along areas guarded by the 55th Division.

4. LTTE launching Kamikaze attack on a key southern leader is a possibility but not a probability. There are certain limitations to this attack. The first is the LTTE's willingness to sacrifice its assets that have been their psychological advantage in recent times. The assets also include trained pilots. The Zlin Z-143 aircraft is not an accurate bomber. It can however be used as a suicide craft. Again the limitation is for the attack craft to travel during daytime when many leaders are active politically or militarily. Traveling from Mannar, Mullaithivu or Kilinochchi to Colombo or any other southern city in broad daylight would be a serious challenge. Obtaining such accurate targets at night when the leaders are not active is also a considerable challenge.

5. An attack on the Colombo Harbour is tricky. The area, including the small islets are well guarded. the attack could however come in the form of a stealth submarine as indicated by this site previously. This would limit the number of infiltrators as a small submarine cannot carry an 8 or 12 man team in one go. All other possibilities have been taken into consideration and preparations made. The LTTE would have to discover the chink in the Navy's armour for this. The Navy, to its credit, has never lost a base to the LTTE in the recent past.

Eye for an Eye ('the LTTE is already blind')

LTTE Leader V. Pripaharan with Norwegians and
his Right and Left-hand men- Thamilchelvan and
Vaithiyalingam Sornalinga alias 'Col' Shankar,
October 21st 2000 Kilinochchi.

LTTE Leader Veupillai Pripaharan has released a statement to the media lamenting the loss of Suppayya Paramu Thamilchelvan (43) killed in an Aerial Attack by SLAF Ground Attack crafts from Number 10 and Number 05 Fighter Squadrons, ironically the same squadron the Tigers attempted to destroy at Katunayake on 24th July 2001 and again on 26th March 2007. Both attacks were planned by Velupillai along with Pottu Amman and Balraj. The LTTE's attack plan on Katunayake was enhanced significantly by the knowledge of aircrafts by 'Col' Shankar, the Founder of the Air Tigers. Two months later, on 26th September 2006, around 10 in the morning 'Col' Shankar was killed in Oddusudan by the Army's Long Ranger Reconnaissance Patrol (LRRP). Themilchelvan had escaped Shankar's fate by a whisker around two months before the Katunayake attack at Kokavil in the general area Mankulam on 16th May 2001.

Chelvan had escaped this fate only to face the wreath of an angry SLAF, at his usual haunt in Thuruaiaru in Iranamadu Kilinochchi yesterday, in an area increasingly targeted by the SLAF. The bombardment came two weeks after the Anuradhapura attack. Velupillai Pripaharan has now lost both his left and right-hand men, with the loss of the so-called International 'Human Face' of the LTTE. In his statement released today, Pripaharan says "I taught him as my own beloved younger brother....I raised him as a great commander, an unparalleled political head, a diplomat who communicated with the entire world, and a skilled negotiator." Can Pripaharan expect to preserve lives of those beloved to him when he himself take others' lives?

Meanwhile some Pro-LTTE Tamil websites operated by Tamil Diaspora have started a poll to select the 'Rajapakse Brother' to be killed in revenge for Thamilchelvan's death. They have titled the poll 'An eye for an eye (the world is already blind)' .

We can reasonably assume that the LTTE and its funding sources have forgotten past lessons. The South cannot be convinced to giving up through violence. The more the LTTE violence, the more the Southern violence towards them. For the Sinhala South at least, losing a President or 'an eye for an eye' is a familiar situation having lost a President, numerous Ministers, Military Leaders, Political Leaders, Intellectuals, Diplomats etc to LTTE violence. Somehow, despite all these losses, there seem to be new political and military leaders emerging from the South who are hell-bent on destroying the LTTE.

Tamil Selvan Killed- 2nd Lead

LTTE Leader Paying Last Respects to Suppayya Paramu Tamilchelvan (Tamil Selvan)

The Leader of the LTTE's Political Wing S.P. Tamil Selvan has been killed in an Air Force Raid on his residence in Kilinochchi this morning. Six other cadres from the Military Wing, including Lt. Col Alex, Tamil Selvan's personal Bodyguard and several close protection 'officers' were also killed in the raid this morning.

Originally from the Military Wing, Selvan was a close confidante of Pripaharan since 1980. Although he was in charge of the political wing, Selvan was primarily a military man performing numerous military functions along side the usual political activities. In fact Tamil Selvan was in charge of military duties in the general area Pooneryn. He is originally from Chavakachcheri, which is situated adjacent to Pooneryn, which made him a natural selection in coordinating military activities in Pooneryn. The Sri Lanka Army was monitoring his movements for several months. The Air Force was given coordinants to a residence Selvan used during his stay in Kilinochchi. The attack was conducted when Selvan returned from his military duties to Kilinochchi. His loss would be felt very strongly by the LTTE as Selvan had become the 'human face' of the LTTE internationally.

Meanwhile LTTE renagade leader Karuna has been arrested in London for possessing a fradulent passport bearing a Sinhala name. He is due to be deported to Sri Lanka. His wife and family are currently residing in Scotland.

Countering Force Multiplication

The recent LTTE attack in Anuradhapura is an example of Force Multiplication in 4^th Generation War. The 21 Black Tigers acted as a Force Multiplier for the Tigers, shifting the Center of Gravity of the War. If the Sri Lanka Government is to overcome this threat, it must identify and use its Force Multipliers to good effect. They must also transform themselves from waging a 3^rd Generation War (3GW) to a 4^th Generation War (4GW or Counter-Insurgency).

Let’s understand these concepts and their applicability to the conflict. A Force Multiplier is a factor, person or unit that can dramatically increase effectiveness in war to reverse losses and increase prospects for victory. 3^rd Generation war is linear but tactical use of units to infiltrate, bypass and collapse an enemy. 4^th Generation War is a tactic used by non-state actors engaged in asymmetric war against a state. Asymmetric war is a war between a stronger military entity and a weaker military entity.

The Beechcraft, UAVs and the Fighter Jets were Force Multipliers for the Military. The LTTE destroyed them because of their force multiplication effect. The Military uses specially trained units as Force Multipliers in 3^rd Generation War to infiltrate, bypass and collapse the enemy and attack it from the rear (LRRP). The LTTE counters the Military’s 3^rd Generation War through Defence in Depth - meaning the longer the infiltration by the Army, the greater the resistance by LTTE. The LTTE also uses Black Tigers in 4^th Generation Wars to attack physical, psychological and moral elements of the Military. This enables them to change the Center of Gravity of the war from Tamil Nationalism and grievances to effective Terrorism or Insurgency depending on the LTTE’s requirement. The state cannot shift its Center of Gravity like a non-state actor does since it is bound by principles of good-governance.

So how can a state win in asymmetric war where the weaker side uses effective terrorist tactics and 4th Generation War? Military History provides examples of states winning such wars through a ‘simple’ formula;

1. Invest on quality, highly-trained and disciplined infantrymen and not on expensive weapons. (Quality not Quantity)
2. Understand your weaknesses, the enemy and the terrain (Sun Tsu in The Art of War says know your Enemy, Know yourself. Know the terrain)
3. Win the ‘hearts and minds’ of the local (Tamil) population for better intelligence gathering by avoiding collective punishment and the risk of damage to civilians.
4. Separate politics from war, soldier from civilian and peace from conflict.
5. Move from tactical linear warfare (3GW) to Counter-insurgency and Counter Terrorism tactics (anti-4GW).
6. Sparing use of Elite units as Force Multipliers. (i.e. Special Forces)
7. Preservation and proper use of assets with Force Multiplication impacts (i.e. Beechcraft, UAVs etc).