Sunday, January 13, 2008

Final Battle On...Officially

The final battle to recapture the Vanni is officially declared. Army Commander Lt. Gen Sarath Fonseka, talking to local journalists have revealed the intention to recapture Tiger Heartlands. The declaration of intent comes after the abrogation of the CFA and observations of LTTE defensive actions, specially in Mullaithivu, Mannar and Pooneryn sectors.

According to reports and DefenceWire's own sources, five specially trained Offensive Formations comprising Task Force I (Commanded by Maj. Gen. Jagath Jayasuriya), which includes the 57 Offensive Division advancing towards Vavuniya North, Kilinochchi and Mullaithivu from Vavuniya, 58 Offensive Division (Commando, 10GR, 8SR, 6,8 and 9GW) advancing from Mannar South to Mannar North and Kilinochchi (via Parappakandal, Adampan, Mullikulam etc), the newest addition, the 59 Offensive Division under Brigadier Nandana Udawatte, which commenced the advance on Monday towards Mullaithivu from Weli Oya and Task Force II comprising the 53 and 55 Divisions, including 1 Commando, 1 Special Forces, Air Mobile, 5th Gemunu (3 GW, Muhamale) and 8th Wijeyaba (8 VIR, Nagarkovil) Regiments advancing towards Pooneryn will trap the Tigers into their territory, forcing the Tigers to go on the defensive. In addition 2 and 3 Commando and 2 and 3 Special Forces Regiments will performing medium and deep battle-space operations, offensive raids and other specialized roles. Newly formed Mechanized Infantry Units integrated into each Task Force will spearhead the advance.

An unspecified, yet high number (possibly around 500) of LTTE fighters, including elite Charles Anthony, Soothiya and Malathi unit fighters have been killed and an equal number injured in recent fighting in North Mannar, North Vavuniya, Weli Oya, Muhamalai and Nagarkovil. The total number of LTTE killed since the start of fresh offensives in the last quarter of 2006 could be over 2500 with the SLA implementing a 'Kill Ten a Day' policy in the five fronts mentioned before, and SLAF's relatively accurate bombings.

Casualties to own troops is around 1000 killed and over 4000 injured since the last quarter of 2006, of which about 25% will never return to the battlefield. These figures are expected to rise to at last threefold by mid to late 2008. SLA's calculations are to end the war by the end of August 2008. Many casualties are due to booby traps.

A heavy daily dose of mortars, artillery and rockets being fired at the Tigers every day, who are responding with own artillery. Face to face confrontations have been limited so far.

55 comments:

Vigilante said...

Defencewire,

SLAF must do the talking in Wanni..

Sending SLA in to LTTE mine fields is a Sin...


Think about the following idea..This was 1960 technology and an idea I am talking about..SLA can improve this further..


Instead of marching those SLA units to LTTE mine fields,
they should send a massive buldozer with a barriers made up of used TRUCK tyres fully inflated with air(better still with heavy non explosive gas other than usual air ).The tyre barriers must be placed infront and back as well as on the sides to absorb the damage from explosives.This is what the Australian Army did in Vietnam.They used this method to distroy 50000 mines planted by their own soldiers in and around a camp..The reason for the distruction of mines was, they lost the mine field MAP and the mines had to be distroyed in order to prevent accidential explosions.I saw a documentary in regards to this and how it was done...
The massive old rusty trucks can be used instead of a bulldozer...The fully inflated tyres will absorb any explosions...This is worth a try rather than sending those BRAVE men to their deaths..I have seen several dozens of unused SLA vehicles close to their camp in Colombo Fort.They can use these unused rusty vehicles which are rusting due to various reasons.)


The above method can be used to detonate LTTE mines and booby traps in the Killali defences or else where..

Making the truck remotely controlled is not a difficult task ...

Vigilante said...

Defencewire,


[Force II comprising the 53 and 55 Divisions, including 1 Commando, 1 Special Forces, Air Mobile, 5th Gemunu (3 GW, Muhamale) and 8th Wijeyaba (8 VIR, Nagarkovil) Regiments advancing towards Pooneryn will trap the Tigers into their territory

]


Two offensives the SLA started from Muhamale in 2001 and 2006 ended in disaster with heavy casualities on elite SLA units...The simple reason for the failure was amazing an attack force on a narrow strip of land, which is heavilly booby trapped by the enemy from Front...When the march is on, LTTE rained in their artillery and mortars.SLA is boxed in all fronts and slaughter starts...I think, if SLA attempt this again , the outcome will be NO BETTER. Instead, the SLA must wait for the other Vauniya fronts to make significant inroads towards enemy territory..Don't you think so?

I am not a millitray personal.



Sorry for my dumb idea.

LKDOOD said...

WOW !
thank you for the update Defencewire

LKDOOD said...

very interesting stuff on Mr Athas's Situation Report on the Sunday times

Mr. Iqbal Athas:

"Constraints prevent me from giving details except to add that a senior Army official told a top-level conference he was confident the Madhu church area would be under their control within the next two weeks. He said the troops were within six to seven kilometres from the Church area."

here is the full report

LINK

Sam Perera said...

lkhood,

Athas appears to be exaggerating what he knows a bit. His style of writing is akin to a doomsday prophecy. I am reluctant to give full credit to Athas’ statements. Anyway, what defencewire reveal here, perhaps, is the most significant news in Eelam War IV.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

So it has begun. I guess a more official declaration/ determined thrust would come on/after 16th?



The Army Chief has guaranteed to destroy LTTE by August 2008, and wipe it out altogether by end of 2008 (he says he wont leave LTTE problem to the next commander,and he retires after 1 year.Also he says no LTTE would be left to re-negotiate another Ceasefire Agreement).Though I remember recent statements from Govt side promising to wipe out LTTE by mid-2008 ie June.

I feel the LTTE is in its weakest phase now and the SL military at its strongest, for various reasons.
So its a big gamble for both sides--If the army wins it would be history for the LTTE--I dont think they can ever come back fully. If LTTE controls territory by ,say, end 2008 ,it would be history for the SL military option too. If it can't win this time, I dont think it ever will.

Either way the result goes, the outcome of this final phase of war will be discussed in military academies around the globe for decades;It will also in some ways decide the future of Sri Lanka--Unitary if LTTE wiped out, Federal if stalemate like 2001,and Tamil Independence if LTTE wins soundly.

Lets wait and watch. Meanwhile lets hope minimal civilain casualties are caused by both sides.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

I am very curious to hear Mr David Blackers views on the likely outcome of this phase of war(say by 31st Dec 2008 where will both sides stand?), knowing the strenghts and weaknesses of both sides.If Mr Blacker is online, Pl do respond.If there is one blogger whose analyses I find highly intelligent and informed in DN and DW, its him.

Moshe Dyan said...

Sending SLA in to LTTE mine fields is a Sin...

SLAF must do the taking of Wanni..

-Vigilante

I totally agree with you. There is no reason to sacrifice our men for crappy terrorists not worth a cyanide capsule.

War is an integral part of human existance and no one can in their right mind say it must be avoided AT ALL COSTS.

"one who is not willing to fight does not deserve to live"; I know the b****** who said this. But he is coorect; this is the law of mother nature.

According to hebrew scripts, a warrior who fights for his nation is a God's accomplice. The Land of the Morning Sun would be nothing but dust if not for violent wars they have fought throughout history. Good Luck Sri Lanka; God Bless Sri Lanka.

Setting time frames for war is only indicative. In the long run a difference in a few months or a few years do not make any difference. However, the war must be won ASAPP (as soon as practically possible). If anyone is to manage the war as project management, he is an idiot.

War ends when there are no more terrorists to kill. But we need a political solution (not a racist federalism based one, there are many other choices) to bring lasting peace.

Wars have exhausted even the world super powers and surely this war will exhaust SL; SL's problem is EXACTLY similar to a cancer. Its treatment utterly exhaust the patient; but painful treatments and operations MUST continue to save the patient; it is either the patient or the cancer.

For god's sake, please, all pro-srilankans must flock together without personal agendas. But unfortunately for them there are those who do not unite. As the saying goes LUNATICS NEVER UNITE!

"please continue with the CFA; we will adhere to it 100% this time; please stay Norwegians"
- S Nadesan, January 2008

jiffy said...

vigilante, yes, i totally agree. something like this might work in the open, relatively flat terrain of the vanni. military planners cannot expect our comrades to just walk into mine fields. if i was a soldier id like to face the enemy (at least once), not lose a leg to a johnny before even firing my weapon.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

""a difference in a few months or a few years do not make any difference""

I beg to differ.It does, especially where peoples expectations have been raised to fever pitch by confident predictions--you dont keep the prediction and the same people would be after you.CBK and her team were once hailed as great heroes after initial victories, now where are they?
The Rajapakse Govt was elected on a promise of victory within a time frame,and victory it must deliver or perish(by the ballot/JVP/JHU)
Moreover IC backing can change with time too--eg a change of power and policies in USA or India.
Also SL does not have an endless source of money to fight the war with--it needs periods of respite to recoup.

""If anyone is to manage the war as project management, he is an idiot.""
True! By making bombastic predictions this regime risk making an idiot of itself.

""SL's problem is EXACTLY similar to a cancer.""
There are many types of cancers.Some cancers localise to only one part of the body and can be easily cured if that area is detached early--eg lipoma, melanoma etc. I consider LTTE a regional problem with a clearcut demand.On the other hand people like Al-Queda require the treatment prescribed by you because they dont have any clear agenda except destroying you.

nemesis said...

DefenceWire,

Has one of our miltary arms equipped some of its units with the NORINCO Type-97A 5.56mm Bullpup?

I saw them being carried by a patrol. So its no secret.

The Type-97A was used by the Tigers in the AAB attack. And was used by prabhas and other Tiger leaders bodyguard units.

Srilankan said...

vigilante.. i am with you mate.No your ideas are far from dumb.You dont have to be a military man to use basic logic.I hope the army has learnt a few lessons.
DefenceNet-(when you have the time)so within an year we have lost 1000 soldiers and 4000 wounded or is it 15 months?.Is this just the army and not those troops dead due to suicide attacks on buses etc.

Srilankan said...

Well said moshe agree with you fully.

Gopi Kengatharan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
shay said...

Vigilante

As I said on the other blog, we don't need to re-invent mine breaching systems. There are many such technologies on the market, see links below for just two of them.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipersonnel_Obstacle_Breaching_System
www.defense-update.com/news/6702carpet.htm

Driving remote control vehicles across mine fields is not going to work, and anyway its something like a mechanical flail which has been used since WWII. For one thing a mine field is not a narrow stretch of land. There are mined areas all along the FDL's and troop movements are over a wide front. The southern FDL stretches pretty much from the west coast all the way to the east coast.

Portable mine/anti personnel obstacle clearing systems as given above will be more effective. They can be carried and used wherever as required.

The use of mechanised infantry units and more use of APC's will also help to minimise casualties from mines.

Ram said...

This is the war between the dumb and dumber, so one dumb has to start sooner or later, its so unfortunate that people still think this war can be won Milterly, I think the tamils' don't have much to loose, so the bigger looser will be the Sinhalese. Best of luck, either the tamils will die or will get Eelam. Best of Luck Sri Lanka! Be ready to say Welcome to Tamil Eelam!

Srilankan said...

Shay..i see a seasoned(not the conscripts..kids-who dont want to fight) LTTE cadre as a ruthless butcher who is waiting ..desperately waiting for the mechanised armoured units..desperatly waiting.(even if supported by infantry)..so he can use his antitank weapon..he likes to see articles on fire like on a video game.The answer is the airforce.

chamal said...

Defencewire,
Can you explain the difference between the Commandos and the Special Forces? Which is considered as the 'elite' unit of the army?

srilankan,
I don't think the army will just send the mechanized infantry charging into the battlefield knowing that ltte would be prepared for them. There must be a better plan. Anyway we'll see when they go into battle. (And good luck to them, let's hope they do it in style)

Srilankan said...

chamal..see we have a very difficult problem..the problem is this criminal Vp is placing inexperienced cadres from normal families in the front line and they are being killed by the dozen..so when we eventually capture wanni..we are going to be opening up a large number of cemetaries..this should not be our legacy to the peace loving tamil people.this operation therefore cannot be conducted as a conventional batte.But look at the benefit to us if we can return most of these kids back to their famililies..because i am sure they dont want war.The only idiots who want this LTTE are some(not all) tamil diasphora who are using the less fortunate tamils in srilanka to do their fighting while they are having fun overseas.So much for sinhala racism ..i wonder who is the more racist in this situation.

chamal said...

When the mechanized infantry moves in, the LTTE will have no choice but to send their experienced and better cadres to the frontlines, won't they? Is that the army's plan, to get them there and then launch some massive attack against them, and get the LTTE to surrender after being unable to hold on to their land after losing most of their experienced cadres? They will only have the inexperienced cadres, who the army is trying to spare. (I don't know if this is dumb, just occurred to me)

Srilankan said...

i dont think so chamal but then again you may be right..it is very difficult to say without knowing the ground situation..
well lets put it this way they are first going to draw the mechanised units into a very narrow area(geographic obstacles) and then open up with the field guns..
As for the cadres they will send the inexperienced ones first to do as much damage as they can.(we need to find ways for them to surrender) because when people see their children dying in their front gardens they are going to go ballistic..and hack VP instead..so thy cant keep them in wanni and have to be sent to the frontlines.

LKDOOD said...

Japan Peace Envoy Hints Aid For Sri Lanka May Be Denied -AFP


LINK

LKDOOD said...

36 LTTE fighters, one soldier killed in Sri Lanka: Army
LINK

TropicalStorm said...

IMPORTANT request to all patriotic Sri Lankans

Please visit the FBI top story on 'Tamil the Tamil Tigers - from here in the USA' and circulate it to your foreign associates and friends:

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/tamil_tigers011008.html

LKDOOD said...

Chandrasekaran: India should involve itself

LINK

LKDOOD said...

India upgrades coastal security to face Tiger threats

LINK

LKDOOD said...

Jaya, Vaiko target Lankan navy
LINK

Observer said...

If Iqbal Athas knows something I think that’s what he has written in the situation report in Sunday Times. However I agree ( believe ) with the previous comment that he tries to exaggerate what knows by citing constraints put upon him by the defence authorities. If you have followed his reports over a long period of time anyone would realize this. If he has anything beyond what he generally writes it could very well be his imagination.

Except for the most recent article , most of his articles in the past , more or less tries to settle his personal scores with various defence ranks and very less informative.

Upul said...

Why GOSL will loose and loose badly at that...

By a learned individual:

www.lankaenews.com/English/news.php?id=5219

Lankapura said...

Fantastic to see nobody responding to the idiots :-D

Renegade! said...

Guys/defwire
the soldier carrying a weapon in this sunday's THE NATION front-page..is it an american M-16 assault rifle?..by the way,was hoping if i could know the current small-arms used by the armed forces..

Thushanthi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Thushanthi said...

Some news about the 'learned Individual' Upul has mentioned.

Had been a member of Parliment some time back AND;

@ RAVAYA. Sunday Oct. 14, 2001

11 MINISTERS, WHO DID NOT PAY BACK LOANS, TO FACE LEGAL ACTION.

It is reported that People's Bank alone has filed legal action against 11 ministers and former MPs, who have defaulted loans they have taken from the bank, in order to recover them. An MP is entitled to a loan of Rs. 500,000/ or less without a mortgage.

Meanwhile EPDP leader DOUGLAS DEVANADA also must pay Rs. 35 million to People's Bank, which could not be reclaimed.

Close friend of the President Ronnie Peiris has also borrowed Pds. Sterling 650,000/ (Rs. 84.5 million) from the London branch of People's Bank, which he is not paying back.

The following are the other defaulters.

Dinesh Dodangoda. Loan taken on 24-11-97 Rs. 409,548.00 (outstanding)
U.A.E.Premaratne.09-05-98 Rs. 479,810.00(outstanding)
Pradeep Hapangama. 04-05-98 Rs. 970,625.00(outstanding)
R.M.B. Ratnayake 07-09-98 Rs. 489,125.00(outstanding)
P. Ashoka De Silva 07-04-99 Rs. 1.240,603.00(outstanding)
J.C. Alawathuwala 30-12-98 Rs. 251,125.00(outstanding)
M. Chandrakumara 06-11-98 Rs. 286,496.00(outstanding)
H. Thangavelu. 08-09-98 Rs. 233,302.00(outstanding)
S.A.R. Thondaman 04-08-98 Rs. 236,837.00(outstanding)
U.L.M. Farookh 16-06-98 Rs. 410, 175.00(outstanding)

An MP is entitled to a loan of Rs. 500,000/ or less without a mortgage


No wonder the country is in this status with 'horu' like this obtaining Phds' from the people's money!!!

Srilankan said...

thushanthi..have these people been paying interest on their outstand ing debt..and how much were the loans for initially..thats what is interesting to findout..to see if there has been any activity w.r.to paybacks...97-99 period..who was the prime minister/pres then..cant remember..do you know?

Srilankan said...

Also your text does not include when Mr Douglas Devananda & peiris took out the loan..who sponsored their applications etc...I am sur e the peoples bank didnt say ok "yuor a good boy" therefore i am going to give you a loan.No offense intended to you.I think what is important here is the "whole picture" and not "selected" information.

jiffy said...

victor perera (IGP) has hinted that cctv will soon be introduced to strategic points in the capitol. a very good development.

Renegade! said...

yesterdays the NATION articles,by DBS jeyaraj,has shown a tremendous transformation,from his earlier articles,when at sunday leader,which was biased towards the tigers-indeed we thought he was a tiger journalist!!..but yesterday's superbly written analysis,has cast all those doubts aside.it was a well-balanced article,pointing fingers at no one..

LKDOOD said...

LTTE front organisations running riot in UK
LINK

LKDOOD said...

Sri Lanka says no immediate ban on Tamil Tigers

LINK

SnakeVI said...

About time!

TropicalStorm said...

lkdood;

Re; your posting on Japan denying aid...it turns out that Akashi is vely-happy with evelythin he's seen in Sli lanka.

Akashi like Mr.Maina vely much. No stop money now..

TropicalStorm said...

Local made bombs that could easily devastate LTTE concentration; Click on each item carefully.

http://lankaenews.com/English/sri%20lanka%20models%20pictures.php

TropicalStorm said...

Thushanthi

Interesting to see a couple of chaps I personally know listed by you.
Let me assure you that for them the numbers you've given are only pocket change. They are politicians, crooked somewhat, but not necessarily the type to steal from the common man. The guys I know are also educated (yes, really!) and would nt put themselves in a position of legal jeopardy.

Panhinda said...

I am waiting for the annual TamilNet Thai Pongal message. The work load must be really heave these days.

For others, I wish the best of Thai Pongal.

LKDOOD said...

happy Thai Pongal everyone :)

Thushanthi said...

Well, I think I have mentioned that my post is an extract from the Ravaya Newspaper October 14th 2001. I did not claim that the facts are 100% correct.

Knowing our SL politiciens, (I loath 99.9% of them!!!) I tend to always think the worst of them and I am yet to find that I have been wrong. So there!!!!

Srilankan said...

Tropicalstorm..this article about the loans although true..im sure..is a "snapshot" of a series of actual events which are not stated in the paper.

Thushanthi said...

Maybe not 99.9%. I did have respect for the likes of Lakshman Kadirgamar.

LKDOOD said...

'200 Tigers killed since CFA scrapped'

LINK


Japan 'reviews' aid to SriLanka


LINK


India helped countering LTTE: Sri Lanka


LINK

LKDOOD said...

Hi Thushanthi
nice to see ladies here :)

LKDOOD said...

Sri Lanka to Eliminate Rebels

LINK

Renegade! said...

www.defence.pk

check it out!! superb!!

LKDOOD said...

40 militants killed in clashes, Japanese envoy issues warning

LINK

LKDOOD said...

nice site Renegade!

ty for sharing :)

Defencewire said...

vigilante,
The period in consideration is from August 2006, when fighting escalated to the present (Jan 2008).

chamal,
Commandos and SF are both Special Operations Forces. Both habe 3 Regiments. The difference is their morale and leadership. SF has better morale and better leadership than CR. CR is performing VIP and VVIP security, which has dampened them somewhat. CR however receives the longest training (11 months) while SF receives around 9 months.

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