Friday, April 25, 2008

The numbers game

Due to various propaganda estimates, guesstimates and copycat figures we would like to clear the casualty figure in the Army in the confrontation on the 23rd. Some sources had made false claims that 143 bodies of soldiers were lying in 3 funeral parlors in Colombo.

Others claimed figures were close to Tamilnet, which is 34 men more than the actual figure. We do not wish to discuss the Army's own figures for obvious reasons. According to reliable sources 88 soldiers were dead by last evening while 376 were injured and the remains of 28 more categorized as missing were handed over by ICRC in Vavuniya. This means a total of 116 were killed.

Of the 376, 174 are P1 and P2 (seriously and somewhat seriously wounded) while 190 categorized as P3 or walking wounded. If some of the soldiers in P1 die fighting for their lives in hospital, the actual number could increase. However, this is NOT the case at this moment in time.

The casualties to the LTTE is unknown. What is known for sure is that 17 dead Tiger bodies were recovered from Muhamalai and Kilali. We kindly request our readers not to be misled by propaganda, ill informed and copycat sites.

41 comments:

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

The LTTE has raised its toll to 25.Not impossible if majority of SLA caualties was by indirect fire and not direct confrontation.

However the SLA seem to have abandoned the battlefield in total disarray--only this can explain the leaving behind of so many bodies by a much superior force not lacking in logistical support,in open featureless terrain.
Also I cant understand why only 12 helmets left behind while 50 guns etc were captured? Does it mean the dead were mostly bandanna guys(ie Special Forces/Commandos etc?).


DW was indeed the FIRST website to publish fall of Madhu--I googled all web engines and blogs for several hours after first publication with zero confirmation.
However the final figures are indeed closer to Tamilnet than MoD.One must remember, Tamilnet said 150 SLA dead and 400 injured bang after the campaign retreated,in first post itself.The MoDs first post said 15 SLA killed and 43 LTTE dead, till it was forced to change the numbers by weight of evidence.Also it is not doing much for MoD credibility when it cannot account for its own KIA/MIA but giving inflated and detailed accounts of enemy dead, down to the names of combatants:)

Side Effect said...

Look what Lankaenews says,
http://www.lankaenews.com/English/news.php?id=5744

These Free Media Movement dollar crows should be hung in public.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

'Lanka-e-News' believes that issuing false reports on the killed war heroes is disrespect to them.
**
Everybody has their own 'source'and they too believe they are doing the right thing.
Better to have a defective free media than a regulated one.

perein said...

DW-
Thank you for the ongoing updates.

Navindran said...

Excellent work Defencewire. Not relying on rumors and relying on unverifaiable claims and sources.

Peter said...

"What is known for sure is that 17 dead Tiger bodies were recovered from Muhamalai and Kilali."

And you decided to hide them? Why not hand the bodies to ICRC like LTTE did with SLA bodies?

DefenceLK, the official Defence Ministry organ, states that only 6 LTTE bodies were recovered.

I can understand number of captured being kept in the darkness, but what is it that you do with dead bodies? I am rather baffled.

Srilankan said...

side effect,
i have a better idea than hanging them.Why dont people stop buying the papers.I take it that these guys have to sell papers to live right and you cant live on mewspapers on the internet.so why dont we stop buying them.

CodeRed said...

Sun Tzu's disciple,

“Also I cant understand why only 12 helmets left behind while 50 guns etc were captured? Does it mean the dead were mostly bandanna guys(ie Special Forces/Commandos etc?).”

It doesn’t means that only 12 regular infantry men got killed and all the others were Commandos or SF. Ok they are wearing Bandanas, but only for the camera. I don’t think anyone stupid enough to go to the war front without a regular helmet. The most casualty figures were reported by the 53rd Division, which has no special ops guys attached to that Division. It may be the cause for the disorganized attack they have launched.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

peter,
"I can understand number of captured being kept in the darkness, but what is it that you do with dead bodies?"
Point noted.To continue, why does the LTTE not take SLA prisoners?I can understand why no ltte POWs--they dont surrender.Is it due to the lack of logistics needed for housing, guarding and feeding POWs or is it to drive fear into SLDF hearts? I understand the SLN prisoners are still not exchanged.

Codered,
"It doesn’t means that only 12 regular infantry men got killed "
Fine. But it still does not explain the discrepancy.At least 28 helmets should have been left since 28 bodies recovered.

IntelAttack said...

Dear All LTTE Fans,

Poor leadership and tactics of operation on 23rd confrontation made LTTE to do the same thing again and kill a heavier no of soldiers in one day. Why and how it happened will be taken seriously by SLA and as a result the people who're responsible for the incident will be accountable and pay the price for what happened.

What LTTE fans cannot understand is that, this incident happened NOT because of LTTE's Superiority, but because of SLA commander’s POOR operation planning on 23rd. This does not mean that all SLA operations are alike. It's been proven on other fronts like Mannar. Ex: Madu Church.

Generally, when one party continuously beaten by an opposition, even one bad incident is enough for them to hail and shout! This is what LTTE is doing now and this is so much similar to what Hillary Clinton suggested to do after Pennsylvania win. She said "It's the Time to Turn the Tide!"!

So there's a Tide, which is going the wrong way fans. Just like Clinton, LTTE thinks to turn the SLA advances back by taking one incident for their support with their foolish media propaganda. Very sorry my friends! There's no turning back!

The only way to stop the tide is to Wave the White Flag and let SLA to liberate Vanni. So Easy! No casualties! No worries!

Just keep your fingers crossed! SLA's next stop is not so far from Vanni heartland!

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

IA
"What LTTE fans cannot understand is that, this incident happened NOT because of LTTE's Superiority, but because of SLA commander’s POOR operation planning on 23rd"

Similarly you are deluding yourself.If 1 guy beats 20 guys who attacked at the same time, having the same physique and training, would you accept that single guy to be a superior fighter or not?? 20 guys should be able to beat 1 single guy, even if he is mike tyson.SLA has 20:1 numerical superiority over LTTE and also in almost all other aspects.Accept this plain fact, dissect LTTEs strenghts & SLDF weaknesses & vice versa ,and come to a solution.
Deluding oneself is not going to help.Ask the Arabs.

Navindran said...

Sri Lankan, not all people in Sri Lanka own a computer. If they did there will not be a war now. Hence like defencewire, you can start an online blog or newspaper and try to publish the facts. All article carries a bias. How netural one can be is important.

Alot of people come to this blog to debate what defence.lk or tamilnet says. Take those articles with a pinch of salt. Whats more important is to dicuss the issues at hand.

Stop the war in Sri-Lanka said...

http://stopwarinsrilanka.blogspot.com/

Navindran said...

IntelAttack, first of all do not care about what "LTTE Fans" thinks. Most of these guys might be Pro LTTE but how many are supporting th cause by giving money or actually doing something contributing to the war. The actual armed forces and LTTE people have no time for blogs like this.

As far as the 23rd goes, hope is that people will be accountable. Unfortunately in Sri Lanka its a big hope else the same mistake will not be made twice.

As Far as weak leadership its not the case. Even good teams can lose to their opponents. It does not mean they are led purely by a bad captain. Capturing Madhu may not be due to a weaker LTTE in Mannar than in Muhumalai.

Given credit to the LTTE where they are due. Thelepan has proved again why he is the commander of the Northen Region. He has sucessfully executed a defence strategy.

My guess is the LTTE will have captured one armoured vehicle at least. The rest which are damaged in their posseion will be canabilaised for their other vehicles. They do the same for the Dovora crafts.

Navindran said...

Rice has hit US$1 a kg for premium grade. The goverment must take control of the rice distribution in Sri Lanka. War or no war people should not die from hunger. If need be, the army or STF should guard and distribute the rice.

IntelAttack said...

Good to see a comment from STd. Anyway I was addressing LTTE fans. lol!

We are not here to accept your plain facts which comes free but to think wisely and act accordingly! Appreciate the suggestion but No! Thank you!

First of all, there are some basic changes/improvements that should be done to your thinking patterns.

"If 1 guy beats 20 guys who attacked at the same time, having the same physique and training, would you accept that single guy to be a superior fighter or not??"

Your 1 guy = LTTE
Your 20 Guys = SLDF

What kind of bullshit comparison is that? You think this kind of comparison makes sense? Do you think everything can be compared like this?
Holy shit! You've been crewed man! VP has screwed all of you!

Numerical superiority has nothing to do with the incident on 23rd. It was totally on the person who did the planning and countermeasures taken.

We understand your attempt to point out that "Even SLA outnumber LTTE, LTTE kills more than SLA! So LTTE is unbeatable! Because of that SLA can't win this war! So STOP THE WAR!" and let LTTE to do whatever they like to do!
This is true with all guerilla org. Any army in any country outnumbers any terrorist group. That's because in this fine world, Majority of people are not mentally ill.

What book has those rules called "Practical Numerical Superiority: 20 Soldiers should beat 1 Terrorist" AND "Numerical Superiority is true! Terrorist should be given power to rule!" LOL!

You are SCREWED MAN! Totally Screwed! I suggest you to read the book "the way to do comparisons!" and "Difference between conventional warfare and counter-terrorism"

asithrimodaya said...

Sri Lanka lost 185 soldiers in Jaffna battle: military sources

COLOMBO (AFP) At least 165 government soldiers were killed and 20 more went missing in a major battle against Tamil rebels this week, military sources told AFP on Friday.

The figures were far higher than official defence ministry casualties which gave 43 soldiers dead and 33 missing from Wednesday`s fighting in the north.

`Some of the senior officers have been told that the army lost 185, including 20 who are still listed as missing,` said a military source who declined to be named. `We are trying to establish the fate of the missing.`

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on Thursday returned the bodies of 28 soldiers they had captured.

The government also reported killing more than 100 rebels in the pre-dawn offensive along the Muhamalai front lines on the northern Jaffna peninsula.

However, the separatists, who have been fighting for a Tamil homeland since 1972, said they lost only 25 combatants.

Official defence ministry casualty tolls and LTTE figures can seldom be verified because the government prevents journalists from visiting war zones and territory held by the rebels.

Wednesday`s confrontation was the bloodiest in recent years and the biggest battle since the military withdrew from a Norwegian-arranged truce in January this year.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

IA,

Maybe you should try to explain more lucidly rather than launching into a meandering,abuse-filled,undecipherable rant:))

The 1:20 example is purely for illustration--not to be taken literally. If you flesh it out, it goes waaay beyond numbers. E.g. SLDFs numbers/divisions/Armaments/logistics/economic base/population base/International arms supply lines/International monetary lifelines/International defense trainers/International mercenaries/Total air control/safe rear areas forR&R etc etc etc.
In these fields the SLDF is at a massive advantage over LTTE.

Both the fighting tactics(short term)& strategy(long term) of LTTE must be SUPERIOR to SLDF for such a massively inferior force to last 25 years of near continuous warfare ,intact.And no, the ltte is NOT fighting a guerilla war in Wanni, it is slugging toe-to-toe in well demarcated frontlines from fixed positions against a force larger than Australian or British military, armed with Fighter jets/MBRLs/Warships/Attack choppers/Tanks/Artillery and the like.
So no point deluding yourself.Innuendos wont work either to convince other parties.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

This is an interesting piece of analysis by B Raman on the present Muhamalai fight:

http://ramansterrorismanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/over-confident-sl-army-again-walks-into.html

LKDOOD said...



dailymirror:

Claymore mine found in Woelfendhal Street

A powerful claymore mine reportedly weighing 10kg found near the Old Dutch Church in Woelfendhal Street was defused by the Police Special Task Force Bomb Disposal Unit now.

Srilankan said...

Navindran,
Many thanks for your kind comment.I agree with what you said but ..i cant put into words what i want to say..fx..about the british press.did you notice for how long they ran this story of russian agents killing ex-KGB operatives in the U.K or what tone they take when reporting british casualties in iraq/afganistan..according to my friends...Some of these reporters in SLanka have something "missing".
DefenceWire,
As per Navindran's comments how many APCS/tanks have been destroyed/damaged and in ltte areas as a result of the 23rd.

LKDOOD said...



Military spokesman announces capture of Madhu shrine

pictures:

pic 1

pic 2

LKDOOD said...



defence.lk

military sources on the Vavuniya battlefront said that advancing troops are presently securing the Palampiddi area, around 8 km North of Madhu area. Heavy clashes have been reported from the area as troops are on the track of the terrorists, the sources further said.

Oh.. 8 KM !

DW any info ?

Srilankan said...

sun tzu,
very interesting article by raman.
The way i see it if the army sustained a kill ratio of at least 2:1..then that is OK since we can replenish our forces much sooner than the LTTE.According to raman the army is not in madu as yet?..because according to him all this info they are printing is crap?

LKDOOD said...



Explosion in Piliyandala

:(

IntelAttack said...

Dear Sun Tzu's disciple,

"Maybe you should try to explain more lucidly rather than launching into a meandering,abuse-filled,undecipherable rant:))"

I have explained you well and I think it's enough for a man with a little brain.
Anyway, since you think that this is a keyboard + historical events + statistics + a number game AND putting a lot of words would help you to omit sound arguments, I think you are screwed twice!

"The 1:20 example is purely for illustration--not to be taken literally."
Good! And you know what? Hadn’t I objected to your comment above, you would've easily fabricate a wrong picture. Thanks again for letting us know. I have explained that earlier. It wasn't the thing for last major operations and you were just trying to hide it by this incident on 23rd.
Game over man! Never play it again! Forget all past endeavors.. Prepare to Face continuous defeats + famous tactical withdrawals like Madu Church.

"If you flesh it out, it goes waaay beyond numbers. "
Yes true! SLDFs is far more superior than LTTE terrorists. No doubt about that! Thanks for hammering it out again.

"E.g. SLDFs numbers/divisions/Armaments/logistics/economic base/population base/International arms supply lines/International monetary lifelines/International defense trainers/International mercenaries/Total air control/safe rear areas forR&R etc etc etc.
In these fields the SLDF is at a massive advantage over LTTE."
Yes they are!!! OMG!!!! Have any LTTE fan say something like this ever? Thank you for putting it in nice words again my dearest FAN.

"Both the fighting tactics(short term)& strategy(long term) of LTTE must be SUPERIOR to SLDF for such a massively inferior force to last 25 years of near continuous warfare ,intact."

We'd say the war lasted 25 years because of many things but not for 1 single reason. A person who knows SL history understands why this lasted so many years. It's sad that you were born in 2004 and accidently found this blog to post comments.

In the early stages firing Racism for political gain helped to kick off this problem. Later Bad decision making by leaders caused LTTE to strengthen their org.

Any organization that;
- Raises fund worldwide (one of the richest terror org)
- Does International Smuggling
- Have people (helpers for race's sake) in neighbor country
- Have suicide bombers

Can threaten not only a country, But also the whole World! It is a global problem. So your "inferior force theory" falls back without a trace.

LTTE propaganda is famous for pointing outcomes and claiming different things to picture them in 100s of wrong ways to win what they need! We are not surprised man, you are just one tiny supporter of them.

"And no, the ltte is NOT fighting a guerilla war in Wanni, it is slugging toe-to-toe in well demarcated frontlines from fixed positions against a force larger than Australian or British military, armed with Fighter jets/MBRLs/Warships/Attack choppers/Tanks/Artillery and the like."

Ahh Yes. With all your views and statistics It's not a guerilla war. True.

Be it the great army of China or US marine forces, NO IDIOT PUTS ALL HIS SOLDIRS IN FRONT LINE AND ATTACK, BECUASE HE HAS MORE MEN TO SPARE. That was war in Stone Age. I'm so sad that I had to explain all this to you by myself while you are calling yourself Sun Tzu's disciple.

In old conventional warfare, winning war was just as easy as getting a headcount and attack. How many cadres LTTE has? 10000? Ok! How many Soldiers does SLA has? 200k? Holy crap this is so easy! Put 100K and Crush them all. Piece of Cake!

No man! Not now! In modern warfare, 1 man's life is much more important than anything else. (Not terrorist groups who blows humans as bombs).

We know that LTTE can be crushed in 2 days. Cut all supply routes! Attack from air for 1 day continuously. Maybe carpet bombing! in the 2nd day Advance and liberate vanni like going Sunday shopping!

But it is not how to counter terrorism! Terrorists are mixed with innocent unfortunate people. Armies have to be 100 accurate in wiping out LTTE.

So all your childish + one-way mirrored + expired and coward facts are WRONG! Be honest! That’s the only way to be a MAN.

I won’t explain you more on this as You know this better than me! LOL!

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

IA,

You are interested in a pissing contest while I am interested in sound military debate.
let the members decide for themselves what they think of our posts.

Defencewire said...

the 53 Div no longer has SF and CR troops. In the blistering hear, some remove their helmets and wear bandanas and pour water on it to keep cool.

We reported it first, but others irresponsible behaviour, very much like the guys who led the 23rd attack; no info of their own, no effort resulting in serious damage and spreading of misinformation.

We don't need Raman's analysis. Most of what he says is already written about locally and even in this blog (kill 10-a-day theory).

LKDOOD said...

on radio a man said the bus had some people inside it :(

casualties are being sent to hospital

LKDOOD said...

some people have died- radio

LKDOOD said...

30 injured - radio

LKDOOD said...



defence.lk

16 killed and over 40 wounded

LKDOOD said...



everybody look at this AFP report by by Amal Jayasinghe

Sri Lanka lost 185 soldiers in Jaffna battle: military sources

LKDOOD said...

i wonder who these 'military sources'
are ???

LKDOOD said...

60 injured at kalubowila Hos.

20 serious injuries

LKDOOD said...

defence.lk

23 killed and over 70 wounded

Upul said...

AFP reports 185 soldiers killed plus another 20 more missing.

DWs numbers seem hollow now considering the reputable afp reports say otherwise.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080425/wl_sthasia_afp/srilankaunrest_080425110233

defenceAnalyst said...

Upul,
Compared to AFP estimates, even LTTE's figures seem hollow.

Saman said...

"DWs numbers seem hollow now considering the reputable afp reports say otherwise."

Ha.. ha Afp report by Amal Jayasinghe. I rest my case.

For some reason Velu is mad.
If they kiked the hell out of SLDF and made themselves a hero a day before yesterday, why kill some civilien and become zero today.
I think LTTE-ers got rosted in large number too. They are hiding behiend the SLDF casuality figures to hide theirs.

commando said...

intelattack,

THE BEST COMMENT FOR ME EVER IN THIS BLOG which you gave to ltte fans.

MOST OF US SHOULD PASTE IT IN OUR DESKTOPS AND READ EVERYDAY.

THIS IS THE KIND OF ATTITUDE WHAT WE LACK!

SL said...

Defensewire, 116 were killed from SL Army, and only 17 terrorists bodies have been recovered? any chance there was more ? otherwise, this was a huge mistake as far as logistics/strategy is concerned.

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