Thursday, June 26, 2008

Prabha gets personally involved


Military Intelligence has observed a higher level of involvement of LTTE Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran in organising LTTE defensive and offensive formations in recent times. Analysts accredit this to two factors, the first being the importance of this war to the organizations survival and the second being a dearth of experienced cadres.

The same degree of urgency and determination is not being demonstrated by some quarters of the Army. Although Lt. Gen. Fonseka has a good plan and ample confidence in his own ability, appointment of certain stooges into crucial positions may prove futile at the end.

COs of a battalion have demonstrated more courage and determination than some of the present-day Brigade Commanders in the Army. Some of them are reluctant to take risks or formulate bold plans. COs, who have command over only one battalion have taken the initiative over some Brigade Commanders despite the latter having command over three battalions.

The region hardest hit by the dearth of leadership is Weli Oya and the 59 Division. The stand-by or battle-preparedness of certain Brigade Commanders is very low, which is starting to slow the pace down in this crucial area. What happens in Weli Oya is directly connected to the East and what happens in the East is directly connected to the South.

The area the 59 is concentrating on is much more crucial than the areas of operations of the 57, 58 and Task Force 2 (58 is Task Force 1. Task Force 2 is operating east of the A-9). A Task Force is smaller than a Division, with around 3000 troops. A Division in the Sri Lanka Army has around 7000 troops). The terrain, the defence-in-depth and the strategic importance of Weli Oya cannot be easily ignored.

Another issue plaguing the Military in this area is a lack of understanding between the Sri Lanka Army and the Sri Lanka Navy. Alampil and Kililai Lagoon are important strong-points of the LTTE Sea Tigers and any attempt to capture these areas must be done from both land, air and, of course, the sea.

54 comments:

LKDOOD said...

very interesting

DW

thanks for the updates

Air said...

we have the same idea on the lagoon(we thought it was a lake). it has to be a 3way (ground air and sea) assault on that area, may be amphibious landing behind the enemy lines while attacking heavily from the front. but need some kind of ground information(help from the locals if possible if not needs super clear areal recon missions to pick a area) where the amphibious troop will get a upper hand. Opening up another flank will boost the moral of all the other fighting units and it will give the enemy a heart ache to control since they are confined to smaller area. the way its going on right now SL troops has a upper hand, one more thing never under estimate the enemy or never take the off the concentration thats where they can hit hard.
Brother 2 Brother

su said...

This seems to explain some reasons for the lower pace of SLDF movements in the Welioya front...
:(

Bhairav said...

[What happens in Weli Oya is directly connected to the East and what happens in the East is directly connected to the South.]

DW,

Can you elaborate further on above statements?

Bhairav said...

[What happens in Weli Oya is directly connected to the East and what happens in the East is directly connected to the South.]

Su Madam..at least you can explain it to this village boy.

sldf said...

Defencewire,

You have highlighted some interesting points with regard to the Weli Oya front and 59 Division leadership. Slow pace can be easily attributed to fierce LTTE resistance as well 59 division’s lack of dynamic and bold commanders to launch offensive strikes against LTTE. Are you trying to say that Brig. Nanda Uduwatte is showing poor leadership qualities?

Million dollar question is: Is the Army high command including the Army commander is aware of these short comings and lack bold commanders? And what measures the Army has taken to address these short coming?

Apart from the national front LTTE have largest concentration of cadres and indirect fire is this sector (including their battle harden cadres from elite Imran Padian and Charles Anthony). LTTE can easily assemble few hundred cadres at short notice without much difficulty in this sector. If Army don't take the right precautions and place bold commanders in this sector LTTE counter attack will be inevitable given its importance to both the LTTE as well as the Army. It is quite possible that LTTE is trying to delay, rather than to prevent the Army advance to launch a massive counter attack against 59?

Have the army entered Andankulam jungles?

su said...

:)
Im not a Defence expert...
As I think, Welioya is the border which seperates the ltte in the vanni from the east..
As the troops march forward, the porous defence lines could result in Groups of ltte going in to the east to help those small groups already there to increase Terrorist activities...
East to south is not a Big deal...
but Dont Worry...Before the Monsoons Major Developments will occur in this front & that would Decide the fate of ltte..
Its up to them to show how crafty they are when their heads are in the Firing line...
Just my thoughts....

Castedeus said...

What happens in Weli Oya is indeed directly connected to the East from a security/military/strategic point of view... what happens in the east being directly linked to the south.... DW, isn't this more politically than anything else? Highest political stakes..

V interesting post... great work as always!

Bhairav said...

Thanks to Madam Su and Castedeus for clearing the clouds on the relative theory of Manalaaru front.

Moshe Dyan said...

great stuff DW.

agree with every sentence.

"The area the 59 is concentrating on is much more crucial than the areas of operations of the 57, 58 and Task Force 2 (58 is Task Force 1."

how true?

i've been harping on this for a very long time.

and the SLN involvement is also rightfully pointed out.

what we need is NOT a SLN to ST attack coupled with a SLA to LTTE attack at the same time. NO.

we need that of course. PLUS we need the SLN to destroy LTTE land targets near their strategic sea-land bases FROM THE SEA AND AIR (by the SLAF).

heavy land attack capabilties of the SLN is ESSENTIAL to do this.

any views?

TropicalStorm said...

There seems to be very little sea-tiger activity of any significant scale challenging the SLN over the past few weeks.

Given the changing Wanni deep battle space scenario, soon it would become imperative for the LTTE to clear a significant part of the coast line, probably around Mullaitivu, to give them an escape route and also compell resource re-allocation and force dilution on the SLA and Navy. That would require a determined attack against the SLN with the objective of crippling a significant number of fast interceptor craft.
Given this scenario, it would be reasonable to estimate an investment in large scale boat building and/or forcible acquisition of civillian boats to be rigged as suicide craft for a full scale attack against the Navy within a short time.

Deployment of Jetanthan brigade thugs to the East should directly or indirectly facilitate such an operation as well. In addition to being useful as an asset to carry out diversionary attacks, these terrorists could facilitate the transport and deployment of such an attack force.

It would thus benefit the govt to deploy the Pilliyan forces into countering the LTTE threat while also focussing on potential sea-tiger preparations. It is possible that boats would be manufactured deeper into defended territory, which disadvantage the LTTE only logistically, while providing the greater advantages of stealth and surprise.

SLN needs to evaluate a swarm attack scenario with not just tens of craft, but potentially hundreds, and instruct the FAC commanders on appropriate counter-measures asap. Dragging the enemy craft with limited range into deep sea to be engaged by superior fire power and close air support would be a strategy worth examining.

LKDOOD said...

LTTE rebels sourcing explosives from India

LINK

hemantha said...

Tropicalstorm,
Very good point. LTTE has to counter attack sooner than later. "Where would that be?" is the Billion Dollar question.

Priyanka said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Panhinda said...

Expect the concentration's of booby traps and mines to gradually become less as they are overwhelmed by ground and air offensives. I saw a large shipment of batteries for APMs apprehended in Vavunia. The momentum of the forward march should also gather pace. Keep them busy in Vanni forcing them keep their fingers off the East.

Key to defense of the East is realtime intelligence. We must have at least one informer from each village and hamlet. A network of informers reporting to a central intelligence gathering post which then analyses and dispatches rapid deployment forces if it is warranted.

Bhairav said...

What's the secret behind the current Wanni battles by SLDF - good insider defense report in Tamil

OneSpirit said...

Regarding the inactivity of the SLN and apparent lack of coordination, if the Joint Forces Command has been approved, GR should immediately place SF as Chairman JCS now rather than when his extension ends in December. Also, forcefully request the Admiral to retire, and appoint somebody who is a team player to head the SLN.

The future of our country should take priority over petty squabbling... Even if Karannagoda is justified, this war is bigger than one individual...

Danushka said...

for me the main reason for the slow pace in Welioya for 59th division is that it does not have a left flank division so far to lock up. now the 61th division have begun operations from the east of A9 , when it reach the same level as 59th, then you will notice good pace from 59th division. Remember pace is not the priority here.

Moshe Dyan said...

dhanushka,

east of A9 or west of A9?

army.lk says west of A9.

Moshe Dyan said...

one spirit,

based on limited available info., i agree with you.

Constantin Demiris said...

i thgouth thr great majority of resistance to welioys was by more of the elite units of ltte whereas mannar and vavuniya sent canonfodder to the front. each newspaper I read gives the same indication.

it is easy for each and everyone of us to sit and comment on each ones leadership etc, but in the end it is those field commanders who know whats best and whats not. say for example there may be some soldiers and even lieutenants who are willing to go out as human bombs. but as a professional army that is a BIG NO NO NO. That doesnt mean its poor leadership skills.

Danushka said...

Moshe Dyan,

Thanks for correcting.

My mistake , its Task Force 2 under Command of Brigadier Ralph Nugera

LKDOOD said...

Banu is killed ?

perein said...

lkdood-
Where did you get the possible Banu news?

LKDOOD said...

who is this LTTE leader ?

LINK

LKDOOD said...

Blogger perein said...

lkdood-
Where did you get the possible Banu news?

June 27, 2008 8:53 PM

from a person i know

he's not sure

LKDOOD said...

Anybody here know tamil ?

what does this article say ?

Link

LKDOOD said...

Sri Lankan military says it has killed 49 rebels

LINK

perein said...

lkdood-
I got some one to interpret the link you have provided.
That's just give general overview...

Shan said...

Perein

SF also talks of a top ltte leader injured or KIA
http://www.lankanewspapers.com/news/2008/6/29707_space.html

perein said...

Shan-
I read the SF's details earlier today.
But he does not mention any name either.

LKDOOD said...

Army captures ANDANKULAM Town * MAP *

LINK

LKDOOD said...

thanks perein

LKDOOD said...

Tamilnet:

SLA hands over 25 LTTE bodies to Vavuniyaa hospital

The LTTE is yet to release details of the battle.

Chiraddikku'lam is located 22 km east of Vidaththaltheevu and 12.3 km northwest of Moon'ru Mu'rippu, which is situated along the border of three districts, Mannaar, Mullaiththeevu and Vavuniyaa.

CASC said...

DW

Nice commentry. Keep up the good work !

ach82000 said...

who is the copycat? Same article is there on sinhala.net..

Malin said...

yes they have not even metioned defencewire as source..

bad of them

LKDOOD said...

Blogger ach82000 said...

who is the copycat? Same article is there on sinhala.net..

--

maybe DW also writes at sinhala.net

Shan said...

can anyone translate what's on
http://www.pathivu.com/?p=1478

Danushka said...

guys watch this.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=yAzEEL2DqZM

LKDOOD said...

Danushka

thanks for the video

LKDOOD said...

India, Sri Lanka set up a security group

LINK

Thoughtful Guy said...

can any one who speaks tamil plz translate http://www.pathivu.com/?p=1462 ???

kaatikuddupaan said...

Pathivu is saiying that the army's plan for the north is a secret plan. This article is by A.Vannian, London


Anyways I looked over the photos of dead tigers. It seems very strange that none of them show signs of severe injuries that may cause death say from arty strike or gun shots. Not much blood loss and pretty clean clothese.

Even their guns are in pretty good shape

Did the army manage to get them poisoned ?

I really doubt that an entire fighting team of CA would commit mass suicide by cyanide.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

" Did the army manage to get them poisoned ? "

Good observation.. While I have a distaste for conspiracy theories ,the capture of full-fledged chemical warfare masks in Jaffna islet recently from SLN gives rise to good questions. The only way so many LTTE can be killed en masse without any casualty to SLA is by concentrated indirect fire (like MBRLs, air-burst artillery etc) which is improbable given the state of the corpses and the prepared defenses of LTTE; or, if the LTTE had charged SLA bunkers, which it did not( and again no visible injuries).
Also the parties to this war are fully capable of breaking war conventions. On the other hand, if the LTTE had tried using gas, and the wind blew it back it can explain the same thing.

Tissa Hami said...

"Anyways I looked over the photos of dead tigers. It seems very strange that none of them show signs of severe injuries that may cause death say from arty strike or gun shots"

actually not..

these CA MF died by shitting !!

tangara said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tangara said...

DW and gurus,



Given the present strength of LTTE,
What will be the maximum number of cadres the LTTE can assemble for a single massive attack?


If that happens, Can the SLA active divisions like the 59
division has the resources to single handedly
counter it?

Shan said...

This conspiracy theory doesn't make sense, not realistic.

would the SLA handover proof to LTTE by handing over the bodies.

redblitz said...

"Given the present strength of LTTE,
What will be the maximum number of cadres the LTTE can assemble for a single massive attack?"

roflmao
No one has an accurate picture of LTTE manpower levels, barring the upper echelons of the LTTE's military science division and VP. This in itself would be at most 5 people.

If DW is correct in that the Jeyanthan brigade is being moved to the East then the LTTE must have sufficient manpower to rout the military in an Unceasing wave sometime in the future.

Rumour has it that the Charles Anthony and certain sections of the Imran Pandiyan brigades are undergoing special training for the future battle somewhere deep in the Vanni. All the cadres fighting on the LoC are either fresh recruits, or the less significant brigades.

All the hardcore vets are undergoing special training. What for you'll know a few months or years from now...

redblitz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
LKDOOD said...

Blogger tangara said...

DW and gurus,



Given the present strength of LTTE,
What will be the maximum number of cadres the LTTE can assemble for a single massive attack?

---

1000 to 2000 ?

Army, Air force must be ready for it

LKDOOD said...




Military spokesman says more to be cleared in Mannar

Military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara says that there are more areas to be cleared in Mannar from the LTTE, and it was only the strategic ‘Rice Bowl’ which was captured today.

dailymirror


LKDOOD said...

Tamilnet:

DPU attack

District Secretary (AGA) of Thu'nukkaay division of Mullaiththeevu district was killed in a Claymore attack

DPU Claymore explodes claiming the life of attacker

A Sri Lanka Army (SLA) soldier was killed while he was engaged in setting up a Claymore mine in Vannearikku'lam in Karaichchi division of Ki'linochchi, Sunday morning around 9:30

About Us

We are a Non-Political Group of Defence Experts Sharing Our Knowledge For the Good Of Our Country. This is a Voluntary Effort. We Report to No-one But You.

Contact US

You can contact us by e-mail on defencewire@gmail.com and on defence_wire@yahoo.com.

Disclaimer

DefenceWire or its editors are not responsible for the opinions expressed by the contributors to this website.