Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Another Eastern Insurgency?

LTTE is preparing for a long insurgency campaign in the Eastern Province again. Details of this plan have emerged with a recent speech given by the LTTE's 'Special Commander' to the East, Keerthi. Random sporadic attacks have also increased.

Keerthi, in his address had claimed they were waiting for an opportunity to launch a massive attack on military installations and targets of opportunity in the East. This threat comes in the wake of renegade LTTE fighter and present-day Chief Minister of the East, Pillayan alias Kubeiran and his followers have removed themselves from the war effort and are spending much of their time inside small camps in the interior of Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa or engaging in political campaigns.

Last Sunday, the Sri Lanka Army overran a landing point of the LTTE situated inside Pulmoddai Jungles and recovered a wide array of survival equipment, dry rations etc. Jungle paths from the landing point had led into the Somawathi Wildlife Sanctuary. From here Tigers would cross into Kumburupitiya/Kmburupiddi and cross the Trinco-Habarana/Habarana-Kantale road in small groups at night.

Military Intelligence claim that some Muslim woodcutters are engaged in a racket, particularly in Batticaloa, of transporting various goods to Tigers hiding inside the jungles of Paduwaankarai. The Sri Lanka Army, except for a few Military Intelligence units, has removed itself for the most part from the East. The Special Task Force and the Air Force are in control of much of Batticaloa and Ampara.

The Sri Lanka Navy handles security in the Trincomalee Town and Gravets area, but the Sri Lanka Air Force is in control of the vital Habarana-Trincomalee road. A key strong-point of the Tigers has been the village of Thampalakaamam/Thambalagamuwa, whose Tamils are still mainly pro-LTTE.

Tiger crossings from the Naval Headworks Sanctuary to Sittaru is allegedly facilitated by LTTE contacts at Thambalagamuwa. A few weeks ago, an LTTE Intelligence head called Palilan was shot dead in this area by MI.

Sources told this site that less than 30% of the villagers in Thambalagamuwa had participated in the recent election in the East. It is estimated that several hundred Jeyanthan Brigade cadres have arrived in the East in small batches, thanks to this network of jungles and safehouses.

26 comments:

LKDOOD said...

DW

thanks for the update

forces must be ready for anything anywhere

londonistan said...

STF/TMVP and Piliyan must be given a free hand to go in and sort this out before it turns into a bigger mess.

LKDOOD said...

Torture endemic in Sri Lanka police-rights group

LINK

Sam Perera said...

Defencewire,

"[COLOMBO, SinhalaNet 2008.06.25 04:01PM] According to messages exchanged among the leading LTTE leaders in Canada a Nordic country is planning to evacuate Prabhakran , his wife and top four aides from Mullativ in the coming weeks. Prabhakaran 's health conditions and lack of vital drugs in the rebel held areas have caused concern to the LTTE hierarchy as well to his Nordic friends. His evacuation will be handled by the Sea Tiger wing and the party is expected to board a vessel now in the Eastern coast of Sri Lanka. With Sri Lankan Army at his door step , Prabahkaran is seriously considering to seek refuge in another country and live,until he can stage a comeback.

LTTE decision makers prefer Prabhakran to live in Norway, But among the other countries considered suitable for the LTTE chief to live are Ireland, France and South Africa. However, the military wing of the LTTE has opposed Prabahkaran's plan to seek refuge in another country as they will be hauled before the Criminal Courts by India and Sri Lanka."

Is there any truth to this? I am not sure how Sea Tigers can attempt this in the presence of SLN and IN in this area? Wouldn't this be a great target for SLN and SLAF to take down if this really occurs. After all, if there is a ship in the easterrn seas, SLN should take it down right now. What is your take on this?

TropicalStorm said...

Sam

Any registered ship in international waters is free to do as they wish. The Norwegians have an advanced navy, including submarines which visit the indian ocean frequently. They would possess the technology to locate gaps in SLN cover to infliterate and extradite the group at very low risk of detection. Case in point; how Velu was taken to Norway in 2005, which saved his ass in the tsunami. And how did he get back?
SLN cannot attack any legitimate ships in the seas, even if we know what it is there for.
The only process left open after that would be to seek Interpol assistance and war crimes prosecution thru the International courts. Norway could easily refuse extradition for nations such as the US or SL on the grounds of death penalty. However, in the case of India, a nation that does not practice the death penalty, they've already got even Rajiv Gandhi's widow pleading for clemency for those who killed her husband. India would easily remain indignantly inactive.
There is a respite and gain for the SLG in such an outcome. The LTTE would disintegrate easily and with ourt forces' level of acquired competence, their remaining leadership could be cherry-picked. End game in two years, max. MR would be an unparalelled hero for the average voter.
Move over Bandaranaikes. The Rajapaksa's will own the land for ever.

Sam Perera said...

TS,

If Norway does this in such open manner, I believe that we should bring Norway to International Courts for harboring international terrorist leaders. In addition, we shoud severe all diplomatic ties with Norway. Given the facade of peace Norway tries to put forward, they will be in a real tough position to face the global public if it harbors the worst terrorist the world has ever seen. Lets see how this evolves.

ponder this said...

DW,

On one hand we are being told LTTE is cornered and losing cadres at a faster rate than even our inflation. if that is so,

1) where are they getting these cadres from to move into batticola?

2) if they have cadres, wouldn't they keep most, if not all, of them back to do the "last stand" in wanni (if we are to believe the posts here, this is not far away) instead of undertaking risky buildup inside the east?

3) given the infrared/night vision equipment the SL supposedly possesses, how hard is it to monitor the sea for these "landings"? why don't we catch them in the act?

4) Given that re-infiltration was a possibility when LTTE left east, what has the SL government done on a proactive basis to monitor and stop these? if it's too sensitiive to reveal, have such planning been done at all?

5) Isn't Jeyanthan one of LTTE's top/senior/battle tested "brigades"? If they are moving them out, does it mean they are giving up on Wanni or that they believe they can hold onto wanni without Jeyanthan?. what's going on?

Moshe Dyan said...

i'm with londonistan.

"STF/TMVP and Piliyan must be given a free hand to go in and sort this out before it turns into a bigger mess."

1. the battle has changed in the EAST from a more of conventional battle to a battle with infiltrators.

2. committing a large number of troops is wasteful and meaningless.

3. war against infiltrators is essentially an abduction, extra judicial killing, torture related one. otherwise it fails. the same should be at work in colombo, jaffna. however, in the east there is a BIG advantage. HR activities are comparatively less there.

4. at the same time key roads/paths/routes, villages, junctions and supply sources must be blocked for the LTTE and its supporters by regular military presence.

5. the need to up the killing rate is important more than ever. the "chase-away" strategy we followed in the east was OK. but NOW we should extinguish the LTTE of fighting cadre.

6. a muslim-LTTE tie up in the east is very much on the cards (if it hasn't happened already). this got to be reversed not by winning their sympathy or support (because money is ALWAYS a BIGGER motivator), but throught WHAT WORKED IN THE EAST.

7. in the long run more villages with MORE peace loving villagers (whatever race they belong to) MUST be created. this was the success of JCP's strategy in welioya (whatever his present political affiliations are he WAS (HIGHLIGHTED) GREAT although now he has fallen to the level of ranjan ramanayake). that took away MANY HEADACHES for the SLA. if not for welioya SLA could not have advanced towards the mulaitivu direction so easily (comparatively). the settlements in this region actually EXTENDED the SUSTAINED SLA THRUST/PERMANANT PRESENCE.

Moshe Dyan said...

ponder this,

my two cents pending a proper answer from DW.

1. they use a VERY SMALL number of cadres which they can afford. batticaloa area (not the whole district) was THE MAJOR source of 'cheap' cadres for the LTTE. they want it back (plus other reasons). so tigers consider this an 'investment'.

2. a above answers this.

3. they intermingle with fishermen and as you know the EAST has the longest coastline. it is VERY difficult to monitor the FULL STRETCH. HOWEVER, you got a point. i have not come across news that "SLDFs captured ONE boat carrying tigers/weapons" while landing or moving in the lagoon, etc.

4. they have certainly done some. BUT there was a HUGE requirement to put the east under civil administration ASAP. this political process required certain de-militarisation exercises. also there was no need for conventional op.s. however new security systems are required in the east.

5. answered in 1 above.

Moshe Dyan said...

ponder this,

my two cents pending a proper answer from DW.

1. they use a VERY SMALL number of cadres which they can afford. batticaloa area (not the whole district) was THE MAJOR source of 'cheap' cadres for the LTTE. they want it back (plus other reasons). so tigers consider this an 'investment'.

2. a above answers this.

3. they intermingle with fishermen and as you know the EAST has the longest coastline. it is VERY difficult to monitor the FULL STRETCH. HOWEVER, you got a point. i have not come across news that "SLDFs captured ONE boat carrying tigers/weapons" while landing or moving in the lagoon, etc.

4. they have certainly done some. BUT there was a HUGE requirement to put the east under civil administration ASAP. this political process required certain de-militarisation exercises. also there was no need for conventional op.s. however new security systems are required in the east.

5. answered in 1 above.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Ponder this,

my 2 cents...

1.LTTE are preparing to disband in Wanni in near future, so, like Thoppigala they are cutting losses and relocating to East local cadres in preparation for a longterm guerilla war rather than fight and get liquidated (while northern cadres would do same in Wanni after disbandment).
or,

2.LTTE feels confident it can manage the SLA in Wanni with present resources ,therefore they relocated local cadres to East to create attacks on small bases there in near future. This would be great propaganda --it would appear stronger in front of diaspora Tamils & IC while MR and SF would lose some confidence among Sinhalese.This in turn would compel them to either relocate SLDF into East & weaken Wanni offensive, or, crank-up the dirty war( like Moshe suggests)which may have repercussions like GSP+ etc.

Moshe Dyan said...

fearing about GSP+ and compromising security is, to say the least, unintelligent.

SL is likely to lose GSP+ one day for various reasons, especially if an anti-trade union party like the UNP comes to power (which is very likely) and crippling strikes are carried out by the likes of the JVP (which is even more likely) and the govt. takes action as they habitualy take to stop these strikers (else suffer total crippling of the economy).

remember early 2004 leading up to the general election? almost everything was on strike and the govt. got so unpopular as it couldn't take 'necessary' action. but in 2003 they took such action against MANY striking troublemakers registering the first death of a worker on strike after 1994 when 2 ansel workers were killed. this type of a thing now will lose GSP+ for SL (else suffer at the hands of TUs)

also the likes of MR (when he was in the opposition) will be aplenty ESPECIALLY in the JVP/SLFP than the UNP. this can lead to impossible situations in future when a not-so-TU-friendly party comes to power.

post-election HR violations which are habitually HIGHER when the UNP wins elections can also attract attention in the detailed list of conventions in the GSP+ conditions after 2006.

the loss of GSP+ will disadvantage SL exports to the EU. BUT that will not be the end. productivity improvements, exchange rate mgt., certain trade arrangements (value addition arrangements) that can reduce duty/tarrifs, production subsidies, etc. can still sustain exports to the EU at competitive prices.

on the other hand SL cannot beat china, etc. for too long with the help of GSP+ alone.

in the long run the north-east has more resources that are far more economically valuable than SL exports to the EU!!! and as SL embraces capitalism (which is the ONLY way out) our slavery industries including low-value-added garments must disappear.

what is needed in the short term is a compromise so that long term benefits are not destroyed.

NOLTTE=Peace said...

If this happen to Tamil girl, Peelamist would go on HR rampage playing discrimination card,

http://www.lakbima.lk/editor.htm

Bhairav said...

Guys..if you see the Sam Perera, please pass this message that he should hurry up his application for alien work status with Tamil Eelam Homeland security in order to avoid the possible backlog due to the huge demand from the Sinhalese skilled workers.

Sam Perera said...

Thanks for your genuine concern. Matter of fact, I sent my applications several times to Tamiz Eezam last week also in ultrafast supersonic mail via SLAF. Your one legged cousin Chezvam already acknowledged it from the hell. It is good that there is a huge demand from Sinhala skilled workers for this kind of jobs. We will keep sending applications over and over. Send me your GPS coordinates ASAP for a special home delivery of my application via SLAF.

ponder this said...

thanks guys for your replies..
in regards to LTTE disbanding from wanni:

Although if they are pushed against the wall, strategically and miiltarily the best option for LTTE would be to disband the "conventional" military side and start a "guerrila" type war, the people who have to make this decision, ie: the upper echelon of LTTE, have to be really unselfish and REALLY thinking long-term to arrive at this decision:

1) If they do it, then that would mean their chance of death is much higher (just look back to the guerrila days of LTTE and the death rates of its leadership). You just can't guarantee who will live tomorrow in guerilla warfare. Granted that DPU/Air attack have caused LTTE leadership considerable headaches, these guys being average human beings (with instincts to preserve their life over anything) would balk at the idea of disbanding and putting themselves that much closer to death (not to mention giving the luxury of living in Wanni jungles with family to that of living on the run)


2) They have also amassed huge arsenal of heavy weapons which are hard to hide for long in guerilla warfar or for that matter useful. LTTE is not likely to give up all that by disbanding.

3) Given what has happened in the East (virtually no existense of LTTE), by disbanding into guerllia force LTTE faces the very possibility of becoming nobody in Sri Lanka or just another failed militant group.

4) Coupled with all that. If Sinhala Politicians are any smart, not opportunistic to punish the Tamils for LTTE's failure, and present a credible political package now or in the near future, The tamil population, which is probably tired from the decades of war and seeing a less lethal LTTE in guerilla form, may completely abandon them (And for those who argue, only a few tamil people support LTTE - it's just hard to imagine where they are with just few people's support). Going with the history of SL and given a weak LTTE, the chances of this happening are not certain.

So given all that the LTTE would never disband itself this time regardless of how logical it might seem "militarily".

So we are in for a show down by all indications. And that's why it's surprising that the LTTE is moving jeyanthan brigade to East. This just means they are confident of holding Wanni for the near future. To do small scale bombs, assasinations, etc in East, the LTTE does not need one of its best conventional battle hardened brigade. They can just use run of the mill regular terrorists.

Pundey Eelam said...

Well said Sam, Well said. :D

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

sam(and bhairav),

That was black humor, but definitely very well crafted and funny reply. If posters must engage in rhetorical duels this is the way to go and not namecalling or competition in naming carnal experiences.

Ponder this...
lets wait and watch.After a few months we wont need to ponder anymore as the war will go one way or the other.

orange said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NOLTTE=Peace said...

Sam Perera,

Love your reply...

"Thanks for your genuine concern. Matter of fact, I sent my applications several times to Tamiz Eezam last week also in ultrafast supersonic mail via SLAF....."

:-))

Defencewire said...

ponder this et al,

There's a familiar pattern of attack in the rear that LTTE relies on whenever it is pressed in the Vanni. It does not need a thousand cadres for this. it needs enough to hide and enough to face a fight if they are cornered. By doing this, the Tigers are exposing a reality that is the issue of policing captured territory. With a disturbing presence in the East, Tigers will make the government commit troops. This has happened before and will happen again. Once troops are deployed in a defensive role, the offensive mentality of the army will be affected. Let's hope that our commanders who have seen this time and time again, will challenge the hiding tigers just enough with auxiliary forces (Civil Defence Force and Karuna)so that the tigers are in constant check and there is no burden on the Army. The key however, is in politics and development. The 'hearts and minds' approach, but a more sincere one.

Bhairav said...

[We will keep sending applications over and over. Send me your GPS coordinates ASAP for a special home delivery of my application via SLAF.]

Sam,

99.99% of your applications are simply going to our garbage bins due to the skill-sets which you have do not suit our requirements. Since we have two third of current SLankan sea resources, you have good chance of working in our fisheries in near future given that your skill-sets are only good for our basic fisheries reqs. Our hiring practice is one of the best in the industry, which prevents anyone from getting special treatment, so you have to go through the standard procedure for your application process, no hiring manager's contact info..sorry!

Pundey Eelam said...

- Interesting Link -

http://www.eelanaasam.com/FUNNY_CARTOONS_HTML.html

Senthan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sam Perera said...

Bhairav,

"99.99% of your applications are simply going to our garbage bins due to the skill-sets which you have do not suit our requirements."

Of course, we don't have the skill sets of terrorists, mass killers, child terrorists and pathelogical liars. Regardless, we will keep sending more and more applications for your review. Next time just look up before you get out of the bunker for any incoming applications. We will be very persistant in sending applications.

bodhi_dhana said...

Thank you DW for using Sinhlala place names as well as the tamil forms (e.g., Kamburupitiya, Tambalagamuva). There are a other, less well known place names for which the original sinhlala names are given at the sites:

http://geocities.com/place.names

http://dh-web.org/place.names/

So we see that:

Paduwaankari PADDANKARA
Sittaruai HIK-IVURA
Kantale GANTALE
Pulmoddai PUHULMOTTE
Nayaru NAA-YAARA
Alampil VAELLAMPILA

About Us

We are a Non-Political Group of Defence Experts Sharing Our Knowledge For the Good Of Our Country. This is a Voluntary Effort. We Report to No-one But You.

Contact US

You can contact us by e-mail on defencewire@gmail.com and on defence_wire@yahoo.com.

Disclaimer

DefenceWire or its editors are not responsible for the opinions expressed by the contributors to this website.