Monday, August 18, 2008

Signs of the 'Last Battle'?

The LTTE is showing signs of defending Kilinochchi. Several units deployed in Jaffna and Weli Oya have been recalled to an unknown location in Kilinochchi. Sources speaking to this site confirmed that the objective maybe to launch a cease-less-wave-type attack on the 57 Division.

The Tigers, in their last attempt, realized that forcing the Army into a temporary withdrawal is insufficient. Out of the many Divisions attacking it from all directions, the 57 is the most lethal as it is aiming at the Tiger's heart.

According to the latest information pieced together, small units have been recalled to Kilinochchi, including mortar units from Weli Oya, which is significant. Contrary to expectations, LTTE has not abandoned its fight in Tunukkai and Mallavi, although the former is virtually surrounded.

It is estimated that the Tigers are cable of organizing around 500 hardcore cadres for a fight at this point in time. Strategically however, they must perform a herculean task of launching one or a series of attacks capable of completely upsetting the Army's strategy, tactics, morale and leadership. There will be no half measures.

In doing so, LTTE too must face the risk of losing a good many of its hardcore fighters in the attack. The Army sees this as an opportunity to get at hardcore LTTE fighters while losing only regular troops and not the Special Forces like in some previous Ceaseless Waves once being called in at the eleventh hour.

If an attack of this magnitude is executed, the LTTE must ensure that it reaches the rear of the 57 Division and then box-in the troops. This was formally an LTTE tactic now being used predominantly by the Army. The last such attack was beaten back by heavy artillery and MBRL fire.

97 comments:

thambala said...

Is this going to coincide with the PC Elections???

We must be ready for a war footing!

thambala said...

We mustn't let tigers make all the surprises.

We need to have some surprises ready for the bloody barbarians.

thambala said...

Maybe lets not play to their time table. Let's not wait till they attack if we have good intel. May be lightning struck attack and slide away should be the order of the day

Ares said...

mr. dwire,

The Army sees this as an opportunity to get at hardcore LTTE fighters while sacrificing only regular troops.

i think you should change the wording of this part your post. i understand what you mean but sacrifice is probably not the word to use. regulars aren't cannon folders. i dont think our army uses regulars as cannon folders either. we should not forget that the regulars that have achieved most of the victories. all previous operations like jayasikuru for example were spearheaded by elite troops from special forces and commando regiments. now of course we use them in a more efficient manner, for special operations and intel gathering (which is a valiant task too). i'm not taking any thing away from them but regulars shouldn't be sacrificed to protect the elites. in fact most armies would scarifies a elite unit to save regulars trapped.

Sam Perera said...

If it is the case verified by MI from several sources, may be we should go for a harder push in the Welioya side along with a possible push from the Killali. We need to expolit every possible weakness of LTTE while taking adequate counter measures in the Mannar front. Just like they did in the past, SF, Commandos, and SLAF can neutralize these special units even before they are deployed against 57,58,and TF II. The other option is to intensify the work of TF II so that LTTE will have to spread their carde even more. I hope that General Fonseka has a good plan for this.

LKDOOD said...

DW

thanks for the update

fighting was expected to get heavy as army enters LTTE HQ

LKDOOD said...

Air force must be on 100% alert

with air force, MBRL, artillery LTTE
will get a heavy beating

Lankapura said...

Worst case the withdrawals could be for a chemical weapons attack.. hope our forces are prepared for that.

perein said...

DW-
Thank you for another useful news item. Please keep those coming regular basis.
BTW, "Ares" is spot on about his comment.
I'm sure what you are trying say is, use of regular forces could get the hardcore LTTE.
Please try to correct that when possible.

perein said...

Lankapura-
It would be difficult any one to get ready fully towards WMD.
Not to forget WMD will bring the end to LTTE as well as the normal civilians.

phaedrus said...

Is it a wise move by LTTE to attack the 57? Because even if they break through and get behind the lines of 57th to cause some damage, there is still the 61. So they will be sandwiched between 57 and 61 in government controlled territory where the army can be reinforced easily in a short time.

LTTE might be more concerned by the 58, because if they proceed till Pooneryn, it will provide a path way for the troops in Jaffna to come down to attach Kilinochchi directly. It will be a huge advantage to our army as well, as only the troops necessary for the defence of Jaffna needs to be stationed there.

Anyway, an important point is, the LTTE is also guessing what the army's next movement will be, while we are trying to guess theirs. So the army can influence where the next attach will happen. Adding another offensive division to where 58 is now to march directly to Kilinochchi or TF2 marching till Mankulam for instance might cause them to panic and drop all the other plans.

So if our army can give the right (false) impression, we might be able to get them to attach where the army is strongest or where they can be boxed in and eliminated.

Frankly, going by the way they have fought for the last 2 years, I would doubt whether even now they have finalized where the actual attach is going to take place. Seems like they are just running around trying to put out the fire where the flames are burning brightest.

perein said...

DW-
Are those Vanni info providers for us in full alert to communicate those mass movements of LTTE towards front lines?
What sort of civilian numbers do we think live in this part of Killi?

lankaputhra said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
lankaputhra said...

DW thanks for update...but...
I agree with Ares …what so special about hardcore LTTE fighters…main thing is they are willing to die ..i think our forces are well trained and experienced now to face any attack from LTTE ..in the past it was totally different scenario which was poorly managed and instructed whereas now forces are guided with strategic objectives. I believe that even though they are regular forces they will be definitely able to face the so called LTTE hardcode fighter.. yes due to the fact that the nature of war in this stage could result many deaths… it will be for both sides in coming months…but all will depend on how SLF execute their method to beat the terrorist ..I truly believe that there wont be any repetition of Jaysikuru (due to the fact that new methods & hard wear SLF have)…finally I will all our forces good luck and may the triple gem bless them all to protect our nation from barbaric terrorists.

mboi said...

cant the air force drop some bombs on wherever these 'units' r sleeping?

lankanews said...

The Devil You Know (from strategypage)

MoratuSaman said...

1st of all Thanks DefenceWire for fabulous news.

SLA should go slow, SLAF must blast each and every possible LTTE targets, then our arti guys will issue maximum fire on ltte areas, yes I know civilian-ltte will get killed (thats why they should move now)

cut all the supplies to killino0chie, this include water,

just incase if ltte use chemical - then, don't wait till picture taken, capert bomb the friggin place and done with it.

Waa..Nam..Waa Po..Nam Poo come-ago chikago

GOD Bless SLA, SLAF, SLN, MR, GR, and SF

Parakrama said...

Shan, thambala, phaedrus, Ranil & others,

Sorry to drag you back to the previous thread guys....

So, we came to the conclusion that c-130 can land on a dirt track.

The question is, will this give the terrorists a viable alternative to sea smuggling, at least in the short run?

What I mean is that they probably can buy c-130 sized aircraft fairly cheaply (probably cheaper than replacing their ships). Is it viable for them to say take off from Thailand and come in un-detected and land supplies in Wanni? Or am I just talking about pie in the sky stuff here? What I'm thinking is that terrorists may be willing to sacrifice a plane or two (due SLAF interception) if there is a chance that they can smuggle in a sizable supply of weapons. What do you think?

Parakrama said...

Guys,

I got a reply from Biased Broadcasting Corporation! They only addressed one of the points that I raised but it was good to get a reply. I'll be on their case again as soon as I see something biased ;)

Hope you are doing the same!


RE: ?
From: NewsOnline Complaints (newsonline.complaints@bbc.co.uk)
Medium riskYou may not know this sender.Mark as safe|Mark as unsafe
Sent: 18 August 2008 12:12:21
To: id3@live.co.uk

Dear Sir,

Thank you for your email. It is our policy generally at BBC News Online to avoid the word "terrorist" in our stories.

We are aware of the importance of neutral language and realise that describing actions, organisations or individuals as "terrorist" can appear judgmental in parts of the world where there is no clear consensus about the legitimacy of militant political groups.

We would emphasise that it remains the BBC's overall objective to provide fair, balanced and accurate reports, which allow the public to make an informed judgement about what is happening in the world.

We hope this goes some way towards meeting your concerns. Thank you again for your email and your interest in our coverage.

Regards,

BBC News Website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Lankapura said...

Perein,
I suppose there could be some precautions like providing gas masks.
I was under the impression that there are large areas where civilians have been removed from - which leaves the possibility of Eelam airways being used to deliver well behind the army FDLs.

Jack said...

DW just a quick question when you say Kilinochchi are you speaking of the town or the district. So are they preparing to make this last abttle for the town or the whole district. I ask because you mention Thunnakai and Mullavi, so I assume you mean the whole district. Thanks.

Panhinda said...

If the 500 they have is used to somehow capture/destroy standoff weapons such as MBRL/artillery of the army, then yes they have a chance.

Moshe Dyan said...

thank you DW.

ANOTHER dream comes true. it was just last week that we proposed to BAIT the tigers into attacking us so that we can harvest them. i posted a baiting strategy used by real moshe dayan of israel.

it seems that approaching KILINOCHCHI IS ENOUGH BAIT for them!!!

"The LTTE is showing signs of defending Kilinochchi. Several units deployed in Jaffna and Weli Oya have been recalled to an unknown location in Kilinochchi.

.............. the 57 is the most lethal as it is aiming at the Tiger's heart.

In doing so, LTTE too must face the risk of losing a good many of its hardcore fighters in the attack."

way to go SLDFs.

anyhow i don't believe in "sacrificing" own troops. MBRLs/SLAF/cluster bombs and even APMs and landmines should do the support role of HARVESTING AS MANY TIGERS AS POSSIBLE.

onecountry said...

dont under-estimate LTTE. They will not launch suicidal unceasing wave attacks this time. Instead, I have a feeling that they would try to capture our choppers or MBRL batteries and use them against us while attacking on the front line. It may be hard for us to inflitrate Wanni. But, it is not that difficult for LTTE to infiltrate govt control areas under the cover of tamil population. Besides, we do have a fair share of traitors would sell anything for money. I think we have to be ready for any event and guard our assests to the maximum.

onecountry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Moshe Dyan said...

the area AROUND omanthai entry/exit point is going to stay as it is (more or less) for humanitarian reasons. this means the adjoining tiger areas are going to be under LTTE control for a long time. we discussed this.

this poses a BIG threat to SLA in the event they try to cross A9 from WEST to EAST north of omanthai. it allows tigers an ideal opportunity to attack SLA flanks in that event. DESPERATE tigers don't understand HUMANITARIAN reasons and the kindness of the govt.

in DELIBERATELY allowing tigers to "keep" a stretch of land connecting the entry/exit point around omanthai to the tiger heartland, the govt. has done a mistake. but the govt has no other choice either.

TF extra care should be taken on account of a flank attack from the SOUTH (N & E are also possible) WHEN SLA try to cross the A9 from WEST to EAST. tigers WILL use the stretch imediately north of omanthai to shell SLA positions.

Shan said...

parakrama

The question is, will this give the terrorists a viable alternative to sea smuggling, at least in the short run?

good aspect to look at. we were only considering the possibility of landing an aircraft but never the viability.

buying an aircraft may not be difficult but how do you fly it through airspace of varios countries. unlike a ship, an aircraft can only fly with clearance or you will most likely be shot down. ships and boats can load anywhere but an aircarft is a totaly diferent kettle of fish. it'll be an international affair and no country will allow it especially the US after 9/11.

imagine the scenario of lppe trying to smuggle in by air from chennai, how will the C 130 go into Chennai load and get out? do you think they can do it undeteceted like the tiny fishing boats. the distance between Colombo and Chennai is 685 km's, so chennai to iranamadu would take about an hour with the C 130 cruising speed of 540kmh - the darn thing would be roasted before it leaves Indian airspace

Bangkok is 2381km's and over 4 hours flying and by that time the whole world is looking for you. would the Thai authorities allow a rogue craft? how do you contend with the babies at Diego Garcia?

maybe you are lucky once but to continue, looks most unlikely.

even a mission to extricate VP would cause an international or diplomatic incident if another country is involved. maybe they'll be lucky enough to land and take off with him but what do you do after that, C 130 doesn't have the range to norway and neither can it land on sea.

Panhinda said...

/*
The basic premise of everyone who parrots away asking the Sinhalese to offer 'a solution' to the Tamils is that the Tamils are incapable of defining their own destiny. Worse, they are incapable of producing leaders of substance who can provide visionery leadership that could transcend ethnic or other barriers.

Has anyone really bothered to ask the majority Tamils whether they truly are that helpless?

- sandman of Asian Tribune
*/

Well said sandman.

Navindran said...

Panhinda, stop posting rubbish from Asian Tribune. There are no substainial leaders in all the communities in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka continues to fail because of weak leaders from all communities.

I would like to point out where Sri Lanka failed and Singapore suceeded. Many thing that Lee Kwan Yew is a visionary. In contary he was not. Raffless (from the East India Company) who founded modern Singapore was a visionary.

He knew that the kingdom that controlled Singapore was allied to the Dutch yet through his polticking he got the island for the british. In an ensuring settlement the dutch agreed that all that lands the where below Singapore were dutch and the rest British.

Even though he was a Lt govenor of another terriotry earlier he was disappointed with the early development and brought structure to the country.

In the 1960s before Singapore got independence and Lee Kwan Yew was prime minister of a self governing singapore. A team of UN expects were asked to help advice Singapore on how it should develop. Of the team of 3 one was a Jew who particularly liked Singapore. Till he died in the 1980s, he use to visit Singapore and meet the leaders and economic planners. Singapore early development was largely due to his foresight and vision and thankfully his special affection for the country.

http://wwwlib.murdoch.edu.au/adt/pubfiles/adt-MU20040503.142156/08Chapter7a.pdf

Navindran said...

Characteristics that made Lee Kwan Yew a better leader was firstly he was well educated. Second he had intolerance ( apersonal trait) to unhygenic and dirty conditions. This was rare as Asians and Chinese in particular were known for being dirty. One act of this to remove vendors from the streets and move them to hawker or food centres. The sewerage river was cleaned up to become the Singapore river and its moving on to become another source of drinking water.

Next he did not tolerate corruption. Even his own brother a DSP was removed from the police force due to allegations of corruption. One minister who commuted sucide, several MPs over the years have been removed and charged in court for corruption. Sri Lanka can only dream for such a leader.

He was also never biased towards talents. He particularly like Sri Lankans. However he always put the best man to the job. Likewise if the person went over the limit he would remove them immediately.

A example was Glenn Jeyasingam Knight (another Sri Lankan) He was the first Director of the white collar crime unit. However when he thought he was above the law and got himself corrupted, he was rightly punished.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Knight

How many would expect this to happen in Sri Lanka without a political motive behind it.

Navindran said...

When the PAP government started in 1959 to the late 70s, you had barbers, postmen etc as MPs. Today most hold masters degrees and the minsiters have MBAs and degrees from prestigious universities. George Yeo the foreign Minister came in first in class while chidamaram came fourth.

When the British left Singapore (their biggest naval base outside europe) in 1971, one british air force base commandant joked that Singapore could not afford to even the turf the feilds in the air bases. Today Singapore needs to use Australia, New Zeeland, Brunei, Thailand, Taiwan as training bases for its armed forces.

Its determination of the people and their want to suceed that propels leaders to lead them.

Moshe Dyan said...

panhinda,

100% with you.

SL politicians have given them MANY PROPOSALS in bloody platters in 1982, 1987, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007.

what they did was simply REJECT them and DEMAND MORE!!! this is a JOKE.

i see a parallel with israel. the same thing happened with PLO, etc. who were hardliners until THEY HAD TO accept something. during the early days when PLO and the others SIMPLY REJECTED all israeli proposals, moshe dayan a then minister said something FANTASTIC. i think his statement ALSO helped the others AGREE to RECIPROCATE eventually.

"We have no solution, you shall continue to live like dogs, and whoever wishes may leave, and we will see where this process leads."

now i don't want any SL politician to say this. they should simply put off giving a political solution UNTIL the other party learns to COMPROMISE and RECIPROCATE (give and take). if they can't....very sorry.

after SLDFs finish off the LTTE, i think tamil politicians (TNA or whatever) will be FORCED to agree to a solution or not have a solution at all.

running after them with plenty of solutions (which our stupid politicians have been doing) is a joke. after all they are the ones having a problem and neeing a solution, not the politicians!!!!!

out_sider said...

Remember the words of the Lone Ranger - flanking attack. The LTTE will not want to throw their hardcore units into a frontal assault where artillery and rockets could inflict serious damage and breakup the attack.

They will attempt to covertly get on the flank and press the attack where artillery would be as likely to hit SLA forces as much as their own. It will be launched at night in an attempt to keep any air response to a minimum. While jets and helicopters can fly at night, distinguishing friend from foe in close quarters without light would be very difficult.

The commanders need to be prepared for this possibility.

Shan said...

Moshe

picking off from your last post.

not only proposals they went to the extent of implementing some of them, the Provincial Councils ae one case in point. Was done due to arm twisting by the indians but that is a different point altogether, the fact remains it was one proposal that was thought to be viable and was implemented.

'platter' as you say is quite correct because some politicians went to the extent of even taking off the 'Sri' on number plates.

Navindran said...

Look at the mervin silvas and the 3 amigos who run the country. I have heard on the blogs that if prabakaran is gone Sri Lanka will flourish and the North East would develop etc etc. Prabakaran is a sympton of the problem. He is like a flu you catch you take medicine to cure it. However if you keep falling sick whose fault is it.

Before praba was Rohan. Do note that during the JVP uprising he was caught and imprisoned in Jaffna which was then considered a safe haven in Sri Lanka. Who created rohan and the the JVP uprising. It all boils to idioits systematically running the country. Lack of maturity and integrity of politicians.

In Singapore during the 1964 elections when she was part of Malaysia, there were 3 Malay Majority constituencies. Malays form the Majority in Malaysia. The Malay party UMNO thought it would take all 3 countiuncies but lost. reason Singaporeans of all races were practical and rejected race politics. Malaysia has taken 50 years to wake up to the idea.

I will not blame the Malays, for they would not have forsaw that people who were from their race who calimed to be championing their rights who actually be the ones to loot them and squander them. Like Sri Lankan many graduates out of the local universities find it hard to get jobs.

Yes staticially you have increased the number of graduates but you have done so at the expense and integritiy of the education system. Sri Lanka needs good leadership. If it had, Prabha will be defeated without firing a bullet.

Panhinda said...

Navindran,

/*
There are no substainial leaders in all the communities in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka continues to fail because of weak leaders from all communities.
*/

Leadership failures oscillated between Tamil and Sinhalese communities with varying degrees of harm and destruction. The first oscillation started after Ponnambalam Arunachalam left the legislative council in 1920. Until 1930s the communalism was isolated to the ruling class. The communalism finally hit the streets and the common man in 1932 when GGP made racist and provocative speech. The fist ever Tamil-Sinhala riots was triggered by the Tamil congress. Tamil congress was the main Tamil party of the island at that time. You could consider the oscillations did not do much harm, simply because its origin was the Tamil community a 12% minority.

Theses oscillations gathered pace as time went by. The return oscillation came as Sinhala-Only finally in 1956 in response to GGP provocations. These oscillations caused much harm simply because majority Sinhala leadership had much more power. Then came 1972 constitution depriving more power from the Tamils. After 1956 till around 1992, the Sinhalaese are totally responsible for leadership failures.

After LTTE sunk 2 ships at Trincomalee port abrogating the ceasefire and assassination of Neelan Thiruchelvam, the leadership failures has been with Tamils. No one stood up to own Tamil fascists purely because majority Tamils had by then put all their faith on achieving political goals with violence. You can say this is the tail end of that oscillation. Therefore its wrong to assume leaders of BOTH communities has failed simultaneously. It was a chain reaction started in 1920 by Tamil leadership, which eventually got out of hand. The responsibility for stopping the current oscillation peacefully is in the hands of the Tamil leadership. Hopefully, these oscillations will end with LTTE.

I agree with you however on cleanliness and corruption.

Navindran said...

Moshe, stop talking rubbish. The fudemental problem is using race and religion as a guise to govern. Remove both of them, then there needs no proposals. Stop listening to the bullshit propaganda that both sides have been spewing.

The kind of forcing down your throat solutions will only keep the LTTE going for the next years.

Why keep thinking sinhalese or tamil. Think Sri Lankan and whats best for it. Stop parroting the idiots who have ruined Sri Lanka.

Look at what Singapore owns in Sri Lanka.
http://www.lanka.com.sg/trade.html

This kind of meaningless banter will only make sri lanka a economic colony of foreign powers as it happened centuries ago.

Navindran said...

panhinda Singapore face 3 race riots before becoming what it is today. It never started the blame game. Trying to point fingers and find the origin is meaningless as people will continue to counter and show their end of the cause.

First all languages in Singapore were given equal standing. Singapore is secular. Sri Lanka should correct the mistakes. As a manager or leader you look to the origins of the problem to see how it best can be prevented the next time.

However its a manger/leaders responsibility to rectify the situation. Many Sri lankans keep looking back when the world has moved forward.

Moshe Dyan said...

navindran,

apart from your loads of crap, agree with you that we should stop thinking in racial terms IF WE ARE TO FIND SOLUTIONS.

unfortunately this ailment is affecting the LTTE and fellow separatists who CONTINUE to make RACIAL, RACIST and RACE BASED demands!!!!

stop them or kill them, we have no problem here.

i totally disagree that race is used to govern. look at the government. it is MORE diversified than the CRICKET TEAM!!!!

suppose you stopped thinking in terms of race, etc. then what is the first thing you would say? "look there are terrorists, child soldiers in SL, part of the country is infested with them, we can't do business there, there is no law and order/democracy there. so lets kill all LTTE terrorists."

am i not correct?

Navindran said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Race_Riots

Causes
Different kinds of reasons have been cited for causing the riots. Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak blamed Indonesian and Communist provocateurs.

On the other hand, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew and several other foreign observers attributed the riots as the result of agitation by Syed Jaafar Albar and other elements of the ultra-nationalist faction in UMNO. According to the Australian Deputy High Commissioner, W.B. Pritchett:

"...there can be no doubt that UMNO was solely responsible for the riots. Its members ran the communal campaign or allowed it to happen."[2]

The riots occurred during the period when the PAP-UMNO relations were severely strained after the People's Action Party challenged the UMNO in the March 1964 Malaysia federal election with the campaign slogan of Malaysian Malaysia.

In addition, the involvement of Chinese secret societies in the riots also increased the level of violence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Race_Riots_of_Singapore

Rumours began to spread in Singapore about Malay atrocities against the Chinese in Malaysia. People also talked indignantly about the partiality of the Malaysian Armed Forces in dealing with those suspected of involvement in the rioting; Chinese that were caught were severely punished on the spot and these rumours aggravated tension in Singapore.

Chinese martial arts gangs had planned a massacre of Malays in the Jalan Ubi area. The ISD nipped this in the bud. Roadblocks and police action were adequate in Kampong Glam, where some disturbances had occurred. But it required calling the military including National Servicemen, to set up a cordon round the affected districts in Singapore's north. The Police swept through these districts during a short blitz. The remaining rioters were rounded up on June 6th that finally restored public order to the affected communities.

This was the difference when Singapore being chinese majority dealt with the riots when they became independent. While in Malaysia the opposite happened.

Ninja said...

DW is quite right.

Imagine an devastating attack on 57D, withdrawal upto Viduthalathiv/ Adampan, UNP scoring on this and MR loosing PC elections, political instability, COL and anti-war heros' rescue mission....

SLA/SLDF need to be well prepared for much expected LTTE surprise and give the real surprise.

"No dying for our land - let them die for theirs" still good. Only issue is PC election.

Moshe Dyan said...

Shan,

the FUNNIEST thing is TNA walked out the APRC even before solutions were discussed!!!!

our platters are in shatters now. if any separatist want solutions now, pick them from what drops from the table! no more platters for them!

mark my word, now the separatists will AT LAST BOTHER to look into solutions.

another thing. if their previously unshakable stance changes DUE TO hammering their sun-goat's pawns left, right and centre, we know what we should CONTINUE to do!!

ohoma yang ohoma yang!

Navindran said...

Moshe both sides are racist. Thats why you need matured leaders. Its stupid to think the way you do. First the international community does not look at it that way. Thats what the sri Lankan goverment has been desperate to potray.

The sri lankan government has said that the rebels are using children and its not a race based war. Its a war against terrorism and its a humanitarian mission to liberate the people in the north and east. From your statement you do not seem to believe in the goverments propoganda and bullshit.

Navindran said...

Lastly Singapore has national service where all men need to serve in the army/police and civil defence regardless of race and religion. If Sri Lankans are forced to do this, then maybe some of you would be less averse to war when you arse is on the line. Secondly in the army the key thing is mental fitness and the promotion of team spirit and discpline. It would help many Sri Lankans.

Moshe Dyan said...

navindran,

now you are contradicting what you say by completely stupid crappy statements.

the following are UNDENIABLE facts.

1. a solution must be acceptable to sri lankans NOT to the IC nor the diaspora

2. there cannot be a solution based on race

3. terrorism MUST be eradicated

4. SL govt is multiracial

5. LTTE is mono-ethnic

agree??

Ranil said...

[1. a solution must be acceptable to sri lankans NOT to the IC nor the diaspora

2. there cannot be a solution based on race

3. terrorism MUST be eradicated

4. SL govt is multiracial

5. LTTE is mono-ethnic ]

100% with ya mate :)

TropicalStorm said...

The biggest battles brewing up will be aimed at not only stifling the advance for a considerable period of time, but also to re-open a corridor to the seas, particularly on the western coast.

SLA will need to keep a number of options open to allow a concentrated LTTE force to walk into an area and then seal-off and decimate. THis opportunity is likely to arise out of the desperation the LTTE is getting forced into. Watch the western coast SLA.

Surprisingly, the LTTE has not been able to produce any significant threat level in the East, even though the much talked abt Jeyanthan brig. had been infilterated there. A high profile conflict there would have changed perspectives of the whole country and provided a position of strength to the Tigers. This will prove to be a missed opportunity for them in hind sight.

TropicalStorm said...

www.lankaEnews.com is apparently offline.

There were a growing number of threats against this openly anti-govt website over the past few months. by attacking a low quality, low profile outfit, the SLG provides these forums a level of importance they really do not possess. If the SLG is responsible for shutting them down, then we have a problem; our friends are becoming as bad as our enemies.

MoratuSaman said...

Ninjo

[Imagine an devastating attack on 57D, withdrawal ]

Last 20 years - We had those kind of attacks from ltte. However lttE is the one who didn't have good ass kick...this magnitude.

as Moshe saying we need more Harvesting. And that is the best medicine for tamil cause.

Self determination
Highly disciplined
Self destructive
And world class Terrorists.

Wecha deata...Anna Sayieyadu.

Ranil said...

On defence matters

since most of us are worried about LTTE capturing our RM70's...
I'm sure SLDF is well aware of the risks and have taken necessary precautions to protect these assets...
in worse case scenario we should rig these machines with remote destruction mechanisms if it ever falls to enemy hands... Or better yet...hook up a gps beacon to it so even if ltte takes the bloody thing our slaf can take the rig out...
Another thing is that LTTE won't have ammo for these things too right? so even if they capture one... they can either use the ammo the launcher is loaded with or buy rockets for the units and use it later...

mortar units etc being called from other fronts to killi is sort of a dead giveaway that they are planning some form of counter attack and not only defending their territory...
What if tigers are planning a multi layered counter attack... probably have smaller teams trying to take on arti/mortar/mbrl positions with with some for of air cover and large groups trying to storm frontline defender units...
though zlins are not capable of any significant damage they can serve as a good diversion or even they might use some form of rudimentary chemical attack... These attacks can dent the morale of fighting units pretty fast since their counter measures can't really tackle the "new" threat....
Unless of course our forces have been trained at some level about chemical warfare

Ranil said...

[SLA will need to keep a number of options open to allow a concentrated LTTE force to walk into an area and then seal-off and decimate.]

TS... this is sorta what happened last time around when SLDF withdrew an allowed the tigers to "walk in" and get blown up by MBRL fire...
I think the downside is that to make a convincing "walk in" we'll have to take a few casualties on our side :(

TropicalStorm said...

Ranil

The Zlins can be used in the 'crop duster' mode to carry out a chemical attack. It is likely to be a very short lived attempt however, given the fact we would blow 'em out to hell in no time, once spotted. A night attack could be more successful. So when is next night with no moon?

TropicalStorm said...

Outsider

Distinguishing 'friend from foe' is done by id'ing the IFF beacon.

thambala said...

Navindran, all,
Please take your political talk to LNP.

Stick to the Defence theme!!!!!

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Tharanga said...

LTTE monkey agent "Horey" has poo pooed here again. DW, please delete his posts. Thanks.

PS, I agree with Thambala, those of you who want to talk politics go to LNP.

Parakrama said...

horey,

So, you think you are a hacker ha? Freaking idiot. Any muppet can create a gmail account and then cut 'n' paste shit into this blog. If you are a real hacker, try deleting some posts (well, apart from your own of course).

Parakrama said...

Shan,

Thanks for taking time to explain the situation to me. You are right, it will not be a viable option for the terrorists!

thambala said...

Parakrama, others,
I have another hypothesis about the runway the terrorists are building..

May be it is with the "hope", by creating a humanitarian crisis of gigantic propotions they would some how get a recognised institute (e.g. UN) to intervene and land some sort of aircraft.. the actual objective is not easy to hypothesis at this moment for me.. I think this is not a very good hypothesis any way..

Moshe Dyan said...

thambala & tharanga,

my apologies for going off the topic of discussion, mates.

but i argued with navindran on defence related politics ONLY. defence related political stuff is VERY MUCH part of war.

even in strategic defence studies the surrounding political environment is a BIG part.

phaedrus said...

Parakrama,

With regard to the runway, I think the LTTE may still have government/militia groups in Africa that may help with obtaining a plane. If they manage to land a bigger plane at the last moment for evacuation purposes, they can half fill it with civilians and put out an annoucement, making it similar to a hostage situation. Our military will not be able to destroy it for the fear of civilian casualities.

This may be used as an excape route to an African country.

Just one option that may need to be considered.

CriMeWatCh said...

Horey

good work, work hard.. Do more copy past job..



weda nethi heththa.. POST a link...pls

Tharanga said...

Guys, as someone said here before, it is impossible to fly in a C-130 undetected. C-130 is a heavy lifter and in the air it is a sitting duck unless it has fighter escort.

Also, the LTTE won't be able to dupe the UN to fly in relief missions as the govt has never stopped sending essential supplies to the Wanni, so effectively they haven't got a leg to stand on in front of the UN.

Also, someone said here the LTTE may have acquired Mig 21 Fishbeds, I say so what? Its not a threat. Mig 21s first flew in the 1950s and is essentially a rust bucket and used mainly by air forces for training missions. Can you imagine the extent of maintenance required for these cold war relics? And don't forget you need very skilled and experienced pilots to fly this higly manual and complex aircraft. I don't think the idiot LTTE pilots (who I don't think even have an O'Level education) can fly these rust buckets. It is possible to get mercenary (ex Soviet) pilots to fly but its suicidal to pitch these aircraft againts the Chengdus and Mig 29s.

As I have said before, the runway is a ploy, Kaati said here before the LTTE are experts in the art of deception, I agree with him.

On a side note, the Chengdu F-7 uses the same airframe as the Mig 21, but thats where the similarities end, the F-7 is a radically different aircraft (avionics, engines, armaments etc.).

thambala said...

Moshe,
Ok. Still I humbly request you to be a bit more selective.

thambala said...

Guys,
This thought occured to me before about the runway but did not get the opportunity to write..

Was this place a thick forest? In that case a good number of trees would have been felled. What could be the use for these trees? Building some fortified bunkers? Just a line of thought..

Also if there are multiple runways could it not be a difficult job for SLDF to manage? This could be a reason behind it.


But then again if we look at the current situation this LTTE has started this at a real pressure situation. It's really difficult to believe that they would be doing this to fool the SLDF. I think they are going to attempt to land a large aircraft by taking a huge risk. This is the time to take such a risk. I think we need to think along those lines.

Now what if the aircraft flies really low hugging the sea for example. Will that keep it out of radar until such time it is near to the strip?

thambala said...

It must be something to do with landing or taking off air craft I think

Tharanga said...

Thambala,

You can't fly heavy aircraft at low altitudes for long periods, the fuel burn rate is very high. Also, our SLN patrol boats can detect it if the radars can't. Also, I believe we have installed radars for low flying aircrafts, the C-130s have a radar signature the size of a cricket pitch!

Parakrama said...

Tharanga, Thambala,

You don't have to fly it at low alt for too long as they'll know where the range of our radar is. They only have to go low inside our radar area. Is this also too long a distance?

Parakrama said...

Tharanga,

I don't think tigers have MiG's! Would it not have been impossible for them to smuggle it in? Smuggling it in is the only way as flying it in is out of the question (due to the relatively low range of fighter jets).

Also, even if they have MiG's, is it not impossible to take off without a paved runway?

So, I don't think we have to worry about MiG's.

However, what if they bring in a fairly large aircraft, fill it with bombs (or chemical weapons) and go for a one huge suicide mission against our troops on one of the fronts? Is that feasible?

Sorry to keep on mentioning this runway, but I agree with Thambala, they must be doing it for some other reason than just as a diversionary tactic.

perein said...

Ammata uddu.... Serapu godai...
Bata business would be booming... or is it the DSI..

NOLTTE=Peace said...

Clearly the expansion of the runway is to distract SLAF to divert focus and resources.

LTTE may be planning a huge flank attack to decimate the Killinochchi West front as described here, and this is the diversion.

thambala said...

I think we must take the initiative and strike before they do.

This could be an all forces intense strike maintained for a brief period (say 2,3 days), or SLAF bombing runs combined with Naval attacks, attacking vital points to debilitate any planned attacks.

As I said before we should give them some of the surprises too at this point.

thambala said...

I think the key factor for SLDF here is good intel. I think this has improved over time and we are really upto date on realtime intel. I hope I am correct here..

On the other hand It is vital that SLDF intel does not leak out and this is an even more difficult task to accomplish. But this can be achieved by way of propagating a number of false pieces of intel on a given issue.

thambala said...

An update of fighting here..

http://www.army.lk/morenews.php?id=15368

According to this Troops are fighting at UYLANKULAM. This means 57 has by passed Thunukkai and Mallavi to UYLANKULAM and surrounding?

Also is nochchikudah the same as nachchikudah? Has 58 Div stopped advancing towards Punranna (Pooneryn)? Who is playing at UYLANKULAM? 57 or 58?

Ranil said...

guys
i don't think tigers have jets...period :)
they don't have the facilities to maintain these things and having trained pilots etc etc are just way off for an outfit that can't seems to get hold of SAMs anymore... at least not at the moment

Moshe Dyan said...

thambala,

sorry mate, my bad. priyashantha also pointed that out. will do.

LKDOOD said...
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LKDOOD said...

LTTE fired Artillery & Mortar in the morning

http://defence.lk/new.asp?fname=20080819_03

looks like not all have been moved to the south

thambala said...

Moshe,
great! Now some praise is due for your regular and invalualable comments. Please do carry on!

Moshe Dyan said...

tharanga,

you are wrong about mig-21s and tiger pilots, mate. they are still in use (more than 10,000 were produced and a LARGE number has been scrapped though)and there are many "upgrade packs". fitted with these it is a power to be recon with. TAF pilots are well trained according to what i know in piloting their crafts. some tigers had been given advanced training according to some source, jet piloting.

our chinese (J-7s) variants are a DERIVATIVE of the FISHBED.

a contest between J7s (our present interceptors) and MiG-21s fitted with upgrade kits would be far unfavourable to us than our handling of zlings (to say the least).

of course these won't stand a chance against the Mig29.

suppose tigers have a fishbed, it will be used only once or max twice. it cannot be hidden. IF tigers get one, they will "neutralise" our AF like what the IAF did to egypt, jordan and syria in 1967. (of course our friendly countires will come to our rescue).

anyway there is no evidence to proove that TIGERS HAVE a jet.

Parakrama said...

Moshe,

I'm not familiar with what IAF did back in 67, so can you briefly explain to me how the tigers will be able to neutralise SLAF please?

Tharanga said...

Moshe,

Disagree. Yes, there are many refits of Mig-21s being used by Indian Airforce, Pakistan Airforce, China, Iran etc. However, I fail to see how these refit models can be procured by the Tigers. First of all, they are expensive, secondly and most importantly, no legitimate goverment would sell these on to the Tigers. However, you can get second hand rust buckets in serviceable state from the black market in ex-Soviet states (did you know that you can get 70s version on Mi-24s from the black market, these were used by mercenary pilots in Angola to attack rebels!). The main point is that it needs a lot of servicing, maintenance and expert pilots to keep these in the air (and don't forget jet fuel). Hence, I agree that the TAF don't have jets. I think I did mention that the F-7 is Mig-21 variant, but its onlt the airframe that is the same, everything else is different.

On TAF pilot training, you can get a licence to fly during day time after 16 hours flying time and after a further 10 hours, you are qualified for night flying. Where I live, school children have pilot licences to fly Cessnas and other light aircraft. So I don't think TAF pilots are highly trained. Also, what is the incentive for jet enginge trained pilots to serve in a rag tag airforce? They would go on to do better things. These guys are trained to fly light crop duster aircraft, no more, no less!

perein said...


terrorists launched an artillery and mortar attack at the Muhamalai and Nagarkovil ...
defence.lk


Wonder LTTE is pushing the man power towards other end of the Killi while showing not to get closer to Muhamalai FDL!!!

Tharanga said...

You may ask me how you can buy a jet fighter in the black market. Easy, these rust buckets are stored in remote locations, all you need to do is pay the middle man and he will sort everything out including the purchase price, bribing security at the storage location and transporation. There is a lot of ex-Soviet military hardware that weren't subject to Start-1 and Start-2. If you can buy nuclear warheads in the black market, you can buy Fishbeds.

If they can smuggle in boats, artillery, AA guns, light aircraft, Manpads, SAMs etc., I fail to see how they can't smuggle in a Mig-21. Remember the KP Branch is very effective. But from a practical operational perspective, I don't think they can cope with a Mig-21 and I don't think they have it (they want us to believe they have it, thats py-ops!)

Jack said...

"is it not impossible to take off without a paved runway?"

Just wanted to clarify something, I believe a lot of people are of the opinion that the LTTE runway in Iranamadu was unpaved due to the google earth photos, but you should know that it IS paved, those photos are a snapshot in time during its construction. So the 'new' runway too most likely will be paved.

Nonetheless I agree that I don't thin the LTTE has jets or the infrastructure to support them even if they managed to get one. BUT doesn't hurt to keep it in mind as a possibility of course.

perein said...

Tharanga-
If LTTE have any jet fighters, surely they would not wait this long until it's get to their back yard.

Parakrama said...

Jack,

Are you sure about the runway being paved? I was under the impression that it was just a dirt track, not because of Google Earth, but I think I read somewhere that it was just a dirt track.

If it is paved, then of course we can drop a couple on inexpensive bombs on it! Somebody explained to me a long time ago on DN that it is quite difficult to repair damage to a paved runway. So, if it indeed is paved, then it makes SLAF's job that much easier and more efficient!

Tharanga said...

Perein, all hell will break loose if they use fighter jets. First, India will be scared shitless and they will make sure that the LTTE air capabilities are destroyed as a priority, then the US would be jumping from their chairs, it sets a dangerous precedent for other terror groups and the US wouldn't want Al Qaeda copying these, thus I wouldn't be surprised if they send Tomahawk cruise missiles towards VP's way (like they did in Afghanistan after the US Embassy bombings).

Rebels using Helis and Crop Dusters is one thing, using fighter jets is a whole different ball game.

Shan said...

jack

so much the better if the airstrips are paved, you bomb them and it's not easy to repair. needs time and material unlike filling up dirt holes.

iranamadu strip was bombed many a times but was filled up and repaired, not so easy if it was paved.

Shan said...

take a look at the weapons captured at Uylankulam.

have any of you seen photos with lppe cadres carrying new T 56 rifles? all those captured in battle are old rifles.

any thoughts?

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