The face of things to come

The pro-LTTE media, quite understandably is excited that the LTTE has stopped running and started defending their positions although the Army too is not unhappy about this new development. The SLA understands the difference between defense and offense, having mastered the former with minimum success and now mastering the latter with great success.

Around 55 soldiers have laid down their lives in fighting at Nachchikuda, Vannerikulam etc in the past few days. These are the true figures. Government media reports the figure low while pro-LTTE media exaggerated it. Any reader with a reasonable intellect knows which is which.

The state media has to hide the fact, understandably due to politics, but the Army has no real reason for concern. A concern would arise if the LTTE annihilated an SLA garrison in a matter of few days, like in the days gone past. But those days are now long gone.

We must understand the present context in which the fighting is happening before reacting (either pessimistically or optimistically depending on which side you support). We at DefenceWire also wish to make this an opportunity to answer some email queries made by some of our more 'connected' viewers who are closely following the developments up north. We will answer each concern one-by-one in our posts, starting today.

First of all, the concern that the Army is losing more men now and that it would not be able to make it past the Nachchikuda line.

The LTTE is getting into a do-or-die situation. They are fighting closer to home than before, therefore the defence-in-depth strategy has to kick in sooner rather than later. This is not a surprise. It has certainly not surprised the Army.

Anyhow, if our wish is to save the lives of our soldiers, we must then urge the government to stop the war and justify to ourselves the continued acts of terrorism on our soil. No war is possible without the loss of lives. What is possible is to make a reasonable effort to minimize it and this includes the lives of civilians.

Let's analyze the ground realities. LTTE absolutely must guard Pooneryn. If it loses Nachchikuda, it will lose Pooneryn. Two more offensive SLA Divisions plus a mechanized infantry division are waiting to come south.

Pooneryn is also the buffer between Jaffna and Kilinochchi. It is the last remaining coastline and sea route to India for immediate logistical needs such as medicines, fuel etc. It is also the base from which the Jaffna insurgency is maintained. All will be lost if Pooneryn is lost.

The Nachchikuda FDL is crucial and the LTTE knows it. Rather than risking its cadres lives to flanking and a collapse from the rear by 8-12 man SLA teams spread throughout a large area, the Tigers have constructed a large trench-line forming a single FDL. The strategy is to increase safety in concentrated numbers. It is these numbers that the Army is also after. So the LTTE has entered into a gamble.

With the trench comes a defensive posture uncharacteristic to the LTTE. In affect, the LTTE is behaving the same way the Army did in the face of the Ceaseless Waves. It is using conventional tactics developed during World War I to fight the Army's 3rd generation warfare and unconventional tactics.

The strategy has its advantages and disadvantages. A trenchline offers the defenders the first 'shoot-to-kill' opportunity as attackers attempt to breach it at its weakest points by crossing natural or man-made obstacles. But disadvantages of the strategy were discovered over 50 years ago by the Allies. More recently, the Sri Lanka Army has learnt the same lessons many times over.

The disadvantages come with the amalgamation of all your strength into one place. This makes their location known, reduces the level of surprise etc. The level of fatigue in holding out against continuous day and night raids is high. The psychology and emotional capacity of the soldier is adversely affected at times. Rain, flooding, mud-slides and constant reconstruction of damaged lines can exhaust the manpower.

A line trench with large numbers of troops committed to is has to maintain complete control of the line at all times. If the enemy breaches the line continuously and manages to gain a foothold in a few locations, the defenders become demoralized and vulnerable.

Currently, the SLA has breached the Nachchikuda-Akkarayan LTTE FDL at 6 different locations. The LTTE has used its initial advantage against the Army and managed to spot and kill and injure 4 SLA platoons through early action with a loss of a platoon on its own side. But the defenders will not receive a reprieve. Their location is known, but the location of the raiders is always a guess.


To be continued.....