Saturday, October 18, 2008

The race to Kilinochchi begins

Heavy fighting erupted in Akkarayankulam as the 57 Division launched a massive attack to dismantle the trenchline and bunt at Akkarayankulam today. Casualties to the LTTE is yet unknown. The line was breached from the western and eastern flanks forcing the Tigers to abandon the line and move to its center.

Troops have now bypassed the line and positioned themselves to the rear of the bund. With this lightening strike, the earth bund has lost all its significance as a defensive measure designed to delay troop movement towards Kilinochchi Town.

For the Army, the attack demonstrates a new urgency to capture Kilinochchi before the rainy season continues into November. Kokavil and Akkarayan are renowned for their susceptibility to flooding during the northwestern monsoon season. Kokavil is especially vulnerable due to its low-lying terrain. The tank at Akkarayan and the nearby ravines are also susceptible to overflowing during the monsoon. Experienced soldiers who have fought in this terrain, like Maj. Gen Chula Dias for example, should know this terrain by heart.

The 57 Division's thrust to capture Kilinochchi must and probably will go into high gear from now onwards. The Army must not get bogged down in Kokavil for the entire duration of the Monsoon. The Tigers on the other hand would want the Army's advance in these areas to be delayed as much as possible, through both military and political tactics. But the LTTE's military capabilities are crumbling as we speak.

The LTTE is now showing signs of abandoning the Nachchikuda Sea Tiger base by sea. The 58 Division surrounded the base in a U-shape after tactical maneuvers to the east and then to the west, cutting off the A32 road. Tigers had escaped towards Nochchikudah in Pooneryn on a few previous occasions already.

Sources told this site that Tigers may have withdrawn its more experienced fighters from the base already. Although exact troop strength inside the besieged base is unclear, the SLA is expecting some resistance to overrunning the base. Sri Lanka Navy's arrow boats and SBS units have been deployed to cut-off any further major escapes from Nachchikuda.

58 Division's laborious operations to dismantle the Nachchikuda-Akkarayan trench is paying rich dividends. Although weeks were spent strategizing the dismantling process, the fall of Vannerikulam was soon followed by the capture of Manniyakkulam, a Ground of Tactical Importance (GTI).

This GTI was also the access route to reinforce Nachchikuda from Kilinochchi via Kokavil. Immediately after its capture, the A32 was also cut-off by the Army. The junction at Maniyakkulam has a direct route leading to Valaipadu and the jungle areas surrounding it. These areas must be infiltrated and captured by the 58 before reaching Pooneryn.

207 comments:

1 – 200 of 207   Newer›   Newest»
History said...

Just heard that Theepan moved out fron killinochchi and here start the Kili express..

Weldone SL Army

Defence Column said...

Hi Folks, Pls take a minute to answer the following question. Lets see what people think?
Will Sri Lanka Stall the military operation due to indian pressure?

Defencewire said...

Yes he had been sent back several days ago. His expertise is in arti and mortar. Tigers believe SLA is about to break out in large numbers. This they thought was indicated by a recent operation by the 53. SLA captured an LTTE trench and engaged Tiger reinforcements at Kilali for a long time. Tiger leadership was getting concerned about this because they have to look after this area as well as they can. They cannot afford to open up a large battle front in Jaffna. LTTE have defended themselves well in this area thanks to some poor planning by us and heavy artillery by LTTE and LTTE is afraid that recent SLA limited operations could turn things on its head. Their answer by sending Theepan is a very old answer. LTTE will not resolve these small group attacks through theepan's artillery experience.

GoldenEagle said...

defencewire

How many tanks does the SLA have?

I know that we have some T-55 tanks, but several sources now report that we also have Type-59 and Type-69 tanks from China and that all tanks will be upgraded to the Al-Zarrar version by Pakistan. Is this true?

Defencewire said...

ge,

Yes we do. The T-55 is the Russian. T69/79 is the export version of the Chinese Tank. We acquired an entire such unit some time ago. SLA procurement guys came back from a visit to Pakistan 1+ month ago. I'm afraid we cannot comment on that any further. Perhaps with some clearance we might.

Defence Column said...

President discusses situation in the North with Indian Prime Minister

Thambapanniya said...

Well done... let the games begins...

much waited update thanks DW

nemesis said...

Thanks DW,

Well written as always :)

Wish we could get some PLA "Zippos" along with the tanks :) would do nicely in the mulathivu jungles once the rain clears.

Infinity said...

Troops take control of 10 km of A-32 Highway

Saman K. said...

Well done boys.

Ahhhaaaa killi express started from other side.

guys i don't think any body can stop killi express now.

Kollane umbalata yoda bala yoda haiya labewa.Away from my mother land these wishes from bottom of my heart.

Kollane umbalata jayawewa.

Asithri said...

Thanks DW for the update...

I trust LTTE has made ready the eulogy for the Nacchchikuda’s impending “instant maveerars” (yep, it will be like the “instant coffee”)…

Stay tuned…I am told the true “score” may not even be published given the agitation from LTTE stooges in TamilNadu (at least not officially or publicly by the GOSL!)

Stay tuned indeed…a bountiful harvest is imminent by all accounts…

Cool!

OaO Asithri

මොරටු සමන් - MoratuSaman said...

"With this lightening strike"

Elakiri!

We should use heavy guns speed up the race, once we are in killinochchi, tamilnadu will STFU.

අපේ සිංහල කොල්ලන්‍ට ජය වේවා!
කිලිනොච්චියේ සිංහ ධජය නංවන දිනය ළඟයි

Kaavalan said...

I thought the race began 2 years ago? how many times does it begins? :D lol...

You fools, go get Kili, a supprise is waiting for you there.

Best of luck!

TigerKiller said...

bye bye PTTE , bye bye PEELAM

We must protect our tamil brothers and sisters that are kept forcebily in killinochchi . SLA / SLG ZERO civilian casualty is the way to go . do not forget to even pardon who ever surrender though tghey are LTTE ( as SF said that doesn't apply to Vezapille , Pottan and some of die hard diaspora )

let's build new Sri Lanka with the end of LTTE monster .

As much as we eradicate LTTE , We should take our Tamil brothers and sisters to our side

Thoughtful Guy said...

dear kavalan.....how many "surprises" have you guys been throwing at us, from maaviaru to Kilinochii the only surprise is how much pussy the tigers have really become.... the day that you get the biggest surprise is not far away....

TigerKiller said...

Kaavalan
I thought the race began 2 years ago? how many times does it begins? :D lol...


We know that is your last hope after trying hide in Karunanidi's daughter Pant :):_):)

by bye PEEEELAAAAAAAAMMM.

History said...

Defence column,

/*Will Sri Lanka Stall the military operation due to indian pressure? */

-- No matter what pressure they get from India, Sri Lanka cannot, have to or will not stop the operations..
-- Let's say Sri Lanka really like to stop it, still they cannot stop it.. That is the interesting side..

Now the floodgate has opened, there is a huge trend in international arena to support this war. Today India has very few options. One of such is to issue a media statement or give a call to Sri Lankan president. They can force but Sri Lanka does not have to stop. They both knows that..

Malin said...

Kaavalan we have been waiting for suprise by LTTE for sometime now and so far its all been Duds (Blanks)...

Anyway if you say we will still wait...

Sarathg said...

I HAVE ONE SHORT AND SWEET MESSAGE

THIS ORGANIZATION HAS DESTROYED SRI LANKA FROM THE TIME IT STARTED TO OPERATE.

I WISH YOU ALL THE BEST, IN EVERY WAY.

PLEASE DESTROY LTTE AND LET NO TWO STONES STAND TOGETHER WHICH BEARS ITS NAME. ERASE OUT LTTE FROM THE HISTORY OF MOTHER LANKA

Defence Column said...

Sinhalese, Muslims and Tamil Party Leaders oppose Indian intervention in Sri Lankan affairs

Ninja said...

No one question will K'chi fall or not but the question is when.
_____________________________________________


Kaavalan: Hey tiger thambi, what's going on? What happened to our money? How come SLA coming to K'chi if you repulsed all SLA advances?

Tiger: Hey Kaavalan anna don't worry. We have a surprise for SLA. Wait and see. But please send money before that.

//You fools, go get Kili, a supprise is waiting for you there.//

Defence Column said...

The French Police have banned a demonstration planned by LTTE loyalists in France to support the LTTE terrorists.

Ruwani said...

[Tiger: Hey Kaavalan anna don't worry. We have a surprise for SLA. Wait and see. But please send money before that.]

Tiger Coolie,

The surprise you are talking about I am guessing must be a chemical attack against our armed forces. I wouldn't be surprised by it at all.

As a matter of fact, I don't believe our forces should be waiting for a Chemical attack from the Coolies. Instead, we should spray Agent Orange and clear the forests of Gilinochchi as a pre-emptive strike.

PS: The agitations in Tamil Naadu are not enough. You Coolies should ask for more violent agitations in Naadu. We are just waiting for an excuse to get our DPU's feet on Naadu soil.

Defence Column said...

History,
I agree with you and I strongly believe that Sri Lanka will not give in to Indian pressure. But there may be people who think otherwise! The poll was initiated to get a feel about how positive people are on this matter. The results I believe, will help clear off any doubts if some one has a doubt.
Will Sri Lanka Stall the military operation due to indian pressure?

History said...

I know if you are in Sri Lanka you might know this already but to me this was a news, though it is not relevant thought to share it here..

Shehan sets 100m c'wealth record at Youth Games

Sam Perera said...

Our thoughts and hopes are always with my brave heart brothers and sisters of the armed forces of Sri Lanka.

Bless SLDF!!
Bless Sri Lanka!!!

Bhairav said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bhairav said...

One thing this Wanni war proved that VP is incompetent leader, maybe, he lives in shadow of his former self. Whatever the military advantage govern has gained so far will be nothing if they cannot convince the Wanni people to come to the cleared areas.

With the current rise of TN, LTTE will buy some time before coming back strong and push the SLA into old positions, and the history will repeat itself and Sinhalese will realize that they would have better of with RW than MR.

razor lk said...

econd

Srilankan said...

Sam Perera,
Fully agree bro."Thunuruwan saranai" to all our BRAVE forces.May GOD guide you to victory over these LTTE buffoons.As for Mr Kaavalan..he is going to get a big surprise as well but maybe not on the war front when the number of singhala students(belonging to the "singhala buddist chavenistic govt" of course) to university of "wathura-kakkussiya" in Canada..so sorry LORD GOD IC increases.They will be competeing for those "prestigious" take away or eat-in jobs.

Srilankan said...

Bhairav,
Let what you say happen first..then we will discuss it.Really no point second guessing ourselves.

razor lk said...

As i think Army should send commandos and STF units to fight in kili town coz as i know they are well trained for urban warfare. Also they should armed with new set of weaponry including autoloader shotguns and some tactical gear like flashbangs and CS gas. finally the camouflage needs to be changed. guys what do u think?

Rana said...

Thanks DW,

However, most of the things you have written are known to us and about two days old. You should have done better than this. in short we are expecting something new and latest from you. Do it atleast next time.

Defence.lk and army.lk both now suppresing vital info, we are away from the mother land getting starved due to lack of info on real ground situ.

Even they are not updating orbat or cyber maps. Those maps are not showing exact positions of 57 and 58.

Guys, give us some good links whene ever you see interesting developments.

Thanks, and Victory for SLDF with blessings for bravo boys.

Single said...

Dear Bahirav,
All this time I really had a respect for you as an relastic person.

However it seems with the defeat after defeat, you too now into the dreaming and praying for something happen from TN.

Wake up or just extend your dreams/hypothesis until they reach till Obama's victory whose first job in the DC is SL war! (LOL!)

IF ( a big unleastic "IF") TN succefful in this pressure, they have to accpet the total responsibility for what will wait for the Tamils in SL!

Even with TN pressure, what India can ask SL to do or India themselves can do? Can they fly and drop like Rajiv did?

If India ask to stop war against the same Terrorist killed their beloved PM, and SL said NO and go ahead with the war and finish it. Development work coming next and contracts may be end up in PAK, China etc..Not a good news for Indians isn't it?

SL has some new freinds disturbing India. As you know, Global super power axis is changing...

Economy : When all runs well in western front, SL survived with Norwegian pressure. SL survivied with Central bank, Katunayaka attacks. This is another testing time...but SL will survive (hardship is nothing new to us).

Regds
btw : How is the credit crunch there!

Infinity said...


Defence Column, Sunday Observer



Sunday Observer interview with Defence Secretary

Ninja said...

History

About your figures; Both DN/DW gave total estimated strength of LTTE was aroung 40,000 cadres about two years ago. I guess so far around 10,000 cadres are dead in two years. That's why I said 'divide by two';No other source.

Nisal said...

[[Kaavalan said...]]

[[go get Kili, a supprise is waiting for you there.]]

Once upon a time, the surprise was in Mavilaru.

After few days, it moved to Muttur.

Then it moved to Sampur.

Then it moved to Vakare -> Thoppigala, Adampan -> Vidathalathivu -> Thunikai, Mallavi -> Kokavil -> Nachchikuda....
and finally,....., to Kilinochchi.

Once we capture kili, the surprise will goto Patanthan.

Once we capture Paranthan, it will move to "Some where"

Ninja said...

It was said GSL hedged against oil prices when it was around $140. Any one knows the present situation? Is GSL still under hegding agreement and buying $60 baral for $120???

SINHALA REVELOUTIONARY ARMED FORCES (SRAF) said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
SINHALA REVELOUTIONARY ARMED FORCES (SRAF) said...

Ayubowan to everyone.First of all kudos to DW to doing a great job. this is my first post, I ve been watching the recent developments and it reaaly bites me when India tries to interfere in OUR countries matters, as if they think they own sri lanka or somthing. But what bites me most is even when they are issiung us notices and warnings and stuff our sri lankan people and politiceans just keep quite. Why cant we rise up as one nation together and just say to INDIA to ''SHUT THE FUCK UP AND MIND YOUR OWN FUCKING BUSSINESS''. I see students protesting for university related matters, and workers struggling for more pay, and all these other protesters etc. Well We have to understand as a nation all those things wouldnt matter if you dont have a country to call your motherland in the first place. I sudjest we as bloggers should organize a mass internet campaign to educate our fellow sri lankans about the value of our motherland, the value of a soveriegn nation and an undivided country which is free from external interferences. I hope even after that the general public will get aware of this online campaign through the internet, mass media etc and will rise up as one for a massive protest towards the international community and especially INDIA to stay the fuck out of SRI LANKA's Internal (but highly progressive) struggle to get rid of this bloddy cancer called the LTTE.

''mawath, maubimath swargayata wada uthumya''

jayawewa.

perein said...

Thank you DW for the latest posting.
Sounds like LTTE is doing 10,000 M and maraton away from Kili.

Bhairav-
Sounds like you have accepted the defeat. So you already aware that LTTE capital will fall soon....

Are you still funding them :) Lol..

GoldenEagle said...

What the LTTE fools and their Tamil Nadu politicans fail to understand is that Sonia Ghandi will never let the LTTE survive.

New Delhi decides the future of India not Tamil Nadu.

GoldenEagle said...

India can't put too much pressure on Lanka, cause it will cause Lanka to move in deeper into China's fold.

For India, its future supremacy in the Indian Ocean is at stake.

Ninja said...

In 1987;

1. Operation vimukthi was going on under DenzilK.
2. VP was surrounded and SLA wanted few hours to get him.
3. VP noticed tamilnadu CM.
4. Tamilnadu CM demanded Indian PM to intervene.
5. India ordered to stop the offensive.
6. SL prez rejected the request.
7. India send Indian navy boats with food.
8. SLN blocked them.
9. India send Indian air force with parippu.
10. SLAF could d o nothing and prez JRJ stopped the offensive.
11. RajivG sent a helicopter for VP to come to India.
12. Indu-Lanka accord came.

Above events were out of our control. Now here is the critical part which was under our control.

13. SLFP started protests against JRJ saying he signed a 'secret pact' with India and betrayed the country.
14. JVP too joined the campaign to 'save the motherland'. (well, IPKF intel cheif now says JVP had connections with LTTE at that time...)

Presidential election was coming and both parties tried to get political advantage. Result was 50,000+ sinhala youth dead. SLFP also didn't come to power.

Lesson is it is quite easy to blame the government and make new problems or make worse the existing ones. It is sad to see UNP is following the same failed tactics.
_____________________________________________

We note the following;

1. Indian high rankers know about SL/sinhalese quite well.
1.1 They know sinhalese build a unique langauge, culture and values in the island in 2500 years history.
1.2 This means sinhalese are different from any Indian mentality.
1.3 SL was independent sovereign state throughout the history.
2. Technically this is a 'internal problem' of SL and other countries has nothing to do with it unless GSL invited them.
3. However if India used the superior power then SL has no immediate option other than 'do as say'.
4. India worries becuz of tamilnadu.
5. Tamilnadu worries becuz of internal politics and tamil racism.
6. North indians don't like tamils in general.
7. Sinhalese are more close to north indians in culture and language.
8. We can expect this influence to be reduced after elections-6 months.

My suggestions to deal with India

1. Never underestimate or overestimate India or ourselves.
2. GSL should make things easy for Indian central government to deal with tamilnadu.
3. Convince them SL work on development in east.
4. Convince them SL takes care of civilians in wanni.
5. Wanted criminals VP and potta amman are two best weapons GSL have on hand right now; use them wisely.
6. SL media should express their opposition to Indian influence in a logical way.
7. SL political parties (UNP/JVP/JHU) should back the government and support war effort and demand India not to influence on GSL. JVP/JHU should not attack Indian center rather than they should critisie tamilnadu CM.
8. SL intellectuals/ artists should convey the message to tamil media about the true situation in SL. They should convince tamil people in tamilnadu that tamils under GSL are safe and tamils under LTTE sre suffering.
9. SL should manage with China and Pakistan wisely.
10. SL should act boldly but wisely.

Nirosh said...

It was very interesting to read SF's wiki.. check the "Military career in the Srilankan Army" section. That's a joke man, look the last para, it says..

".....However being the majority of the country, 75%, Sinhala people would never give in........"

I just put a comment asking about that too.. for sure, someone might have done the edit.. Should be able to find it if check the history..

Ninja said...

I have to add "convince India SL is working on political solution".

Well, if we can say "f**k off India, mind your own business" fine. But this is not a possibility due to obvious reasons.
However, silence from our heroes who protest against USA going to Iraq and Israel going to Palestine is surprising.

Let me repeat what I said in other words. What we as public can do is express our concern in a logical and decent way via newspapers and internet etc. We need to stress India has no right to intervene, LTTE is banned in India, VP and potta amman are wanted criminal by Indian law, etc.

However, all these factors are well known things. It may be surprising to someone how come a CM stand for banned outfit despite all their past and present actions. The reason is tamil racism and racism based politicians in tamilnadu. I think as public that's where we need to attack and not the center. We need tell them just becuz some people speak same language as you speak in tamilnadu you can't intervene in SL internal problems or problems of SL citizens. TN don't have moral right to complain or demand center about issues in another country. TN CM was elected and paid by Indian citizens to rule Indian citizens in tamilnadu and not to make or solve in SL or SL citizens in SL.

These actions of TN politicians and other racist elements are out of any accepted norm in international politics and we with int. media should make noise against this unfair and unethical influence.

Nirosh said...

Regarding SF wiki:

As I thought, some anonymous guy from "Great Britain (UK)" has done the changes..

Same guy is keep on adding "He won the Green Card lottery, to become a current US Green Card holder" to his early life and family section. That is another joke, that is irrelevant to the heading.

If you ever refer to wiki, just keep in mind that it is only 70% accurate..

Hope this is not something irrelevant for this blog topic :-)

LKDOOD said...

DW

thanks for the update

LKDOOD said...

Sri Lanka ‘mindful of Indian concerns,’ invites Pranab

LINK

LKDOOD said...

Ready to pay any price: Karunanidhi

LINK

LKDOOD said...

Food delivered to war-displaced civilians in Sri Lanka

LINK

Constantin Demiris said...

Kaavalan and other LTTE fans,

The actual race began when your beloved 'peace dove' Thavachelva ranted of a bloody bath for the 'sinhala' army if it sets foot on wanni soil.

You should ask from your wanni masters where the bloody hell is the pay back i.e the much vaunted Oyatha Alikal. Are your comrades on a seizure?

Perhaps this will answer your questions? sorry its a long read, but heck its quite a read.

tamil tiger's defensive gamble

Constantin Demiris said...

I also have a question from DW,

I thought i heard on rupavahini today that troops have moved forward a few meters up in the North. But rivira says they have gone back to their original positions like they have done before.

Which is correct?

wijayapala said...

History,

"So what I need to hear from a fellow Sri Lankan at this juncture is some encouragement to our fighting soldier.."

If soldiers actually read this blog then your suggestion theoretically would make sense. As it turns out, the soldiers are busy fighting in the Wanni and don't have time to play keyboard warrior.

Contrary to what half-witted expatriates who compare Kilinochchi 2008 to World Cup 1996 believe, the average soldier fighting the LTTE does not want to be stuck in the Wanni for the next 20 years. These soldiers are far more attuned to the costs of war than most people and understand the need to reach out to the Tamils to prevent the kids of today from becoming the terrorists of tomorrow.

Although it would make sense for soldiers to read DW's posts, they would have nothing to gain from reading the mindless dribble which some people write here. Studies in military sociology have confirmed that soldiers' morale does not get boosted in the long run from listening to patriotic talk from non-combatants. In fact, such patriotic words can be detrimental to morale when the soldiers correctly believe that the speechmaker has nothing to lose from the fighting.

The best people to serve as morale-boosters are respected combat veterans who can actually relate to the soldiers.

"not something to start a winding argument about how to treat Tamils AFTER WE WIN THE WAR."

If you really think that the LTTE is on its way out, then it's not too soon to discuss this issue. However I would understand your point if you don't believe that the SLA can win.

"Where is the LTTE sucide bombers squad, I know for sure that they had 4000 at the start of this war??"

Your information is wrong. There aren't that many suicide bombers. The Black Tigers are not a separate corps within the LTTE but are generally integrated with the combat arms or intelligence wing.

"Apart from destroying the those ships, Why are we not capture weapons, relative to the land we capture?"

Because the LTTE is very good at moving their weapons away from threatened areas. However there have been exceptions where the SLA had cut off the Tigers and captured large loads.

"In reality, I am guessing that there are about 50, 000 carders still with LTTE.."

I wouldn't include the armed civilians in this number. They are next to useless in combat.

"Strong carder unit – 15, 000
---Highly trained Units 5000 - 6000
-----Charles Anthony Brigade 1000-1500
-----Imran Pandiyan
-----Ratha Regiment (DPU)
---Sea tigers – 1,500 - 2000.
---Black Tigers – 2,000 - 3, 000
---Child soldier – 5,000 - 6, 000
---Air Force - 25 - 50
"

You have overestimated the Black Tigers, and they and the Sea Tigers would fall under the "Highly trained units." Child soldiers are integrated in most combat units- the Leopard regiment (Siruththai Puligal) is supposedly comprised of children.

There are separate female units- Malathi and Sothiya regiments- which are the same size as Charles Anthony and Imran-Pandyan units.

There are the artillery, air defense, and anti-armour units. I don't know their numbers though (I had thought Radha regiment was the air defense group not DPU).

mano1000 said...

New Sri Lankan High commissioner to uk is a realy pussy? Shenuka was thousand times better in terms of competent & organization.
How come there is not a single Metro police ride even with so much evidence ?
Doesn’t matter whether he is SLFP supporter or not GOSL should seriously consider his roll in uk is worth while?

Rana said...

Ninja bro,

present Indian govt. does not worry about LTTE. What worrying them is political pressure coming from Tamil naadu and near future election.

They also know that majority of indians do not care much about SL or LTTE. however they want TN backing to secure present govt and any future possiblities.

Therefore we need to play with them the game. do not forget, if India to force SL internatiol communities can't do much, not even China and Pakis.

We need to help present Indian govt. in order to get help from them. Strategies, tactics and diplomacy has to prevail with India at all cost to see this war through.

Shouting, insulting, condemnation and turning our backs will not help at all.

If you need something from somebody you should know how to get it.

Am I right or wrong?

wijayapala said...

Black Panther,

"We, I believe should not waste time celebrating the end of terrorism but start building a new nation as soon as the war is over."

It's ok to celebrate when the LTTE is defeated as long as we have a plan to reintegrate the Tamils into mainstream Sri Lankan society. If the Tamils don't celebrate, then we haven't won.

Rana said...

Wijayapala,

Possible victory or end of war is no way near yet. Still LTTE is fighting hard and have cadres to continue fighting for months.

Therfore we don't need to discuss victory march yet. The most interesting thing is how battle is going to change and progress or retreat by either party will be.

This is the most exciting phase, the final game. 100$ Question is Can LTTE survive for the 5th eelam war or not. Lets solve the problem at hand first.

No body wants to continue this war more than necessary, losses are great. We all must see that LTTE is finish once and for all. That is the most important thing right now.

wijayapala said...

DW,

I had mentioned before that the LTTE's artillery maestro is Bhanu, not Theepan. Perhaps you had missed it.

Theepan was Special Commander of the Charles Anthony Special Regiment during Jayasikurui, and he had a lot of experience in command in the Kilinochchi area during Sath Jaya and Unceasing Waves II. Later he led the construction of the LTTE's fortifications in the Elephant Pass region and successfully defended against Agni Kheela.

Defence Column said...

Suicide bomber visited Gen Janaka during campaign?

Defencewire said...

rana,

Did you hear about the overrunning of the 2nd LTTE FDL at Akkarayan several days ago?

Did you also hear, several days ago, what i learnt through personal experience, that Kokavil is susceptible to flash floods? Did any of these journalists tell you that?

Defence Column said...

Lankan DPL offensives woefully lacking where it is needed most

Bhairav said...

[The actual race began when your beloved 'peace dove' Thavachelva ranted of a bloody bath for the 'sinhala' army if it sets foot on wanni soil.]

TCelvan set the tone for rest of LTTE leaders for how to be loose mouth, and it was evident from the VP's maveerar speech of last year. What he said in his last speech and what has followed so far are total contradictions from each other. If LTTE want to regain the confident of global Tamils, they have to do lots of home work. Whatever it is,the bubble of VP as a great military genius is broken by this current SLA military push.

Moshe Dyan said...

GE,

"India can't put too much pressure on Lanka, cause it will cause Lanka to move in deeper into China's fold.

For India, its future supremacy in the Indian Ocean is at stake."


100% true.

but these are INDIAN concerns NOT the politicos DIRECT concerns. unfortunately as in SL, the two have parted which is very bad for india as a nation.

they should realise this.

SL playing its diplomatic cards carefully.

gota has been to russia and got their support. russia is india's MAIN defence partner, still. and this is a good move.

alternatively gota could have gone to china. but then things become sour.

but if india still insists on interfering, which seems VERY LIKELY, unfortunately, MR, GR or BR should visit china.

political interference is same as military interference.

what the fcuk india wants a political settlement? it is already there isn't it???? the fcuking 13th amendment.

what more india wants???

anyway SL cannot give political solutions to satisfy india. political solutions should satisfy ONLY sri lankans. democratically, the sri lankan political majority (not based on race).

Defence Column said...

Govt ready for talks with Tamil moderates

Moshe Dyan said...

i request patriots and sakkiliyas not to talk about 'celebrations' now. we have to mourn if things don't go right at this juncture.

what a foolish idea to bring this celebrations crap here????

Defence Column said...

Unveiling true colours of Tigers

Defence Column said...

Buoyed forces in final thrust

මොරටු සමන් - MoratuSaman said...

Moshe

"i request patriots and sakkiliyas not to talk about 'celebrations' now. we have to mourn if things don't go right at this juncture."

hahaha...he..he...heh...

I am kinda in a mourn mode due to not enough Ltte sakkili harvesting

Defence Column said...

Heroes for ever-Foiling LTTE penetration in Omanthai

Defence Column said...

LTTE resorts to gas warfare as fighting escalates

Defence Column said...

LTTE resorts to gas warfare as fighting escalates

Defence Column said...

May Lanka succeed in destroying LTTE

Defence Column said...

Tamil Nadu's tantrums and TNA treachery undermine the minorities of Sri Lanka.

hemantha said...

"The decision not to cooperate with the EU ‘investigation’ was taken on Wednesday and by Thursday, the Sri Lankan ambassador in Brussels had conveyed to the European Commission that Sri Lanka would not subject itself to any investigation by the EU because it was inconsistent with our national sovereignty and self respect as a nation. The position was that the absolute maximum that Sri Lanka would gain in terms of reduced tariffs to the EU if the GSP+ concession were to be retained would be 150 million USD per year and that too would not in perpetuity but for just three years more. It was simply not worth compromising on national sovereignty for this kind of money. Given the kind of statements that were emanating from the EU, it was obvious that there was prejudice against Sri Lanka and the ‘investigation’ would have been made use of as a forum to propagate views against the Sri Lankan government."

Political Column-The Island

History said...

wijayapala,

It is a long answer you have given there.. Thank you very much for taking time to write that.. check with my answers and let me know if you do not agree ..

/*
If soldiers actually read this blog then your suggestion theoretically would make sense. As it turns out, the soldiers are busy fighting in the Wanni and don't have time to play keyboard warrior.
*/

Yes, the Soldiers may not visit.. But still my suggestion is theoritically valid, because the moral of a soldier is tightly linked to their family members, relatives and also the people of Sri Lanka..

Again if you are not sure, I can give you my word, soldiers (some SLAF pilots) do visit this blog..

/*
Contrary to what half-witted expatriates who compare Kilinochchi 2008 to World Cup 1996 believe,
*/

No argument mate..

/*
The average soldier fighting the LTTE does not want to be stuck in the Wanni for the next 20 years.
*/

May be 20 years is little too much, but at least for next 10 year you will have figting..

wana more.. then read - long rangers owe the future. That analysis look right to me..

/*
Although it would make sense for soldiers to read DW's posts, they would have nothing to gain from reading the mindless dribble which some people write here.
*/

You Speak For You

/*
The best people to serve as morale-boosters are respected combat veterans who can actually relate to the soldiers.
*/

You mean better than a mother or a father of a soldier too?? unlikely ..

/*
If you really think that the LTTE is on its way out, then it's not too soon to discuss this issue. However I would understand your point if you don't believe that the SLA can win.
*/

It is said first thing is first. As it stands today, that is not the top priority, at least in my list. May be you can talk about the TN factor.

/*
Your information is wrong.
*/

May be, then what are the right numbers? I can link more of these figures to some sources on the net. If you say wrong, then so me the facts too..

/*
Because the LTTE is very good at moving their weapons away from threatened areas.
*/

You mean LTTE knows SLA military plan? I don't think so..

/*
I wouldn't include the armed civilians in this number. They are next to useless in combat.
*/

They too have guns, and they can fire bullet at you . So I don't think you can ignore them??

/*
"Strong carder unit – 15, 000
---Highly trained Units 5000 - 6000
-----Charles Anthony Brigade 1000-1500
-----Imran Pandiyan
-----Ratha Regiment (DPU)
---Sea tigers – 1,500 - 2000.
---Black Tigers – 2,000 - 3, 000
---Child soldier – 5,000 - 6, 000
---Air Force - 25 - 50"

You have overestimated the Black Tigers, and they and the Sea Tigers would ....
*/

I may be wrong, agree, but then what are the right numbers?

/*
There are the artillery, air defense, and anti-armour units. I don't know their numbers though
*/

That mean there are even more..

/*
(I had thought Radha regiment was the air defense group not DPU).
*/

DPU is Ratha..

About Bhanu.. you are spot on.. I think DW got it wrong

mboi said...

iqbal athas, the so-called 'defence analyst' isn't ashamed to admit he got his info from wikipedia lol

Rana said...

DW,

Ok, Ok, I don't want to say you bad! That is why come to this blog every day 10 or 20 times. In fact6 you are better tyhan most of others.

However, we will need more as battle progress. We want to read everything in all fronts. I also know that nobody can feed as much as we want b'cause we are so hungry.

And don't forget mate, I thanked you for what you did!!!!

Hey other guys:

Iam on to the last 60 pages of "A Cause Untrue"' by "David Blacker".

What a book!!! its pace is as fast as Fedrick Forsyth, plot is as good as Jack Higgins, readability is not second to Wilbur Smith or Dan Brown.

Except some prining errors and too much sophistication artificially created for SLDF and LTTE with unrealistic actions on foriegn soils, this is a good thrilling yarn.

Recommended for anybody who loves a good thriller.

David Blacker:

We are waiting for second book on the final 4th eelam war.

Thanks mate.

Rana said...

hemantha,

It is a good time to teach a f***ing lesson to those basterds in EU. We do not have go on our knees to get f***ing money from them. They have no right to dictate terms on our internal affairs.

In short, what SL govt did is excellent. Now we can see the actual colour of EC manuers.

Iam sure, they will feel the kick in the arse and think twice before they do that sort of things again.

Defence Column said...

Troops Pierce LTTE's last ditch earth bund in South of Kilinochchi

GoldenEagle said...

Moshe

Yeah, already the Russians are ready to supply us military equipment.

Russia is facing a hard time paying their bills with the global drop in oil prices. They will take any sort of income if oil prices remain low.

On the issue with China, the name of the game is HAMBANTOTA.

People use to think that the most strategic port in Lanka is Trinco, but this is wrong. The prize bird is the Hambantota harbor.

India and RAW are so worried that the Chinese will build a naval base in Hambantota. If this were to happen, it would mean Chinese supremacy in the Indian ocean. Already the Chinese are building advanced warhips and they are technologically ahead of the Indian navy.

In a scenario like this, if war or tensions break out between China and India, then the Chinese navy can block all the vital sea trade routs in the Indian ocean that India needs. This scares India.

From a geopolitical prespective, Lanka could turn out be the most important sector of the "Great Game" waged by the rising asian giants.

nemesis said...

Goldeneagle,

Spot on mate, our troubles are far from over. Things will heat up in the coming months and years and the PLAN flexes her might in to the Indian ocean with submarine bases already in Pakistan and Burma a if a base is set up (which he Gov. has already rejected) in in SL would give them a "blockade capability" around India. Which makes SL a hot cake for every one.

We (Sri Lanka) would be looked upon as an "outpost/un sinkable air craft carrier" like the brits saw Malta, Gibraltar and Falklands & Taiwan, Guadalcanal & Diego Gracias was to US in the many wars of the past.

Cheers

Moshe Dyan said...

GE,

agree without reservations.

rana,

i don't think that's a good decision, mate. there are few issues.

1. there is no 100% co-relation between getting GSP+ again (or not)and the investigation

2. also no 100% co-relation between SL losing sovereignty and the investigation.

but the need for foreign currency in the SHORT TERM is CRITICAL. if we lose GSP+ on human rights issues, that will set a very nasty pattern against SL. we als lost the chance to get into the UNHRC. its te total effect that bites us.

although not so successful, previous 3 governments also had wars but didn't lose too many economic concessions due to that. SLFP is anyway not very good at the economy and losing GSP+ will have very nasty short term implications.

the fact is that SL cannot survive without concessions, aid and grants until it stands in its own feet. that will come many years after we defeat the LTTE.

Srilankan said...

MOSHE,
your right mate.However lets not get carried away with garbage in Newspapers unless we see proof.Newspaper articles only serve themselves.Are we baseing our entire analysis on a newspaper(s) article i wonder?.

Rana said...

Moshe,

I agree with you 100% mate. However, if GOSL has said no to the investigation and decided not to go along with EU, there has to be reason. Our govt will not loose any type foriegn aid or concessions that easily. I am sure there is something deep down which we do not know about the whole saga.

Robert Evans mockery thing and all other diplomatic efforts done during last few months may have given a indication to govt, no matter what we do, we are going to loose it. iF that is the case why cooperate.

On the other hand they also need us, I agree that we need them more than they need us too.

If we can clear this miliaery thing quickly and final mop up activities may go into years. Tyhen war expenditure will stop. We can boost up our production and tourism will boom due to the fact publicity and last 25 years no go zone etc etc.

Human right violations and IC cry will increase with the mopping up operations. Don't think even the war is by 03 months mopping up can go on for years. We will never be in EU good books untill all tigers are dead. Even with that we may need another couple of years to win confidence and support again.

So EU matter is dead and gone, we may have to look elsewhere.

One good thing is western allies in economic trouble and hence all form of aids will dry up any way.

Any way nice to hear from you brother!!

Defence Column said...

Rs. 21b. bailout package if garment industry stripped of GSP+

Defence Column said...

Lanka not an R2P case

Defence Column said...

Rift in the Chennai film industry over Rameshwaram rally to save Rajiv's Killers

Panhinda said...

LTTE is struggling to find strength to maintain defenses. Battling on multiple fronts simultaneously and blocking movement between theaters has been effective. Is there something more we can do?

They have to rest their best fighters at one time or another. There is an opportunity here to diminish their fighting effectiveness by spoiling the time they have for resting. This means sustaining offensives with the same level of intensity 24 hours by dividing the day into 8 hour shifts perhaps. We also fire artillery at random intervals in the night. We spoil their sleep and get them when they are soft suffering from insomnia.

Moshe Dyan said...

srilankan, rana and other patriots,

mates, sorry for going off track.

$200 million bailout for the garment industry means 0.7% of the GDP EVERY YEAR!!

if not given after 2009, that loss will be absorbed by the industry and the net result is still the same (or worse).

war has costed 0.5% of the GDP according to calculations.

in that sense losing GSP+ will be ECONOMICALLY worse than the war. (only taking into account DIRECT and CONNECTED INDIRECT losses).

losing GSP+ b4 finishing the war means..............................i leave it to your imagination.

MayilRavana මයිල් රාවන said...

Thanks DW,
Respect the need to keep sensitive information from public eye. But we can read between the lines and the end game is apparent.
For same reasons I have decided not to post anything about profiling suicide cadres on a public forum.

Moshe,
I would tend to agree with the GSL decision to not pander to ongoing EU insults for the sake of money. The SL expatriates are waiting to invest in the island and the Government should be eyeing that instead.

Regarding the Government moves to bail out the garment sector, this is probably appropriate strategy to help the garment workers at present. However, in the long term, the Government must consider if the Garment sector has a goo enough future. Government money may be better spent on retraining workers in areas which may bring more diversity to Sri Lanka's industrial sector and also meet domestic needs (e.g. electronic industry for Defence related production).

Even though large countries like India and China will cushion the effect of the fall of the Western Stock Markets, the predictions are that they (particularly China) will turn more towards their own domestic market. Whatever the case, these countries are already destroying their environment and the future health of their people.

A small country like Sri Lanka (partly because of the War) has not done this as yet. Yet it boasts a highly competitive Educational and Health industry. It appears to me that Sri Lankans are already wealthy enough without having to be as greedy as people of Western Nations. It is a very efficient nation which does much with its small economy.

What it should do is to continue to diversify its industrial base without being a coolie to mass produce items for the Western World. Meet ones own needs first and then think about trade. For example there should be an emphasis on all defence related industries from high-tech electronics and clothing (can apply to a double market; if quality is good enough for defence then good enough for civilian use) to Ship, vehicle and aircraft assembly and construction.

While I have heard about how producing material within the country would be more expensive than importing, this is only a short term problem. In the long term it will save billions if not trillions of dollars. In the short term invite expatriates to invest in worthwhile projects. Even if the expatriates invest in low-risk/short term yield industries, that will free up Government Capital to invest in high-risk long term yield industries.
This is a strategy that the Government should be vigorously pursuing.
BTW, I think it is also good strategy to develop a network of alliances with countries such as Brazil as diversity of trade relations will pay off in the long term.
We should not under-estimate the thinking of Sri Lankan leaders even if it appears that they may have personal benefits in pursuing such strategies.

To read text below, you need to install fonts suggested by Sinhalabloggers:

ෙමාරටු සමන් යාලුවා,
සිංහල අකුරැ දකින ෙකාට හිත ෙබාෙහාම සැහැල්ළුයි.
අෙප් වීර ෙසායුරන්ට ෙම් ෙපාඩි ෙඳයත් ෙලාකු ඇති.

Rana said...

Moshe,

1. We didn't lost it, but some factions of EU is trying to deny it.

2. We turn our back to them only after seeing it is not coming our way.

3. Thare are other sources to tap.

4. If we beat LTTE militarily we can save lot.

5. Tourism will bring hell of a lot.

6. ther will be new industry coming up "export our military expertice to other wealthy countries". this can be huge market. We are the world experts in beating one of the best terra: organisation, if not the best.

Think positive mate, negative thinking will not do any good for us in present situ.

Panhinda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Panhinda said...

Refugee landing on their shores is a big problem for EU. With global economic slowdown and people out of work will increase refugees into EU. They have to chose between alleged HR violations with a real danger of refugees flooding into EU.

We have to drive home the fact unless LTTE is not military defeated and unless GSP+ is renewed, EU can expect more refugees. I don't think Bollogama is the guy to do this properly. I am not impressed by Palitha Kohona's communication skills either.

lankaputhra said...

Subject: An eye-opening photography exhibition by SLAT-UK
To:


An eye-opening photography exhibition highlighting the atrocities committed by the Tamil Tiger Terrorists against our beloved motherland during the past three decades and the impact such acts have had on democracy will be held in London.

Date: 22nd October 2008
Time: from 10.00 am to 6.00pm
Ven: CSSC, Sports Centre, 1, Chadwick Street, Recreation Centre, Westminster, London SW1P 2EP

Organised by Sri Lankans Against Terrorism (SLAT)- UK

Due to the entry restrictions of the venue, please register your name with SLAT-UK to obtain invitations for admission.

More Info
www.sesatha.co.uk/Events/
20081022_Photography_Exhibition

SESATHA web UK

silentknight said...

guys,

i think that we should skirt around kili, anti-clockwise and take paranthan 1st....much the same way nachhikuda was skirted and flanked.

this way, we create more preasure on kili, cut off escape to the north, cutoff shifting of cadre @ pooneyrn and trap them as well.
let them hang onto kili for a bit, we move through the less ressistive areas and flank kili, @ the same time, cutting off 3 other options for the ltte.
kili will fall, but at a time we have more trumps in our hands.

Reo.Mag.Forever said...

Hemantha quoted The Island

"The position was that the absolute maximum that Sri Lanka would gain in terms of reduced tariffs to the EU if the GSP+ concession were to be retained would be 150 million USD per year and that too would not in perpetuity but for just three years more."

This is not correct, its not that simple to calculate the gain of GSP+ as 150 Mn Euros for three years and make a decision. GSP + concession covers nearly 7200 products, commodities and the direct & indirect benefits we will enjoy -->>if it is extended will be a lot higher than 150 Mn Euros. To make it simple - you can look at our total value of industrial exports (covered under GSP+) to Europe --> that is the amount in danger, the total export revenue, at least 90% of it.

GSP+ is one of the main elements that makes us competitive in the EU market with far-less priced products & commodities that come from other countries such as China. (two thirds of that amount is coming from garments) If we lose the concession, we will not be competitive anymore. In the product categories that we are competing, price is the most important element in buyers decision making process.

"It was simply not worth compromising on national sovereignty for this kind of money. Given the kind of statements that were emanating from the EU"

and Rana said

"It is a good time to teach a f***ing lesson to those basterds in EU. We do not have go on our knees to get f***ing money from them. They have no right to dictate terms on our internal affairs.

In short, what SL govt did is excellent. Now we can see the actual colour of EC manuers."

First, EU did not come behind us offering the concession, we applied for it and now we have applied for an extension. To be eligible for the facility, we must ratify and effectively implement 16 core conventions on human and labor rights and 7 (out of 11) of the conventions related to good governance and the protection of the environment and at the same time we must "commit" ourselves to ratifying and "effectively implementing" the international conventions which we have not yet ratified. In any case we must ratify all the 27 conventions by 31 December 2008 ---> requirements are very clear and actions to be taken are also very clear except for the part about showing commitment on "effectively implementing" the conventions that are not ratified, as yet.

The "investigation" by EU external trade is to ascertain those elements and to make sure that SL is in compliance with the criteria that needs to be satisfied for extending the GSP+ concession. --> their maim argument is based on the fact that EU Trade commission is responsible & answerable to it's tax payers in EU - who will lose out on the concession, so technically these "audits" and "investigations" are carried out on behalf of them. A good argument which we can not challenge. Do we have a good argument against this when opposing to investigations ?

Now would such investigations infringe our sovereignty ? yes of course ! But that is part of the whole GSP system. When UNCTAD first recommended such a generalized preferential system in 1968, EU was the first to jump in with GSP scheme. the "plus" part came in later to "help" the countries that are with poorly diversified economies that makes them dependent and vulnerable. But actually, part of the real objective was to control and create dependency in such countries. When "they" gave independence to their colonies, they formulated a better, more effective and "transparent" mechanism to continue their control and supremacy over them (those of you who have read Confessions of an Economic Hit man & A game as old as empire will know what im trying to say here)

So should we go on calling the EU "bastards" ? no, there's no point cos we clearly "accepted" and "agreed" to "regularly be monitored and reviewed" by EU on implementation of the requirements when we applied for the extension of GSP+ We asked for it!!( because we need the concession ) The very reason why EU has included a specific section on the conventions that are pending-ratification is to make the process 50% unclear for them to have the right to make the decision based on their findings of the investigation - the process is unclear as long as we have not ratified the required, if we have ratified, they still want to make sure the there is effective implementation - One way or the other they will have control over us and the things we do. If the process is clear, we can implement( at least technically ) and request for the concession but such system will give no power to them - Agree or not, most of those decision makers in SL do not understand this mechanism, if they do, they would be arguing based on the conventions that we have already ratified and implemented --> arguments based on facts --> arguments that will at least force EU to be a bit more fair in their "investigation"

Again, Calling them bastards, protesting and issuing statement is useless as long as we are not addressing the core issues, this is why EU doesn't even bother replying to most of the statements issued by our gvt on GSP+ & EU stance.

Summery - We badly need GSP+, specially at this point in time with the global financial crisis. We are facing the danger of losing our market share in the two biggest markets in the world. We have very few options left, I hope MR will push those idiots who decide on the trade, monitory and fiscal policy of SL to make the right decisions at the right times, we need to decide OUR stance on GSP+ and get in to action now (no time for detailed strategic plans, we did not do that when we had time) We also need to get our private sector to be ready and work on their productivity than on "bail out plans" Even though they are all in for capitalism, when it comes to losses they all turn to the government for help. If we do not do that, we will lose all the gains we made in multiple fronts during the past three years - That would be most costlier than losing GSP+

bungu said...

I agree with Reo Mags comments above. We need GSP +.

Total gain on tax concessions seems to be miscalculated by our brainy guys. We could loose EU market totally or partially.

People who issue statements are not going to suffer because they feed on SL tax payers.

Reo.Mag.Forever said...

MayilRavana,

"I would tend to agree with the GSL decision to not pander to ongoing EU insults for the sake of money. The SL expatriates are waiting to invest in the island and the Government should be eyeing that instead."

Losing the GSP+ and attracting investments from SL expatriates are two completely different issues. If we lose GSP+, the implications will be immediate and on will be on almost everything, everywhere. Losing a huge portion of the regular forex income coupled with US recession can send us back to "paan polim" if not properly managed. On the SL invetors, it will take at least two to three more years for the SL expats to come here and invest - that would still be no match to what we will lose but still if we consider that for the sake of the argument, on what industries will they invest ? If they are gong to invest in traditional industries, they will still face the problem when selling since the main problem has not been solved, if they invest on new industries, how long will it take them to take off, grow and replace what we lost ? Will our country & work force be ready for a new type of industry/s in two-three years ?

"Regarding the Government moves to bail out the garment sector, this is probably appropriate strategy to help the garment workers at present. However, in the long term, the Government must consider if the Garment sector has a goo enough future. "

SL government can not bail out the garment industry if we lose GSP+. Its just talk - Can we cut down tax from out end to level our prices with competitors ? We can not and we don't have such a tax structure to be eliminated anyway. Even if we had, doing so will only shrink govt's slice, what will the country get out of it ? In my opinion, the only solution is to go "lean" and be more productive --> if properly implemented,our garment sector can save between 20% - 30% by reducing wastes in their value streams, operating systems & processes and pass the benefits to their customers and be competitive --> that percentage of saving to EU will be more than what we get them through GSP+ concession. Proper business process improvements and waste reduction in systems can bring in break-trough capacity which will further create value. This is what our industry should be working on and that is the only option we have at the moment to create immediate results - but do we have enough human resources in SL to archive such results --> That i dont know but what i know is that results are immediate.

"Government money may be better spent on retraining workers in areas which may bring more diversity to Sri Lanka's industrial sector and also meet domestic needs (e.g. electronic industry for Defence related production)."

My guess is, Except for the management tiers, all others im traditional industries have very little knowledge to contribute to high-tech industries. Training and making them will take a long time and a huge cost? Semi conductor business is different to stitching shirts, we will need lot more than precision technology.

"Even though large countries like India and China will cushion the effect of the fall of the Western Stock Markets, the predictions are that they (particularly China) will turn more towards their own domestic market."

China has a huge soverign wealth fund, even though its value has depreciated by a tiny fraction becaause of the US disaster, they are so strong that they have the ability to endure a very long period compared to us. On top of that, they are almost self sufficient except for oil and few other commodities - oil prices have gone down more than 50% and it will go further down.

"Whatever the case, these countries are already destroying their environment and the future health of their people."


True

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

There is no point locking the stables after the horses have bolted.
Throughout its rule, the Rajapakse Govt has gone out of its way to offend all and sundry (with exception of some rogue states), and treated saner advice with contempt( if not death).
A similar attitude pervades the blogs among intellectuals.Now all the eggs are in one basket--war . If there's no clearcut win MR&co can expect to be torn to pieces by the same crowd now egging it on ( a la CBK--who is described as a *unt here, and JCP--humiliated even in death).

Single said...

Sun Tzu,
You may be right mate.

India come in Helicopters an take VP with red carpets. SL will Bending to TN Film Makers pressure and stop war ASAP. MR will be isolated from world/local politics. RW will be next president. Tamil Eelam will be soon. Sweet dreams...

One word of advice mate, When you wake up, please don't forget to pee..

Single said...

Guyz,
According to one TN politician (as per TamilNut), Even Federal is not enough and now they need much higher powers.

With LTTE so powerful, nice time to bargain (LOL!)

If TN care so much about SL tamils, Why they dont take all SL tamils there and live in harmony? (big country, same language, better economy...). And don't forget to take all dispora too.

75% tamil population in Colombo and south. So what the heck this genocide problem? Why govt not telling this simple fact to world? If TN don't want to arrest Tamils, ask LTTE not to sent suciders to Colombo.

And when LTTE kills Sinhalese in busses, politicians where is the bloddy Indian politicians...?

Guyz..can some one tell how much economically we depend on India? And how much Indian industries depend on SL market?

Reo.Mag.Forever said...

Moshe said,

"alternatively gota could have gone to china. but then things become sour.

but if india still insists on interfering, which seems VERY LIKELY, unfortunately, MR, GR or BR should visit china."

In my opinion, If they do that, it will be another historical mistake.

JR made a similar mistake when he came in to power - he tried get closer to US and moved from India thinking US will come in to bail him out if things go wrong (another miscalculation). Like it or not, most Indians in their messed up heads consider SL as another one of their states, it was the same back then, they did not like what was happening. Offended by JR's moves and few stupid statements, Gandhi's decided to support the tamil tigers to teach JR a lesson. There were other reasons and pressure from South but in my opinion JR's actions were the main that made Ghandhi's go against us. so hard.

However the rest is history and the Indian love for the tamil tigers ended when they had to take Rajive home in pieces.

We need to understand this Indian mentality and South Indian forces if we are to win this game - we can not afford to fight another front right now and certainly not India !!

right now, North India is only pretending to be "concerned" to satisfy the South - they will not come back with "parippu" this time but if they feel that we are becoming a threat by getting closer to Pakistan & China, they will rock the boat - that we do not want to happen at this point.

"what the fcuk india wants a political settlement? it is already there isn't it???? the fcuking 13th amendment."

Yeah

"what more india wants???"

They want us to implement the sections that we have not implemented yet ( Land, security etc )

Reo.Mag.Forever said...

According to Sun Tzu's disciple's "intellectual" thinking,

Actions of a sovereign nation in the best interest of its people = Actions to offend all and sundry

Panhinda said...

http://tinyurl.com/6x7s93

LTTE releases propaganda video. Footage contain images of alleged Madhu bus bombing. This was widely speculated to be staged by LTTE for propaganda. Just a day after, Nadesan wrote to UN asking them to intervene.

LKDOOD said...

Several ministers, MPs offer to quit on Sri Lanka Tamil issue

LINK

Kithul said...

Dear Mr President

Please take the the saner advise offered (voluntarily) by the disciple with the sexually transmitted disease and stop killing terrorists, let them kill innocent civialians, plese give them the eelam they want and let our country go to the dogs...

STD, the disciple who never learns - take single's (in)sane advise and pee when you wake up.

LKDOOD said...

LTTE seeking help of Indian leaders to escape defeat:Gotabhaya

LINK

LKDOOD said...

DMK supporting a terrorist organisation: Janata Party

LINK

Ali said...

Rana Dude

Where did u get the book(cause untrue) from . Was it the vijitha yapa ? the shipping was mare expensive than the book it self

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

" Actions of a sovereign nation in the best interest of its people"

reo,
I dont consider labelling UN, Ban ki moon, Louise arbour, Gareth Evans, SLMM, IIGEP, HRC, NGOs etc etc by various names to be in 'best interest of its people'.
Or killing journalists, social workers, aid workers, critics, opposing MPs, Tamil civilians etc etc using death squads.
Its coming back to haunt the GoSL.

thambala said...

razor lk,
Good points good points!

Army commandos and STF should be involved here in my opinion too. But a mix of SLA should be there as well at field commanding level also. I think this should be tactic in taking all towns.

Keep writing..

Defence Column said...

Indo-Lanka ties vital to defeat terrorism

Defence Column said...

Bomber’s final call from posh security zone

Reo.Mag.Forever said...

Sun Tzu's disciple,

When "UN, Ban ki moon, Louise arbour, Gareth Evans, SLMM, IIGEP, HRC, NGOs etc etc" were supporting the tamil tiger "cause ", Government had to stand against what they were doing --> You call that offending ?

Even though "SL government" did not label them as you have suggested, in my opinion, they have the right to name and label such elements that support terrorism (directly 0r indirectly ) as "terrorists" as much as the west reserve their rights to label countries as "rogue states" on their own will - does that offend "all and sundry" ?

"killing journalists, social workers, aid workers, critics, opposing MPs, Tamil civilians etc etc using death squads."

You are now talking about the tigers, pistol gangs and the suicide bombers (but you need to add Rajiv, Premadasa and the thousands more who you have missed out in the list )

thambala said...

What a bloody annoying nila messa is this? Shoo shoo ketha messa!

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

reo mag,

One cannot wake up those who pretends to sleep.

Sam Perera said...

STD,

"One cannot wake up...."

Yes, look at a mirror to find a one. I guess that you are talking about rabid LTTE terrorists supporters like yourself.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

SP did I hurt you baby? ;))

The Australian: Pakistan forced to scrounge for cash

Sam Perera said...

STD,

"Did I hurt...."

Yes, but trillion times less that your butt got hurt by Sri Lankan warriors. I heard that Velu smuggled a few tons of KY-Gel for his pains. May be you too can have.

Infinity said...

Strategic Vannerikulam Finally Falls to Troops
http://www.army.lk/morenews.php?id=17332

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

Oh so sad to hear your butt hurt a trillion times by your warriors baby... try using a little of the KY-j you say you are smuggling for Velu..oo poor little SP..go to momma

Shan said...

the STD Nila Mesaa is still lurking around

'nila massoth Kotinta Kade Yanawqa bola'

Malin said...

Well SLA seems to be on the move again after quite peroid. Guess all the hard work done in the previuos weeks are paying off.

Sam Perera said...

STD,

Your brain also seems to be fried in the recent multi barrel attacks. You used to have the ability to come up with a semi-coherent argument. Now it has become a mere babble. It seems that your ability think is directly proportional to SLA distance from Kilinochchi. May be it the time to stop dreaming about the never land Eelam. You may even loose your janitor job sson if you don't stop dreaming.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

ooo dear little SP is getting upset now;))

go complain to momma poor dear..tell who took ur icecream

lankanews said...

lankaenews report 45 sla Killed and 170 injured today.

DW, Do you have any updates regarding today's battle?

Sam Perera said...

STD,

Which STD attacked your brain. I heard that white hookers in Canada carry so many STDs.

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

ooo dear SP you are becoming incoherent.. bad bad boy visiting hookers already?... mommas naughty boy huh?

GoldenEagle said...

Moshe and Nemesis

The govt has plans to turn Hambantota into a transhipment port(over the course of 15 years) like Singapore, capable of handling 20 million containers per year. The revenue would be insane for small country like ours.

Wouldn't it be ironic if we give China a naval base in Hambantota. Then China has India BY THE BALLS. Imagine how India would feel? After creating the LTTE it ultimately came back to cost them their future supremacy in the Indian Ocean. Karma always gets the last laugh I guess.

out_sider said...

Sun Tzu's disciple said...

"A similar attitude pervades the blogs among intellectuals. Now all the eggs are in one basket--war."

As Sun Tzu wrote and I paraphrase - when you have your opponent in a position of disadvantage you do not give him the respite he requires. In sports as in war you finish them off. To show hesitation at this juncture is to show weakness. Too offer a ceasefire is to show insecurity. Now is the time for the LTTE to be relegated to the history texts.

hemantha said...

Moshe,
"$200 million bailout for the garment industry means 0.7% of the GDP EVERY YEAR!!
----------
war has costed 0.5% of the GDP according to calculations."

War cost $1700 million a year.

Reo.Mag.Forever,
We had GSP concessions just for 3 years. Our garment industry was doing just fine before that (for more than 20 years).

Defence Column said...

Fighting continues in the Western Kilinochchi battlefront

Defence Column said...

Strategic Vannerikulam Finally Falls to Troops

Srilankan said...

Moshe,
Lets wait and see bro.Lets wait and see..

Defence Column said...

A war within UNP ranks in support of war

hemantha said...

Regarding the relationship with India and China....

We should stick to good ethics. We should not resort to low tactics such as using one country against the other. Genuine friendliness towards the both would give us good dividends.

General Indian population and the press (outside Tamilnadu and Kerala) are on our side. We should have a faith in them and keep them informed.
And we have to make Big Indian political players to understand that if they behave recklessly then they are going to loose a genuine friend and otherwise they loose almost nothing.

Reo.Mag.Forever said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Reo.Mag.Forever said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Reo.Mag.Forever said...

Hemantha said,

"We had GSP concessions just for 3 years. Our garment industry was doing just fine before that (for more than 20 years)"

In case you did not know --> Sri Lanka and many other developing countries including Bangladesh were benefiting from Multi Fibre Arrangement (MFA)which governed the world trade in textiles and garments from 1974 to 2004. This scheme imposed quotas on the amount "developing countries" could export to developed countries and the system gave them almost a guaranteed shares of the world market. Back then, most Sri Lankans called it the "Quota system" and It expired on 31st January 2004.

The reason behind MFA was to allow developed countries to adjust themselves to imports from the developing world who has low labor costs and also prepare them for cheaper prices and competition. Millions of western workers lost their jobs since the introduction of MFA. However, during Uruguay rounds, GATT decided to take the textile industry under WTO and WTO, being the "defender of Free Trade" decided to abolish MFA by 2005. ( go to WTO and then to http://www.wto.org/English/tratop_e/texti_e/texintro_e.htm if you want to read more )

A little bit more in history, the then SL government desperately tried to to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with the US but failed miserably - It was a futile attempt anyway because WTO already had a ruling on it but our decision makers, as always, missed the core issue and wasted money on trips to US trying to get a "deal".

Then we got GSP+ --> thats how EU became more important than US market and that's how the industry survived. But industry growth rate to US plummeted within months after we lost the MFA in 2005, the value of exports to the US grew only by 3% percent in the first three quarters of that year when exports of China, India and Bangladesh grew by 55%, 24% and 10% respectively. Same will happen when we lose GSP+

Since 2005, more than 100 factories closed down and thousands lost jobs but we Sri Lankan's forget everything in what ... 3 years ? so again, We barely survived thanks to GSP+ for three years - Do you want me to get more statistics?

Now im going back to "We had GSP concessions just for 3 years ( now you know how we survived )Our garment industry was doing just fine ( you know that as well )before that (for more than 20 years)." --> Hope now you have a better understanding of the situation.

hemantha said...

Reo.Mag.Forever,
That's lot of information. Thank you.(As I always say, I have no knowledge of economics. So I can't add anything intelligent).

I think we are going to loose GSP plus. And we ought to think of a way to live with it. Mass scale war will end soon. I hope there would be new opportunities after that.

wijayapala said...

History,

Thanks a lot for your response.

"Yes, the Soldiers may not visit.. But still my suggestion is theoritically valid, because the moral of a soldier is tightly linked to their family members, relatives and also the people of Sri Lanka.."

Family members, friends etc.- people who are close to the soldiers, airmen, sailors, and police on combat duty have a far greater understanding of what's really going on than any dumb-ass expatriate cricket fan clown. I doubt whether most of the comments here matter at all to them, considering that they have to deal with a lot of hardship and fears which the average expatriate cannot even fathom (this goes especially true for the families of the ground pounders who have underprivileged situations).

If such people do visit this blog, then I encourage them not to read but rather to write about their experiences- how proud they are of their children in uniform, their honest concerns, both positive and negative comments on the government's ability to take care of them and so forth.

"May be 20 years is little too much, but at least for next 10 year you will have figting.."

Thank you for sharing Nirosh's insights.

If the SLA retakes all LTTE territory by the end of 2009, there will still be some survivors who will try to melt into the civilian population or escape through other means. At this point the nature of the war will change. Small-unit tactics may still be relevant, but not heavy artillery, SLAF strikes, or even RCLs when there's no enemy base or FDLs to hit.

This sort of low-level insurgency can be more difficult than the nature of the current fighting, because it is difficult to quantify/measure success. Although the costs may be less (in terms of lives and $$), it can be really debilitating to a military because there is often no end in sight. The govt will have to choose between trying to kill off the survivors or to bribe them into the mainstream like Karuna.

With the LTTE in a weaker position, it will not be able to recruit child soldiers and harrass the population the way it currently does. Ironically, being weak may allow the LTTE to get more popular and international sympathy. If the LTTE survivors believe that they have popular support, they will not give up fighting and it will take time to track them all down.

Nirosh mentioned LRRPs operating among the population, but the civilians will not offer support to Sinhala Special Forces if they perceive that the govt is anti-Tamil. This is the great problem that the US is facing. You have to win the population to your side, and this is where my friend's comments about reaching out to the Tamils will be relevant.

"You Speak For You"

Fair enough.

/*
The best people to serve as morale-boosters are respected combat veterans who can actually relate to the soldiers.
*/

"You mean better than a mother or a father of a soldier too?? unlikely ..
"

Usually the parents are not very eager to push their children into war- in this strict military sense family tends to be more of a liability than an asset in war (although family plays an extremely important role in demobilization after the war is finished). Desertion in the SLA has primarily been family-driven, NOT due to cowardice. Generally the soldier will hear that a parent is ill and then desert his unit to return home and look after the parent.

This current govt has done a much better job than previous govts in taking care of the "home front"- ensuring that soldiers' families get proper benefits and are taken care of. This is a far better investment of resources (compared to buying stuff like Mig-29s).

"what are the right numbers?"

I have to confess that I don't know the exact numbers, but there aren't thousands of Black Tigers. The number is between 100-500 but not as high as 1000.

/*
Because the LTTE is very good at moving their weapons away from threatened areas.
*/

"You mean LTTE knows SLA military plan? I don't think so..
"

No, that is not what I meant. Even without knowing the SLA's exact plans, the LTTE has a rough idea from which way the SLA is coming and has enough recon elements to determine the SLA's rate of approach. That is how the LTTE can move its weapons toward safer areas.

The LTTE's intelligence wing in the past had been very successful in getting SLA plans from corrupt officers. Even recently there was that one Major who had helped the LTTE plan the attacks against Fonseka and Uncle Gota (and Mahinda for some reason commuted his death sentence...). Nowadays however the SLA is relying less on centralized planning and more on putting more authority on subordinate commanders to achieve tasks ("mission orders"). This makes things tough for the LTTE because they can't bribe the entire SLA.

/*
I wouldn't include the armed civilians in this number. They are next to useless in combat.
*/

"They too have guns, and they can fire bullet at you . So I don't think you can ignore them??
"

With a few arty shells they scatter or get slaughtered, because they don't know proper cover/concealment techniques, and they don't have the physical fitness to be deployed in the field for long periods of time. Their only utility is spotting LRRPs.

Janaka Perera defeated the LTTE at Weli Oya in 1995 because one of these civilians was captured, leading his daughter (an LTTE fighter) to defect and spill the beans on the LTTE's plans to overrun Weli Oya.

DW could shed more light on the utility of Granny Brigade.

"I may be wrong, agree, but then what are the right numbers?"

Your numbers are mostly correct. The only major discrepancy was Black Tigers.

Charles Anthony Regiment
Jayanthan Regiment
Malathy Regiment (female)
Sothiya Regiment (female)

These are the mainstay of the LTTE's ground forces. Your estimate of 1000-1500 fighters each is probably correct as normally they have a full strength of 1500 fighters. However, Jayanthan unit is probably very understrength because it consists of eastern fighters.

Imran-Pandiyan Regiment- this is supposed to be the unit which guards LTTE leaders and defends key areas. Looks like they've been roped into more frontline fighting. I don't know its exact numbers but we can go with your above estimate.

Leopards- commando-type fighters which I mentioned before. I also don't know these numbers.

Arty, air defense etc.- these units would not be as manpower-intensive. I would guess 600-800.

Sea Tigers- your estimate is correct.

Political & intel divisions- probably number 1000 each. They are trained fighters but not as well-trained as the above units.

DW gave a total estimate of 12,000-15,000 hardcore fighters a year ago. This number may have gone down recently.

wijayapala said...

"MR can forget about reelection if there is any appearance of backing down or giving into Indian influence."

Who would the people vote for? Ranil???

wijayapala said...

"I think we are going to loose GSP plus. And we ought to think of a way to live with it. Mass scale war will end soon. I hope there would be new opportunities after that."

The "mass scale war" will not end soon. Assuming that Kilinochchi is taken by the end of the year, it will take at least another year to clear Mullaitivu (since it took an entire year to advance from Mannar to Pooneryn).

The EU's demand to "investigate" GSP+ was a way to prolong debate whether or not it should be revoked. Mahinda would have lost some face acceding to this, but we would have had GSP+ for however long the "investigation" would take (months, possibly even eyars). If what Reo.mag says is correct, then rejecting this "investigation" may have been the greatest blunder Mahinda had made.

hemantha said...

"The "mass scale war" will not end soon. "

It will. We do not need to split our hair on this. Waiting few months would be just enough. Crumbling would be faster than many think.

wijayapala said...

Reo.mag,

"Even though "SL government" did not label them as you have suggested, in my opinion, they have the right to name and label such elements that support terrorism (directly 0r indirectly ) as "terrorists" as much as the west reserve their rights to label countries as "rogue states" on their own will - does that offend "all and sundry" ?"

The govt has the right to do whatever it wants- but we'll have to live with the consequences. I think STD's point is that we've done pretty poorly on the diplomatic front and that this will eventually impact our ability to fight.

Rana said...

Wijayapala,

Your estimate of duration of 10 years to mop up remaining cadres is way too much after military with all teritory is taken back.

First after a heavy defeat, they require a will to fight. To have will they need a goal.

I don't think, they will have the same goal "eelam", if they loose heavily.

Then they need money, explosives and continuous supply of ammunitions etc.

They require much more difficult coordination.

I do not think they can go on for years and years, if they are to be beaten heavily.

My estimate is about year, if we can take the whole teritory and destroy their military assets.

Without a dream like state of their own (eelam) they can't fight. Pure hatred or vengence will not make people fight for long.

The other major factor is if army wins military battles, they will have high moral and they go after hidden units ferociosly and ruthlessly.

Panhinda said...

Despite the difficulty it may pose, the rejection of the investigation is the way to go. Allowing ourselves to the humiliation of being 'investigated' even though we have repeatedly stated the difficult position we are in is uncalled for. If they need, EU has ambassadors here who can give them a run down of the situation. The investigation by the EU is a foregone conclusion anyway.

The worse case scenario is 2 points off GDP growth which means we are back to hovering over 5%. A positive outcome may be a reduction in inflation when combined with lower energy costs. There are always better opportunities elsewhere. This is test of our character as a nation. I am happy we are not prostituting ourselves for anyone.

Sam Perera said...

rana,

The thought of total elimination of LTTE in an year after big operations is downright naive. We will need to maintain our military strength at 500,000 for at least 20 more years while introducing good measures to bridge the ethnic divide. Not having a powerful military is one of the biggest mistakes by SL politicians. We have to prepare for the war we don't want to fight.

Moshe Dyan said...

rana, mailravana, srilankan & reo mag forever,

thanks for your comments mates.


hemantha,
0.5% is the difference in GDP growth b4 and after the war.

agree with you mate on the annual defence budget which is COINCIDENTLY around the same as a % of the GDP!!!!!

Moshe Dyan said...

reo mag forever,

agree with most part.

USA had no military/defence value in SL at the time and they didn't even sell weapons to SL (a VERY VERY small amount of stuff was sold/granted).

but china is different.

1. china is one of the largest supplier of weapons. shortest leadtime. no conditions.

2. china has made STRONG gestures that it is interested in SL from a defence pov.

3. almost all other countries in the south asian region have entered into defence pacts with china (paki, bangla, nepal, myanmar)

4. SL already uses inro-china "discomfort" to get weapons from BOTH teams.

5. no one can stop a SL leader visiting china!!!!


"They want us to implement the sections that we have not implemented yet ( Land, security etc )"

not quite in my humble opinion. they want a political solution IN PLACE of the military solution PLUS implementation of the 13th amendment (or find another political solution). this is EXACTLY what LTTE, TNA, mano, jayalath and most tamils also want.

india will be STILL concenred IF SL implement it fully and continue with the war that hurts civilians.

i know india has been hypocratic. but implementing the 13 fully doesn't stop civilian sufferings.

but what SL does is (the only practical move) harp on a political solution and continue with the war.
the two are different.

hope you can see the subtle but important disparity?

Moshe Dyan said...

"Indian federal model insufficient to Sri Lanka, says senior leader of CPI"

fantastic.

now they want SL to move FURTHER from the 13 amendment, all political packages combined PLUS EVEN GO BEYOD INDIA'S FEDERAL MODEL!!!!

wow!!

i recon that the SL govt should IMMEDIATELY STOP this political solutions bullshit UNTIL the war is over.

hemantha said...

"Sri Lanka is perhaps the only country in the whole world that feeds and provides medical and surgical care to the very terrorist outfit that it is battling. A UNICEF Chief (James P. Grant) once described Sri Lanka's conflict as a civilised one in that the LTTE's wounded cadres were treated in state-run hospitals. Successive governments have been sending stocks of food and medicine to the LTTE-controlled areas knowing fully well that the LTTE siphons off most of them for military purposes. President Mahinda Rajapaksa recently said he was aware that about 70 per cent of the supplies sent to the Vanni went to the wrong hands. During the military operations in the East, an LTTE bunker fortified with a large number of bags of rice was found!"

Editorial-The Island

For more
http://www.island.lk/2008/10/20/editorial.html

Moshe Dyan said...

"Sri Lankan defense delegation to visit Pakistan


www.chinaview.cn 2008-10-19 21:45:54 Print

ISLAMABAD, Oct. 19 (Xinhua) -- A Sri Lankan defense delegation will visit Pakistan next week, according to official Associated Press of Pakistan (APP).

Led by Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse, the Sri Lankan delegation will hold meetings with Defense Secretary Kamran Rasool and other senior military and defense officials of Pakistan.

The delegation will arrive in Pakistan on Oct. 21 and the official visit will last for five days, reported APP."

russia, then paki,....
a good move. may be a prelude to a china visit?????????? GR & BR are visitng india now PURELY on a political/civil mission.

hemantha said...

Folks,
Please read the following news item. Our policy towards India should be based on the understanding of the real situation in India.

"New Delhi, Oct 19, 2008: Tamil Nadu and the rest of country seem bitterly divided on the issue of LTTE. The DMK’s obvious effort to put pressure on Indian government to stop Sri Lankan government offensive against LTTE has not gone down well with the rest of the country."

click here.

Constantin Demiris said...

Wijaypala,

[The "mass scale war" will not end soon. Assuming that Kilinochchi is taken by the end of the year, it will take at least another year to clear Mullaitivu (since it took an entire year to advance from Mannar to Pooneryn). ]

I doubt it. One way or another the Muhamale front too is going to open up. Once that is open and they come down it wont take that long to mop up the Mulativu area. but yeah, a low level insurgency like we see at yala and Monaragala will continue for years. But the cost will be a minimum. I mean like we see in the East there wont be shelling, airstrikes.

Anyways I am quite a fan of your postings. Very analytical. Keep it up.

Defence Column said...

Who needs enemies with ‘friends’ like these?

Defence Column said...

Granny wants Prabhakaran to disappear from the face of the earth!

Defence Column said...

India Must Give Proper Homage To Rajiv Gandhi

Rana said...

Sam P,

It is not the numbers, I am counting seriously. It is the will, dream, determination, courage needed to resort sprodic attackes.

First as I said if LTTE is beaten badly by the end of this war (looks most likely), how many cadres do you think resort to hit and run tactics.

1000 or 2000 or is it 5000. I don't think so. As soon as VP and Pottu is gone (either dead or run away), how many will abondoned the cause?

I will say many tiger cadres are already fed up with LTTE leadership. What they need is break to run.

Mark my word, if we are to beat them comprehesive manner militarily, most of remaing cadres will either surrender or hide them selves until it is safer to come out and joing with the mass.

That what I am counting on.
the other important factors after military defeat and lost teritory are:

1. No propaganda, brain washing and doctarine,

2. State media will show them what has realy happened during the past b'cause almost all youth whom are under 30 years do not know anything other than what the leadership has told to them.

3. Money, explosives, weapons, few are hidden here and there not enough to fight 10 years.

4. New recruits will be a problem.

5. No body will think about eelam again. It will prove to anybody that eelam is a impossible target.

I think that is enough to support my argument of shorter mop up ops.

Navindran said...

Hi, I heard ship loads of weapons are comming to Sri Lanka from Pakistan. Theres a saying you lose even when you win. A Pro LTTE newspaper said this. Unfortunately as per Mahindha mamas dictonary all the bad news should be pro LTTE.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/world/asia/19zardari.html?ref=asia

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — President Asif Ali Zardari returned from China late Friday without a commitment for cash needed to shore up Pakistan’s crumbling economy, leaving him with the politically unpopular prospect of having to ask the International Monetary Fund for help.

Khalid Tanveer/Associated Press
As Pakistan’s economy has tumbled, food prices have soared. A crowd sought food handouts at a shrine in Multan last week.
Pakistan was seeking the aid from China, an important ally, as it faces the possibility of defaulting on its current account payments.

With the United States and other nations preoccupied by a financial crisis, and Saudi Arabia, another traditional ally, refusing to offer concessions on oil, China was seen as the last port of call before the I.M.F

Amma Gahai/Gahawi said...

G’Day all, hope u all had a wonderful weekend and good to c u all active and having fun in DW.

Thanks for the clowns who worked hard to keep blogers entertained!

As u all know, I don’t like death and destruction but all the best to SLDF and safe rtn to loved ones after salvage the land from the Terrorists!

“One, who shamed to admit he is black, is fcuked! “- Drunken Master-

“Dancing in the rain.. Dancing in the rain.. Dancing in the monsoon…”-??

“Rain rain go away come again another day…”- lullaby

“Hitha mituru sulanga langa ene wahi walawata kiyan, ada nopamina undinayaka wahi ragena enalesin “– Victor Ratnayake

‘Raining men… halleluiah’ raining LTTE men… “- AG

“AG=Asithri=Kithul=Reo.Mag.Forever=………..=VP” – Erythromycin


This LTTE Die-ass-pora fool who was too shamed to admit he is black and has no guts to admit he is a terrorist sympathizer and once glorified Terrorist over ex. Army Servicemen working in Iraq now want ice cream and running to his momma Adeley and popa VP for a cuddle after blogers spotted his dumbness and got hackled!

This utter fool, who managed to get infected with Gonorrhea, first started muttering about defense, has now moved to International Relations.

The clever these fools think they are easier to expose their dumbness. This fool, banged a hooker and now waiting for her to lay an egg?? Ha ha ha … hey smarty…try a goose!

If u don’t know the horse, don’t bet! –an Aussies to a fool who punt on a Donkey-

“A sundry saner gone out of its way to offend a rouge state treated an intellectuals with eggs in one basket and a hooker torn to pieces by the crowd and humiliated even in the death. “ –Fool-

Make any sense??? Nope! Lol ….

So, anyone who is going to declare themselves as Defense Experts, Defense Analyst , International Relation adviser, a Doctor, a Lawyer, well known journalist, or a hooker, pls make sure u have covered ur wet spots! : ))
Have fun!
AmmaGahai

Panhinda said...

Once the current hedging contract expires, Oil can be bought at $60-$40 range. This is a big fall from past few months. This means oil subsidies can be replaced with others including garments if necessary for an interim period. The subsidies can remain until fat is trimmed or switched to other viable industries. Subsidies should only be a short term tool for industries to make the transition or become profitable in their own accord by increasing productivity and becoming efficient.

Lower fuel costs and the depreciating dollar means electricity need not need to be subsidised for the consumer either. There are a few power generators coming on line this year and Nochacolai next year? This means costly diesel engines will go saving a few dollars there.

Cost savings are there if one looks at things proactively. Years of socialist inept policies have left a lot of fat that can be trimmed from other enterprises as well.

Rana said...

Well, I had a good look at the latest FDL from Nachci to Nayaru:

1. Nachci to Iranamadu horzontal line.

2. Tannimurippukulam to Nayaru another horizontal line.

3. rest in the middle is like the letter "V".

Now we have intense fighting going in both horizontal lines. Our casualties are higher than normal due to earth bunds and cities we are targeting is so important to tigers.

Is this the correct strategy? All propaganda about kissin
Kili, 4km to Kili, 2kMm to Kili etc etc making our external enemies like tamil naadu nervous. Is it a good strategy?

Internal politics of SL should be kept out of battle plans to win the war as quickly as possible with minimum casualties.

If the aim is to capture Kili and have elections, it is a political goal rather than military.

It is not going to help SLA. We should attack unsuspecting area without doing what enemy is expecting.

I don't mean to stop offensives at horizontal lines, but we can slow down to minimise casualties while good teritory gain and effective killing can be done elsewhere.

Places like Puttur, Puliyankuam and Nedukeni should be targetted heavily now.

LTTE cannot move their heavy guns and troops that easily. However when they do we should go back to the horizontal lines penetrate them.

In short attack where they least expected to maximum gain. That will shorten FDL effectively and make it easier to kill infiltraters.

Your thoughts wellcome!

Rana said...

Panhinda,

If read your lines and inbetween, You are from CEB! Am I correct? Are you working with Chulanee on Nochacolai in Puttlum?

However, I am ex CEB bro!

Panhinda said...

Rana,

I am not from CEB. I have never worked in SL. :)

Rana said...

You sounded like an engineer, when start talking fuel prices and energy charges along with up coming thermal power station in Puttlum.

Any way good on you mate.

Panhinda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Panhinda said...

Rana, I read online newspapers. I think I am obsessed with things going on in SL even though I don't live there. I am planning to cut down my time here soon. Its not good for my mental health. :)

Amma Gahai/Gahawi said...

Panhinda: "Its not good for my mental health. :)"

Agrees with u big time! I don’t know how DW keeps himself sane when he has to deal with clown everyday! May be his SF training giving him the advantage over experts!

Rana said...

Panhinda, Amma G/G,

Totally agree, I also read all new articles about SL every day, specially about ongoing battles and defence related issues.

However, I do stick with longer than necessary. I just want to keep my self updated, knowledgeble and that is all.

Then it become fun rather than a stress, mates.

Amma Gahai/Gahawi said...

Rana, good 2 c u having fun here! No point getting stressed and personal anyway!

I used do feedback on Cricket articles in cricinfo and other cricket sites and I got bored!

And then I found DN and DW! I still don’t know a sh#t about war and ect just like most of the clowns here but this site is bit more fun and broad in topics unlike cricket blogs where u argue about a LBW whole day! And most importantly I get reasonable information about the war from DW and DN and should give a big thank u and a pat on the back!

And we got lot of clowns here to keep us entertaining!

Pottu said...

Amma Gahai/Gahawi,
Stop calling my dearest sons Peter, Sham, Kuttu etc a clowns.
They are not just some clowns, time to time do monkey dances too...

Hi..hi..He..he..

Amma Gahai/Gahawi said...

Pottu: I am glad ur still live! Seems like Peter, Shyam, Kuttu are all dead!

Can u get Navindran and V4Vaporized to do some monkey dance for us?

Hey Pottu, how is ur “potta eye” going ?? lol

Any virgin’s in ur suicide case platoon??? How do u teach an virgin suicide case to “blow the brains out”? : ))

Rana said...

Amma G/G,

I also did some postings to few cricket blogs before and during last cricket world cup, but that too boring b'cause most of indian guys are too serious.

We fought fericiously with some Aussie guys until that big farce at the final!

This one also getting boring lately b'cause lot guys have vanished into thin air due to losses incured by the tigers.

Rana said...

Pottu,

How is your leader these days. Must be sleeping well with the progress on peelam. Howmany shots of insulin per day now for VP? Soon he will be a VIP with RIP.

Go and check your future with a soothsayer to check whether it will be bullet, shell or missile.

Amma Gahai/Gahawi said...

Rana and all: I'm off for the day and catch u guys tomorrow! have a good one!

Rana said...

By the way Pottu,

Forget about the doomed peelam machan b'cause we checked your horescope wityh an expert. according to him you are in grave danger on 19th of December.

this what yoy can do, if you have any sense:

1. Pass exact location of your leader and time to SLAF.

2. If it leads to a succesful elimination of your beloved leader, you will become the leader and GOSL will transfer US$1000000 to your nominated account.

Enjoyed the leadership position untill 15 Dec. Then send all body guards to check the FDL and jump out. With one million USD you can have good time some where.

Now start thinking!

Rana said...

Amma G/G,

So you are only posting during working hours. Once you go home start right away hiding sausages with wife or what?

Good Bye Amma GG, take care until tomarrow.

v4victory said...

Hi everyone,

Everyone got good news. There were more than 25 SLA were killed yesterday and the day before. Anyhow, SLA captured Vannerikulam which was stratagically difficult for SLA which is really good news for most of us here.

The commando unit encircled Nachikuda by cutting off A32 road, tactically withdrew to vannerikulam.

Still some news is coming up.

Katch said...

"The commando unit encircled Nachikuda by cutting off A32 road, tactically withdrew to vannerikulam."

What do u mean?

If the ltte has done well, why r they running to T'nadu?

Rana said...

Hellow V4V,

god to hear your voice again bro. don't worry about nachchi it will be gone by tomorrow.

We will be thinking about Poonryn right now, then it will be Paranthan mate.

Any way how are you my friend?

B#1 said...

v4victory,

Don't be frustrated on these anti-LTTE comments. Believe me, very soon, LTTE will surely recapture all the land what they have loose to SL Army. Keep sending your funds to the LTTE. :)

B#1 said...

[machan munwa wadiya baya karanna epa. Poddak happy eken thiyapan. Ethakota thamai mun hamba karana hama thuttuwama LTTE ekata ewanne.]

v4victory,

You have a kind heart and a good brain not like other bloggers in this site. :)

Katch said...

V4V
India declared at 314/3 giving Australia a target of 516. Whom do u think will win? :)

Do u think the odds for ltte r better than that of Australia? :)

Pottu said...

Amma Gahai/Gahawi,

Pottu: I am glad ur still live! Seems like Peter, Shyam, Kuttu are all dead!

No... No... Peter, Kuttu and Shyam all are digging more of the rat holes for my and our leaders survival.


Can u get Navindran and V4Vaporized to do some monkey dance for us?

One thing at a time for the newbie, they have to master to be Clowns first then can do the monkey dance.


Hey Pottu, how is ur “potta eye” going ?? lol

"Potta eye" got some pain on still... it's difficult to work out who's virgin with one eye now. Well when our great leader
send us the second hand members, does not matter I have one potta eye or two.

Any virgin’s in ur suicide case platoon??? How do u teach an virgin suicide case to “blow the brains out”? : ))

Ahhaa it's easy... we send suicide platoon members to VP, so he can make sure with 30 years of experience those
members never will have any future. Their onwards they will want to take others with them.

Do not share the given information with any Sri Lankan patriots. Those are very sensitive info.





Rana,

Forget about the doomed peelam machan b'cause we checked your horescope wityh an expert. according to him you are in grave danger on 19th of December.

Easy you to say, all my earnings in my life came out of peelam funding. With few more years, could be a billionaire using American $'s
Do not trust the 19th Dec date. Might visit the hell well before that with current sky god's fire power.

this what yoy can do, if you have any sense:

1. Pass exact location of your
leader and time to SLAF.

We are working on some plan to send him abroad due to some burger shortage in Vanni.
Buns do not have any seeds on.

2. If it leads to a succesful elimination of your beloved leader, you will become the leader and GOSL will transfer US$1000000 to your nominated account.


Already it's a done deal, Wait for few more weeks... Then I can call you a bro...

Enjoyed the leadership position untill 15 Dec. Then send all body guards to check the FDL and jump out. With one million USD you can have good time some where.

Now start thinking!



Hi..hi ... He..he..

thambala said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Katch said...

v4v
Things looking pretty grim for Aussies mate with 4 wickets down for 52.

Do u think the odds for the ltte are better than the odds for the Aussies?

thambala said...

DISMISS DMK GOVERNMENT : SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY

here...

thambala said...

PRO-LTTE ELEMENTS HIJACK FILM WORLD RALLY

Check here....

thambala said...

PEOPLE,
WHILE ALL THE ATTENTION IS POINTED AT TAMIL NADU WE NEED TO HAVE OUR EYES PEELED FOR BOMB ATTACKS AND POSSIBLE COUNTER ATTACKS AND ATTACKS TO MILITARY AND ECONOMIC TARGETS BY THE LTTE TERRORISTS!!!

perein said...

Wow....BBC already smell the Killi would be a bigger blow for LTTE.
S Lanka rebel defence 'breached'

hype said...

STD is right. we must look at the bigger picture...

InSight said...

since this is a military blog economic matters may seem unrelated but as sri lankans we must ponder the consequences of the recent events

InSight said...

news seems lacking all around today wonder why.....

perein said...

InSight-
Could be waitting for the Killi news..

Katch said...

hype

What is the bigger picture u r talking about?

Shan said...

hype

pro ltte bloggers talk of bigger pictures but they never seem to see what's right in front of their faces

B#1 said...

EAGLE'S HUNT

Moshe Dyan said...

thanks b#1.

so the first SLAF attack in this phase of war was a retaliation attack. well begun is half done!

in october the number of SLAF strikes may come lower than sep.

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