A 'Context Analysis'

An old battle tank at EP. Source unknown.

The Sri Lanka Army's objective is becoming gradually clear with each day passing. The Army is trying very successfully to reach Kilinochchi, but that is just part of a much bigger plan to bring the entire Jaffna Peninsula and the western flank under its control.

Velupillai Prabhakaran must act before October Monsoons if he wishes to maintain hopes of Tamil Eelam. The Army's target is clearly not just Kilinochchi Town, though it is an important breakthrough along the way, but the more distant goal of capturing Paranthan, Pooneryn and subsequently Elephant pass in that order. This remains to be the main strategy of a grand plan to win the war. In addition, it is now trying to evacuate the last remaining groups of civilians from LTTE areas.

Needless to say this is potentially a very dangerous situation for the LTTE. It could release two more offensive formations and a Mechanized Infantry Division capable of offensive as well as defensive (holding) operations within a matter of weeks from now. It could also guarantee safe passage to the military and drastically improve logistics by linking the north with the south.

The LTTE must strike back before the Monsoon hits. It is imperative. If the Tigers wait till October, the Army would have reached Paranthan. LTTE units stationed at Muhamalai, Nagarkovil and Kilali and also along Nachchikuda to Akkarayan on the western flank would stand very little chance of survival against four of the Army's best Divisions backed by 1, 2 and 3 Special Forces Squadrons, 1, 2 and 3 Commando Regiments and the Air Mobile Brigade.

If this scenario develops into reality, the LTTE would have no real base to operate from, except Mulaitivu north. The Mulaitivu jungles have been systematically conquered by the 59 Division to ensure that a Thoppigala-like situation would not arise in the Wanni where the LTTE gets holed -up inside a dense jungle.

A guerrilla movement like the LTTE cannot afford to lose a base to operate from. It is not withdrawing like a coil to spring back at the SLA at an opportune moment, though it still could. Instead, it is being drawn into skirmishes on a daily basis and being stretched to its limit. It is now digging into its reserves from the Jaffna Front. This is a very dangerous phenomenon.

An organization like the LTTE must maintain a semi conventional military capability at all times to maintain its integrity and identity. This requires the maintenance of a reserve force. The cadres the Tigers are increasingly deploying from Charles Anthony, Imran Pandian, Ratha Regiment etc are exactly that reserve and these units are suffering daily losses.

The LTTE cannot afford to be relegated to the status of an insurgent or terrorist group. It would harm the organizations core value and identity and gravely undermine the organization's funding/support base.

The Army has got its work cut-out. Its must avoid Pyrrhic War by drawing-out the last of the civilians in LTTE clutches. But it can create only the conditions for such a release and wait. After all, the decision is in the hands of the people and the LTTE. The coming week would be crucial. All eyes will be on the two sides until the civilians are released. Once they are released, the International Community wouldn't spare much though to the fate of the LTTE. Its priority would be the civilians. This is why the LTTE holds on to them.

A situation slightly similar to this occurred during Operation Jayasikurui. Military operations stopped and the gains were completely reversed by the LTTE in seven months. They had the civilians with them that time. Is this still a possibility? The best answer to this comes from the silence we now observe in the battlefield and amongst the hard core civilian supporters of the LTTE. Predictions of a large onslaught completely reversing the advance have now stalled. Although it does not mean that all is now lost for the LTTE, it does still mean that the tables have now turned.

The ramifications of an LTTE defeat are colossal. Many powerful state actors would identify with such a victory and even secretly wish for it to happen in this tiny island in the Indian Ocean. It would send a powerful signal to other non-state groups who use violence as means of achieving power and control. Sri Lanka could become the first country in the world to have defeated a guerrilla/terrorist/insurgent group within its own borders in modern history.

dA and DW