By this evening the Sri Lanka Army’s 58 Division was 6 kilometers from the Pooneryn-Paranthan road. Military tacticians will aim for this road, instead of heading directly for Pooneryn; a tactic we have observed numerous times in the recent past. Tigers will be forced to withdraw from Pooneryn but would have to avoid annihilation by the Special Boat Squadron and RABS boats deployed in the Kilali Lagoon. Their best bet would be to escape towards
But the Army is not going to stop at that. It’s going to crisscross the LTTE and dissect it from top to bottom, left to right and every other imaginable way possible. During a recent briefing, General Fonseka explained the role of the newly formed Task Force 3 claiming it would move from the west to the east from Mankulam. According to our analysis, TF-3 is heading for Oddusudan via Mankulam, Olumadu and Ampakamam and will probably join the 59 Division in a combined advance on Mulaitivu. TF-3 is being led by Lt. Colonels Perera and Welikala who are absolute daredevils with a cult-like following in the Army. The 62 semi-offensive Division is also quietly working its way towards Kanakarayankulam.
As soon as the 58 reaches Pooneryn, the 53 Division will break out from its hold. Muhamalai to Paranthan is flat, open road, which the Mechanized Infantry Division is going to relish enormously. If the 53 breaks out, it will only be a matter of time until the 55 Division breaks out. Both Divisions are under two tough Commanders, one being Special Forces officer (from the time he joined the Army) Brigadier Prasanna Silva. So you have 8 Divisions going at the LTTE in eight different directions. But there’s more.
If LTTE loses Pooneryn and retreats completely from the northwestern coast, the Sri Lanka Navy would have nothing to guard against along this coast. The Offshore Patrol Craft, SBS and RABS units currently deployed along this coast can all be withdrawn and redeployed along the north western coast. The only maritime area the SLN would have to guard would be the coast from Nayaru North upto Nagarkovil. The number of RABS units deployed from Pulmoddai to Point Pedro could exceed 100. This is in addition to the OPCs, SBS, Dvora, UFACs, Fast Missile Frigates etc deployed along the coast and in the high seas. The SLN could create a virtually impregnable security blanket along this coast that will completely halt any LTTE arms ship from even coming close to unloading its cargo.
So the obvious question is, what will the LTTE do while this is going on? But the more pertinent question is what can they do?
The answer to the first question is diplomatic pressure. Diplomatic pressure from
Why won’t the Indians completely back this threat with actual muscle? The answers to the above questions are as follows. The current President of Sri Lanka, soon after he came to power, has freed
President Rajapakse, to his credit, made sure that
Another powerful actor is
But what about the LTTE’s military capability and its ability to remove the leadership of the country? The LTTE has been very successful when it could concentrate its attacks on defeating a single military operation. We have had many such operations led by, at the most two offensive Divisions. Each operation was met with stiff resistance. The LTTE would deploy all its assets and manpower and focus all its strategies and tactics on that single operation and confront it head-on, flank it or allow defence-in-depth. International support and the ‘goods’ coming from the northwestern and northeastern coasts sustained the counter-attacks. The Tamils in the eastern province gave it an unlimited supply of excellent fighters. The sea tigers were strong and innovative with large number of fixed and movable assets and high morale. The counter insurgency and counter terrorism (CI and CT) methods of the state intelligence was ill equipped, inexperienced and improperly led to face that challenge.
But now, the Tigers have to spread their assets (artillery, mortars etc) thin to counter 6 separate offensive divisions, which could soon become 8 separate offensives. The population it controls is down to about 300,000 which reduced its recruitment base. The northwestern coast was lost and the eastern province was lost too. It has to now fight tooth and nail to maintain some control of the northeastern coast. International support is as low as it had ever been. The political and military leadership of the south is too numerous to eliminate. Killing just the Army Commander or the Secretary Defence or the President won’t solve the problem for the LTTE. For the first time in its history, LTTE must assassinate at least 3 leaders in a row or single blow. Even if one of these leaders survives such an impossible attack, the survivor would have to only maintain the current momentum to be a large enough threat to the LTTE.
But the LTTE will fight. It will fight till it can fight no more because that’s all it’s got. It’s been over 3 decades since the LTTE chose this path. It may be too late to change. The LTTE has achieved very little in such a long time.
Therefore an LTTE Victory at this point is seriously doubtful, although it seemed possible a decade ago. Defeat is what is knocking on the Tigers’ door today. Mere survival is insufficient. History has no place for losers.
dA and DW